ABS population data far too rosy
Don’t be mislead by that front-page article in the Pilbara
News (No exodus from city: ABS data, 6/6).
The Australian Bureau of Statistics data indicating Karratha’s population in 2015 was 19,235 was an estimation — not a fact.
The ABS estimation was made by adding to Karratha’s 2011 census population of 16,245 a positive percentage each year (2012/13/14/15) resulting from a general increase in Australia’s population by more births than death, more immigration than emigration.
This method of estimating population growth between censuses every five years results in ever-increasing population figures which will all be corrected once the real population is known from the 2016 census.
After the 2016 census, the ABS will adjust the previous estimated figures for 2012/13/14/15. These revised figures will be published about 12 months later in mid-2017.
It is very obvious that the population of Karratha has not increased, but has declined dramatically with the termination of the “boom” in 2013. We estimate Karratha’s present population is about 12,000.
The City of Karratha could easily take its own census now to obtain a realistic 2016 population figure essential for its own planning and the necessary personal planning and decision making of its own residents.
However, the City refuses to do so because, among other reasons, it does not want Karratha’s residents to realise fully that the “boom” has busted and Karratha is in a serious economic depression — times are tough, jobs are few, and the vision or dream of a city of 20,000 is disappearing. Mr Grylls and Mr Lally prefer to accept the ABS estimated population of 19,235 as real so their vision or dream may continue for at least the next 12 months. Then the 2016 census figure will be published and reality will bite. Ouch!
Meanwhile, I suggest that each resident and every business makes their own “guesstimate” as to the actual population and how many years before Karratha begins to grow again. Then, act accordingly — to stay or go, depending on whether you had a job, have a job, or could lose your job and businesses should decide whether to expand, contract or close. I’ll hang on —for the fun of it, but it won’t be funny.
Any comments, questions or ideas, call me.