El Nino air, water yet ‘uncoupled’
SIGNS are pointing to an El Nino forming in the Pacific Ocean this spring, says Department of Primary Industries’ seasonable variability agronomist Dale Grey. “Only time will tell,” he said. “It’s still a bit early for the models to accurately predict spring rainfall and this is not being helped by the current El Nino not playing by the rule book.”
Mr Grey said the El Nino’s behavior was inconsistent with many other years.
Previously a pattern had developed and this was causing some discrepancy in the results of the 24-plus models used throughout the world to predict climate.
“What we have occurring at the moment is what climatologists term an ‘uncoupled event’,” Mr Grey said.
“While the ocean is interested and primed to be an El Nino, the atmosphere above it is, at this stage, yet to synchronise with the water.
“Although last month saw a few models think that this instability was enough to prevent an El Nino forming, the majority of models still put the formation somewhere in August-September.”