The best and worst pre­dic­tions of 2015

Bloomberg Businessweek (Asia) - - CONTENTS - ——Si­mon Kennedy

Many of the fi­nanciers and ex­ec­u­tives who fre­quent the World Eco­nomic Fo­rum pride them­selves on their abil­ity to di­vine the fu­ture. Here’s a look at which 2015 pre­dic­tions hit the mark and which were misses.

On in­fla­tion

UBS Group Chair­man Axel We­ber said euro area in­fla­tion would stay well below the Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank’s tar­get of just un­der 2 per­cent, de­spite quan­ti­ta­tive eas­ing. The an­nual rate fell to 0.2 per­cent in De­cem­ber.

On oil

Ab­dalla el-Badri, the sec­re­tarygen­eral of OPEC, said oil would sta­bi­lize around $45 to $50 a bar­rel. It closed the year at $37.

On the dol­lar

Ray Dalio, founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater As­so­ciates, was on the mark when he fore­cast a “short squeeze” would boost the green­back. The dol­lar did strengthen, gain­ing 11 per­cent against the euro.

On the Fed

Mor­gan Stan­ley Chief Ex­ec­u­tive Of­fi­cer James Gor­man said he would “put good money on a rate hike this year,” but he bet it would come in the se­cond quar­ter. The Fed made its move in De­cem­ber.

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