El Nino watch can­celled

The Northern Star - Northern New South Wales Rural Weekly - - News - Bureau of Me­te­o­rol­ogy

THE Bureau’s ENSO out­look has been down­graded from El Niño watch to in­ac­tive. This fol­lows a re­ver­sal of the early au­tumn warm­ing in the eastern trop­i­cal Pa­cific Ocean, and an eas­ing of cli­mate model out­looks.

The trop­i­cal Pa­cific Ocean is likely to re­main neu­tral with re­spect to the El Niño-South­ern Os­cil­la­tion in 2017.

In the at­mos­phere, the trade winds and South­ern Os­cil­la­tion In­dex are well within the neu­tral range. Equa­to­rial sea sur­face tem­per­a­tures in the cen­tral Pa­cific are slightly warmer than av­er­age. How­ever, far eastern Pa­cific Ocean sea sur­face tem­per­a­tures, which were sev­eral de­grees above nor­mal near the Peru­vian coast dur­ing March and April, cooled dur­ing May and June.

This warmth had the po­ten­tial to spread and de­velop into an El Niño event with global ef­fects, but eased as trade winds failed to re­in­force the ocean warmth. Other ENSO in­di­ca­tors also re­main neu­tral.

All eight in­ter­na­tional mod­els sur­veyed by the Bureau now sug­gest trop­i­cal Pa­cific Ocean tem­per­a­tures are likely to re­main ENSO-neu­tral for the sec­ond half of 2017. This com­pares to seven of eight mod­els that sug­gested a pos­si­ble El Niño in April.

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