Un­cer­tainty over po­ten­tial of rain

NewsMail - Wide Bay Rural Weekly - - News - Dave McRae Cen­tre for Ap­plied Cli­mate Sciences, USQ

AF­TER last cross­ing Aus­tralian lon­gi­tudes dur­ing late Oc­to­ber and early Novem­ber, an ac­tive MJO pulse is ex­pected to move east­ward across the In­dian Ocean dur­ing the next week to fort­night.

At this stage though, there is a fair bit of un­cer­tainty as to whether the MJO will re­main strong or weaken as it ap­proaches Aus­tralian lon­gi­tudes.

The MJO is a band of low air pres­sure orig­i­nat­ing off the east coast of cen­tral Africa.

It trav­els east­ward across the In­dian Ocean and north­ern Aus­tralia roughly ev­ery 30 to 60 days.

It’s a use­ful in­di­ca­tor of po­ten­tial rain­fall events (but not amounts).

Across the north­ern half of Aus­tralia, es­pe­cially dur­ing spring and sum­mer, a strong MJO event can high­light po­ten­tial pe­ri­ods of rain and act as a trig­ger event for sig­nif­i­cant weather events such as cy­clones.

In the mean­time, SOI values con­tinue to re­main in neg­a­tive ter­ri­tory.

As of Novem­ber 22 the 30-day av­er­age was mi­nus 5.3.

This is down from +13.8 at the start of Oc­to­ber.

For more in­for­ma­tion try usq.edu.au/icacs.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Australia

© PressReader. All rights reserved.