Slow Burn’s a hot pick
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Good 4. All horses considered starters unless notified by Monday at 1 PM. (N/R) denotes no rating.
SEVEN runners, three of them from the Waller camp. No eachway betting. If you have any respect for money, you’ll be keeping your hands in your pocket. They are hardly what you’d call a ‘magnificent seven’. Four of them have had only one run and that group is where I have sourced my top three from because I think they are the 3YO’s open to most improvement. I ended up with a
Waller quinella – 5. SMILING MANOLITO (N/R) ahead of 3. KAONIC which is Schofield v Bowman, a High Chaparral a Savabeel. Interesting that
(Sydney’s form jockey IMO) rode Kaonic at the Farm on debut but is on Smiling Manolito this time – maybe he had to make way for Bowman, not sure, but if I was Schofield, I’d be pretty happy with my chances of knocking off Kaonic. 6. UNION DUES (N/R) will be better for her 3.3-lens 3rd of 6 to the exciting Woman here over 1250m on Sep 13. This race will come down to tactics as much as ability, look at the jocks – Bowman, Schofield, Angland, The Gun and Kerrin McEvoy. Wow.
AN EVEN less inviting race to be in is this one, just six runners. I settled on 5. INTUERI (65) primarily due to the gear change of blinkers first time, winkers off. If you look at his second-up run here over 1200m back on Aug 30, The Gun was taking a rails home on the chestnut and whilst he making ground, he (the horse) seemed a bit reluctant to really stretch the neck and go, go, go. I would imagine that’s part of the reason blinkers are on. It’s a big gear change and a winning one I think. Barrier 6 of 6 is
dilly of pickle though, I have no idea where he is going to land from there with a few others that will want to lead inside of him. Not that Intueri was going to lead but can he get one-one now? Hope so. I am all out on him; he just needs a good ride/run. 6. MATE STORY (65) will lead or at very least make some use of his inside alley and light weight. The Jean Dubois gelding led and pulled out plenty when required to win a 1500m C1 at Kembla first-up. He won on debut then came to town next time and ran a terribly creditable 1-lens 4th to Pelorus Jack – Adkins rode that day too. 2. CALYPSO BAY (68) best of the rest.
MARK Newnham is a trial watcher’s pal a bit like Joe Pride and Jason Coyle in that if when his horses trial well, they will reproduce on race day. Newnham’s raceday winners aren’t hard to spot at the trials either – it’s not like he goes out and there and tries neck them. Anyway, that’s how I see it all of which brings me to 7. STAR SENSATION (63) who is 4s 1-2-0. Her only unplaced run was a 9.-lens 6 of 8 behind Frolic and She Will Reign in the Reisling. Star Sensation is trialling like a winner, she comes via two very strong heats and was nearly the star of the both (no pun intended). I am a teeny bit worried about strong 1200m first-up but it’s Canterbury not Royal Ascot and I hope she gets as little pressure up front
is possible. It’s a good race this one, some of these others go pretty darn well. I (and others) were declaring 4. RENEWAL (62) on debut at Newcastle on Sep 15. In my experience, you don’t see horses trial like Renewal was then come out and lose. He’s a nice horse better than the provincials, probably better than the midweeks too. I could be wrong but maybe, just maybe, he wants a tad further? 5. ZA ZI BA (66) beat decent C1 line-up at Kembla last start. 6. BULL MARKET (61) has trialled up well and can figure.
THIS is another race that is a massive trap. I tried my hardest to tip against 4. HISTORY REPEATS (62) because I can see her one, being under the odds, and two, losing. She was gifted that 1800m at Hawkesbury at the $1.26. No pressure, no challengers. I concede that it’s a trip that brought out her best and you’d therefore think that 1900m around Canterbury with no real weight and Kerrin McEvoy up that she’s a good thing. I don’t agree but I got left with her on top only because the one that I considered putting on top, 3. TOKEN OF LOVE (67), left a me a tiny bit cold after watching that last run here, I thought maybe she should have won from there? Whatever the case, gate 1 is a godsend for a mare who will press forward and is 3s 0-2-1 at the t/d, last three runs! Any of others could win if circumstances present. If I was forced to have a bet here, I’d do a $5 duet – Token Of Love and 1. MANDALONG KISS (73) because I really, really, really can’t get beyond tepid in my support for History Repeats.
