Busi­ness con­di­tions “ro­bust”

The Australian Mining Review - - NEWS - REUBEN ADAMS

NAB has recorded a 3 point jump in its Monthly Busi­ness Sur­vey to +21 in­dex points for Fe­bru­ary, the high­est level since the sur­vey be­gan in March 1997.

On a trend ba­sis, the sur­vey recorded strong­est con­di­tions in con­struc­tion, min­ing, fi­nance, and prop­erty and busi­ness ser­vices. Min­ing and con­struc­tion were also the most con­fi­dent in­dus­tries.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said the re­sults in­di­cated that busi­ness ac­tiv­ity in Aus­tralia was ro­bust across the board.

“The sur­vey re­sults for Fe­bru­ary re­in­force our views on the out­look for the Aus­tralian economy,” he said.

“Af­ter last week’s re­lease of below ex­pec­ta­tion GDP growth data, the strength in busi­ness con­di­tions and lead­ing in­di­ca­tors makes us more con­fi­dent that Aus­tralia will see stronger eco­nomic growth in com­ing quar­ters on the back of LNG ex­ports, and busi­ness and Gov­ern­ment in­vest­ment.”

This would sus­tain jobs growth, re­duce un­em­ploy­ment, and put grad­ual up­wards pres­sure on pri­vate sec­tor wages, Mr Oster said.

“We ex­pect by late 2018 the RBA will feel re­laxed enough about the do­mes­tic fun­da­men­tals to cau­tiously start with­draw­ing the stim­u­la­tory pol­icy stance it is cur­rently run­ning,” he said.

“How­ever, it will de­pend heav­ily on the data flow and the risk is that the RBA will de­lay rate rises un­til early 2019.”

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