Chart At­tack

Shin­ing a light on our lo­cal model’s last months on sale

Motor (Australia) - - CONTENTS -

AS THE Toy­ota Camry and Holden Com­modore bow out of Aus­tralian pro­duc­tion (be­fore switch­ing to im­ports), the ques­tion now is where their still-sig­nif­i­cant vol­ume could go.

Year-to-date to Septem­ber 2017 – each lo­cal model’s last full month – showed the Camry held 58 per cent of its sub-$60K medium car class with 18,441 of 31,876 sales, while Com­modore snared 83 per cent of the sub-$70K large car class with 17,124 of 20,709 sales. Both Toy­ota and Holden have ac­cepted that each model’s re­place­ments won’t sell as well.

What are buy­ers turn­ing to, then? The sub-$60K medium SUV class has shifted 123,639 units this year, four times the sales of the sedan class which has 11 ri­vals and one big Camry leader. Medium SUVs have 16 ri­vals but no ma­jor leader – Mazda’s top CX-5 nabs only a 15.5 per cent share. Where the CX-5 class is up 17.7 per cent, $60K-plus medium SUV mod­els are up only 0.7 per cent, with the top Land Rover Dis­cov­ery Sport grab­bing 15.7 per cent of sales be­tween 12 ri­vals.

And so a trend emerges. The sub-$70K large SUV class has 20 com­peti­tors thrash­ing it out for 87,929 sales with a quar­ter of the year to go. And within the $70K-plus large SUV class, a stag­ger­ing 14 premium play­ers have been fight­ing for just 16,014 buy­ers.

With five op­tions in the Com­modore class, then, there is an op­por­tu­nity for fresh metal such as the Kia Stinger. Kia wants to shift 250 units per month ini­tially, dou­bling over time for 6000 an­nual units. An­other large car, the Skoda Su­perb, is also up 73.3 per cent, with 773 sales plac­ing it on track for a 1031 haul by year’s end. The Stinger and Su­perb might be no Fal­con and Com­modore at their finest, but in a highly frag­mented mar­ket the days of hog­ging more than half a seg­ment’s vol­ume look to be all but over.

There is now an op­por­tu­nity for fresh metal such as the Kia Stinger

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