TULLOCH Lodge has another of the popular horses in this race, namely 4. STONEBROOK (66) whom I am much keener on than History Repeats a sit happens. This powerfully built son of Hinchinbrook won at Hawkesbury in Apr then was spelled. He trialled really well before winning at Kembla on Sep 23 in a 1200m C1. Please don’t think that it was a dud race given it only had three horses involved. The runner-up, Grimoire, is a good horse, Allied Power’s no slouch either. I love the way Stonebrook ran through line that day. This is the logical next step for him and as far as I see it, apart from 3. MARSUPIAL (71) the rest are inferior to him (Stonebrook). Bowman dons Godolphin blue here ride Marsupial. The well named son of Koala Bear is third-up now and back to the midweeks after a 3.2-lens 5th of 8 in the Heritage behind his unbeaten stablemate Viridine et al. Bear in mind too that Marsupial was 4th to Trapeze Artist in the Black Opal. Clearly he has a massive class edge over all of these on paper and he may yet well be the superior horse overall, but I just saw something in Stonebrook at Kembla and his trials before that, that makes me want to follow him a while longer. Of the rest, 1. OUR ROYAL EGYPTIAN (67).
SPEAKING of Egyptian’s I am mildly keen on 2. EGYPTIAN RULER (73) tomorrow. The master trainer Ken Langtry has found a super winnable and suitable race for this horse bearing in mind that he is 1s 1w at the t/d. A mark of how well Ruler is within himself that he was quite well backed to win the Port Cup Prelude on Sep 24. ran 3rd with 61kgs his back and okay, he wad given a great ride by Bullock, but he was very strong through the line. One more thing to consider – three runs back, he is 2nd in Taree Cup. 11.
BRACES (64) will win a race sometime, he deserves too. He is an unlucky horse and not always as a result of hi pattern. Trainer Greg Hickman has given the one time Grafton Guineas a lovely grounding to run the 1900m (it’s what he wants/needs) and keep in mind that Braces is 4s 0-3-0 at the Canterbury 1900m. If there was a huge blowout, I reckon it would be 10. CYRUS ROCKS (65). Remember he had like 85-weeks off the scene before the start of this prep for new handler Mark Newnham. He’s run three 5ths in a row, he is 3s 1-1-0 at the t/d – past life yes, but he seems to going along okay.
5. WHITE MOSS (75) is a mare that I have always had big opinion of. She is stakes class and soon. My colleague Matt Jones spoke to Jason Coyle so you’d best read what he has to say in the story below. As for me, I watched her trial at the Farm the other day and whilst I totally anticipated to run well, she ran beyond my own expectations. Tell you one thing, she’s well named – she’s gone as white as Subzero! One thing I am worried about though is her barrier; 9 of 12 is a big, big, big worry. Well, the sash for the most interesting horse running all day goes to 6. KHAN (75). It’s a big welcome back to the 2016 Breeders’ Plate winner who kinda lost it straight afterwards and was spelled after failing in the Silver Slipper and Black Opal. He’s trialled twice for this and ticked a few boxes. The market will tell the story, the whole story, with how Khan is expected to go. I thought 3. DISSOLUTE (72) was a moral first-up. He ran okay, some people made a few excuses for him but geez, I didn’t see much wrong with the ride; maybe he isn’t quite horse that I thought he was off his trial going into the run. Massive watch and respect for the stablemate 11. BEACON (70).
MY good thing this time is 5. SLOW BURN (68) but 100’s to run is it not? Tim Clark booked for the stablemate 11. ZONK (64) and he can’t ride both of them so one is out. I am tipping which ever runs; I’d say with the draw it’s Zonk here, Slow Burn stays home. Bit hard to give you a proper race preview when the top two are in doubt. For record I am Slow Burn to beat Zonk (see trial col for more) then 9. ACQUME (70) and 6. ISTRIA (67).
Khan. Pic Grant Guy