Scram­ble to sell only short

Tasmanian Country - - THE STOCK REPORT -

BE­FORE Easter the wool mar­ket soft­ened lead­ing into the one-week re­cess.

This eas­ing en­cour­aged wool to be rushed into mar­ket dur­ing that week as grow­ers and bro­kers tried to cap­ture some of the re­cent record prices.

Un­for­tu­nately, this is a reg­u­lar oc­cur­rence. When we see the slight­est blip in a bull mar­ket, we tend to scram­ble over one an­other to get wool sold.

The re­sult? The largest weekly of­fer­ing of the sell­ing sea­son to date – a stag­ger­ing 25 per cent in­crease in vol­ume from what had been orig­i­nally fore­cast only a few weeks ago.

The Aus­tralian Wool Ex­change vol­ume fore­cast is very widely dis­trib­uted so our ma­jor wool-con­sum­ing cus­tomers jumped on this in­for­ma­tion and tried to use it to “talk” the mar­ket down.

And yes, the mar­ket was a bit cheaper when Mel­bourne sold in iso­la­tion on Tuesday, to the tune of 20c/kg to 50c/kg, ac­cord­ing to AWEX.

Re­ports from the room stated that the bet­ter, low-fault wools were the least af­fected.

The pos­i­tive thing is that the mar­ket sta­bilised the next day with most de­scrip­tions firm­ing slightly. Cross­bred wools were in fact dearer on Wednesday, up 20c/kg.

As some ex­am­ples of the mi­cron cat­e­gories from the close on Wednesday, 16.5-mi­cron wools were at 2943c/kg, with good types mak­ing north of 3000c/kg clean, while 18.5mi­cron types were at 2133c/kg and 28.0 lots at 894c/kg.

For the Meri­nos this is still great money, with all hov­er­ing around the 95th decile of the past 5 years – if you go back 10 years they are closer to the 99th – and it will take a few more weeks of losses be­fore we should con­sider this a gen­uine cor­rec­tion.

Vol­umes nor­malise again next week with around 41,000 bales fore­cast, 15,000 less than this week.

The se­lec­tion has clearly changed so the pres­sure is well and truly eas­ing on mid-break and sta­ple strength and is now mount­ing on lots with high veg­etable mat­ter.

We can ex­pect Tas­ma­nia’s bet­ter lots to con­tinue keenly sought.

I’ll fin­ish on an in­ter­est­ing stat I dis­cov­ered do­ing to­day’s anal­y­sis. From 12 months ago 18 and 19 mi­cron wools are up about 5 per cent while 22-mi­cron types have leapt 35 per cent .

It’s good that some of the pas­toral clips from the big is­land can have a piece of th­ese stel­lar prices. to be

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