Feel­ing a hang­over com­ing

La­bor lu­mi­nary pre­dicts a clear ma­jor­ity is un­likely

The Courier-Mail - - FRONT PAGE - AN­THONY TEM­PLE­TON

QUEENS­LAND is headed for an­other hung par­lia­ment, with the LNP and One Na­tion in the box seat to form the next gov­ern­ment, La­bor el­der John Mickel has pre­dicted.

The for­mer speaker says both ma­jor par­ties are at risk of losing sev­eral seats to Pauline Han­son’s party in­clud­ing his for­mer seat of Lo­gan, a tra­di­tional La­bor strong­hold.

“It looks to me as if nei­ther side will get a ma­jor­ity,” the ALP lu­mi­nary said.

LA­BOR states­man John Mickel says Queens­land is headed for an­other hung par­lia­ment, with the LNP and One Na­tion in the box seat to form the next Gov­ern­ment.

The for­mer par­lia­men­tary speaker and QUT ad­junct pro­fes­sor said both sides were at risk of losing sev­eral seats to Pauline Han­son’s party, in­clud­ing his for­mer seat of Lo­gan, a tra­di­tional La­bor strong­hold.

Mr Mickel said Queens­lan­ders should ex­pect a hung par­lia­ment.

“It looks to me as if nei­ther side will get a ma­jor­ity,” he said.

“With both (La­bor and the LNP) their vote – in the 30s in the last pub­lished poll – that’s very hard to get a ma­jor­ity gov­ern­ment out of that.”

Mr Mickel said the seats One Na­tion had the strong­est chances of win­ning were Thuringowa, Mi­rani, Bund­aberg, Scenic Rim, Hinch­in­brook, Lock­yer and Bur­dekin.

He said if One Na­tion picked up sev­eral seats at the elec­tion it made an LNP mi­nor­ity gov­ern­ment more likely.

“If One Na­tion wins seats off La­bor, and La­bor doesn’t win more seats in south­east Queens­land, then the odds weaken for La­bor,” he said.

“There’s no chance of a La­bor-One Na­tion gov­ern­ment. But I hon­estly think it will come down to the cam­paign.

“If Pauline Han­son does what she did in WA, she will crack un­der pres­sure.”

Mr Mickel said it was pos­si­ble for La­bor to win in its own right but its Left-wing agenda might have alien­ated re­gional Queens­land, which would be cru­cial to its chances.

“The Pre­mier is pop­u­lar, she has an un­pop­u­lar fed­eral gov­ern­ment so the cy­cle is right for them to be re­turned,” he said. “But there is a his­tor­i­cally high rep­re­sen­ta­tion in re­gional Queens­land and re­gional Queens­land is soft for La­bor.

“To what ex­tent has the Green-Left image of the Gov­ern­ment hurt it in re­gional Queens­land?”

Mr Mickel said One Na­tion’s de­clin­ing statewide poll num­bers could be de­ceiv­ing.

“What tends to hap­pen in the in­ner ci­ties, One Na­tion does way be­low the state aver­age,” he said. “As you get fur­ther out they get above the state aver­age.

“Then you get pock­ets of re­gional Queens­land where One Na­tion does well above the state aver­age.”

Mr Mickel said the resur­gent party would do well in ar­eas with a “tri­fecta of pain” where cost of liv­ing pres­sures, low wage growth and un­der­em­ploy­ment were com­mon.

“Townsville is a ques­tion mark for who­ever is in gov­ern­ment, state or fed­eral, at the mo­ment,” he said. “It’s got the tri­fecta of pain there but it’s also got a crime is­sue.”

Mr Mickel said to watch seats in Rock­hamp­ton, Mackay, Ip­swich, the Wide Bay-Bur­nett re­gion and outer sub­ur­ban ar­eas in south­east Queens­land.

“Rocky is quite bad. It’s quite eco­nom­i­cally re­cessed, there­fore we think One Na­tion will have a prospect there,” he said.

Mr Mickel said La­bor had “a can­di­date prob­lem” in the seat of Bund­aberg. Bund­aberg MP Leanne Don­ald­son quit Cabi­net last year after rev­e­la­tions she hadn’t paid her coun­cil rates and drove her car un­reg­is­tered.

Mr Mickel said pre­dict­ing the up­com­ing elec­tion would be harder than pre­vi­ous polls, as com­pul­sory pref­er­en­tial vot­ing re­turns and the seat bound­aries have changed to ac­com­mo­date an in­crease in the num­ber of seats from 89 to 93.

CRYS­TAL BALL: John Mickel pre­dicts a hung par­lia­ment after the next state elec­tion. Pic­ture: AAP/ Clau­dia Bax­ter

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Australia

© PressReader. All rights reserved.