MALAYSIA: THE BIG END
Had Hamilton not suffered engine failure in Malaysia, he would have 25 points more and Rosberg three points fewer, which would have Nico leading post-Japan by ve points rather than 33. That’s a signicant difference in itself.
Taking into account the other failures is more complex, because it is impossible to know where Hamilton might have nished had his weekend progressed without incident. But let’s start with the scenario that least favours Hamilton – that Rosberg beat him in all the races in which he was affected by the engine problems.
In other words, he nished second rather than third in Spa, and second rather than seventh in China. And, if we’re removing technical issues from inuencing the championship, let’s give Rosberg back his second place in Silverstone.
In that scenario, Hamilton would lead by seven points after Japan; he’d gain three in Spa, which would be cancelled out by Rosberg’s extra three in Britain, but Hamilton then gains 12 for China. However, that’s the situation that most favours Rosberg. The odds of their three seasons together are that Hamilton would have won at