ALTERNATIVES COME WITH RISK

If the Liberals had an obvious leader, Malcolm Turnbull would be sacked as Prime Minister tomorrow.

Almost no MP thinks Turnbull could win the next election. He nearly lost the last one, lost the five by-elections last month, and has lost every poll in the past 23 months.

But if not Turnbull, then who? No alternative comes without huge risk, which is why the Liberals have been frozen in indecision.

PETER DUTTON

The Home Affairs Minister is a conservative former copper who speaks in the plain style that would appeal to voters in the marginal seats in Queensland and western Sydney the Liberals most need to win.

Dutton boasts of turning back the boats. That, plus his recent criticisms of African gangs and tough talk on expelling criminal non-citizens, has made his marginal Queensland seat much safer.

But stopping the boats was easy once then prime minister Tony Abbott set the policy. As Abbott’s health minister, he was less successful in selling changes to Medicare.

Is he now on top of the issues that will be central at the election – tax, debt, education and social welfare?

TONY ABBOTT

Abbott was a ferociously successful opposition leader and destroyed two Labor leaders. He would be fierce again in attacking Labor, especially on its electricity policies.

No politician is more battle-hardened or better at turning political arguments into sound bites. Abbott would motivate the Liberals’ conservative base, but would also mobilise their enemies. He is already unpopular and the media pack would want to destroy him again.

JULIE BISHOP

She is the most popular contender in the polls, but does she have the policy smarts to lead? She flopped as the Liberals’ treasury spokeswoman, and at the last election bungled in explaining the Liberals’ superannuation policy.

Plus, which Liberal MP trusts her? She’s also of the Turnbull camp that’s destroyed them.

So the Liberals will know whoever they choose will struggle to win the next election.

Here’s my tip: choose the contender who at least will help win the election after.

Pick a leader who can best restore the Liberals as a centre-right party, and set Labor the tests at this election that they can show a Labor government failed by the next.

So who would best do that and advance the true Liberal cause – starting now? No contest, really.