Still a 50pc chance of El Nino sys­tem

Port Douglas & Mossman Gazette - - NEWS -

THE Bureau of Me­te­o­rol­ogy says there is still a 50 per cent chance that an El Nino weather pat­tern will es­tab­lish it­self in the Pa­cific Ocean in the lat­ter half of the year.

With the trop­i­cal Pa­cific Ocean warmer than av­er­age at the mo­ment, around half the in­ter­na­tional cli­mate mod­els reach El Niño lev­els later in the year.

El Niño is of­ten, but not al­ways, as­so­ci­ated with a drier than av­er­age win­ter-spring over east­ern Aus­tralia. Even if El Niño thresh­olds are not met, Aus­tralia may still see some El Niño-like ef­fects if wa­ters in the trop­i­cal Pa­cific Ocean re­main warm, the BOM said.

Sea sur­face tem­per­a­tures across the cen­tral trop­i­cal Pa­cific re­mained half a de­gree warmer than av­er­age over the past month. This is be­low the El Niño thresh­old of +0.8 °C.

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