El Nino air, wa­ter yet ‘uncoupled’

North East & Goulburn Murray Farmer - - Frost Control -

SIGNS are point­ing to an El Nino form­ing in the Pa­cific Ocean this spring, says Depart­ment of Pri­mary In­dus­tries’ sea­son­able vari­abil­ity agron­o­mist Dale Grey. “Only time will tell,” he said. “It’s still a bit early for the mod­els to ac­cu­rately pre­dict spring rain­fall and this is not be­ing helped by the cur­rent El Nino not play­ing by the rule book.”

Mr Grey said the El Nino’s be­hav­ior was in­con­sis­tent with many other years.

Pre­vi­ously a pat­tern had de­vel­oped and this was caus­ing some dis­crep­ancy in the re­sults of the 24-plus mod­els used through­out the world to pre­dict cli­mate.

“What we have oc­cur­ring at the mo­ment is what cli­ma­tol­o­gists term an ‘uncoupled event’,” Mr Grey said.

“While the ocean is in­ter­ested and primed to be an El Nino, the at­mos­phere above it is, at this stage, yet to syn­chro­nise with the wa­ter.

“Al­though last month saw a few mod­els think that this in­sta­bil­ity was enough to pre­vent an El Nino form­ing, the ma­jor­ity of mod­els still put the for­ma­tion some­where in Au­gust-Septem­ber.”

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