Don’t bank on clear beef price

Tasmanian Country - - NEWS -

THREE of Australia’s banks are at odds over where beef cat­tle prices will be next year.

ANZ Bank said an anal­y­sis of the Eastern Young Cat­tle In­di­ca­tor sug­gested cat­tle prices may have set­tled on a new norm of 570c/kg.

But the Na­tional Australia Bank be­lieved the EYCI would fall to 500c/kg in 2018 and pos­si­bly lower, par­tic­u­larly with fore­casts of drier weather.

Ru­ral Bank’s Aus­tralian Cat­tle An­nual Re­view re­port said it ex­pected cat­tle prices to ease in 2018 be­fore sta­bil­is­ing at a level higher than the fiveyear av­er­age of 468c/kg.

All banks agree a re­build­ing of the US cat­tle herd is putting pres­sure on Aus­tralian mar­kets, par­tic­u­larly those of Ja­pan, South Korea and China.

ANZ com­pared the av­er­age EYCI of the past three years with that for 2010-2014 and said “cur­rent price av­er­ages re­flect a new nor­mal that de­mand from in­ter­na­tional mar­kets, par­tic­u­larly China, is driv­ing”.

But NAB agribusi­ness econ­o­mist Phin Ziebell said global trends were likely to put pres­sure on Aus­tralian prices.

“We still see the EYCI at the 500 mark over the com­ing months, although a good sum­mer would chal­lenge this,” Mr Ziebell said in the bank’s In Fo­cus: Beef re­port. FARM­ERS on the East Coast and the tip of the North-East should ex­pect rea­son­able rain­fall over the next few days.

Bureau of Me­te­o­rol­ogy fore­caster Tim Bolden said the state’s weather pat­tern for the next week was an in­ter­est­ing set-up.

“We are see­ing a break­down of a se­ries of highs, mak­ing it quite hu­mid and bring­ing a lot of mois­ture over Tas­ma­nia,” Mr Bolden said.

“Trop­i­cal air has slid down to Tas­ma­nia, hold­ing the mois­ture and giv­ing us these warm nights.

“Next few days will bring rea­son­able rain for East Coast, but the Mid­lands will be a bit shel­tered.

Mr Bolden said the fore­cast promised “some­thing for ev­ery­one”, with thun­der­storms across the state that should bring rain.

A trough ahead of a cold front is ex­pected to­day.

“Once that trough moves through, it will linger for a few days off the east of Tas­ma­nia bring­ing a se­ries of lows.

“With lows we of­ten get rain and winds.”

From to­day and over the week­end rain­fall is ex­pected across the state, with po­ten­tially heavy falls.

“The rain should come in bands, com­ing in waves at times and then eas­ing. It looks like it will be more con­tin­u­ous in the South.”

Mr Bolden said rain­fall to­tals for the state in com­ing days were un­cer­tain.

“It’s bit up in the air, but on Fri­day the South-West should re­ceive sig­nif­i­cant rain.”

Much of the state should get 5 to 15mm, with even more in the South and East.

To­mor­row should be quite wet in the far North-East with 20m to 40mm of rain, up to 15mm else­where.

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