Still a 50pc chance of El Nino system
THE Bureau of Meteorology says there is still a 50 per cent chance that an El Nino weather pattern will establish itself in the Pacific Ocean in the latter half of the year.
With the tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than average at the moment, around half the international climate models reach El Niño levels later in the year.
El Niño is often, but not always, associated with a drier than average winter-spring over eastern Australia. Even if El Niño thresholds are not met, Australia may still see some El Niño-like effects if waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain warm, the BOM said.
Sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific remained half a degree warmer than average over the past month. This is below the El Niño threshold of +0.8 °C.