Dixie to change her luck
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Good 4. All horses considered starters unless notified by Monday at 1 PM. (N/R) denotes no rating. RACE 1 TWO very nice 3YO’s go head to head on debut here namely 4. ISUARIAN (N/R) and 1. ELEAZAR (N/R). I am sure that one of them will win, favour Isuarian ( just) which means I found the winner of a 2-horse race hence why it becomes my best bet. That’s my logic anyway. Isuarian is a Godolphin colt by Exceed And Excel out of a Mummify’s half-sister Byzantine whose two foals to race so far are Ottoman (also by EXE) and the stakes-placed Nemrud. Two trials at the Farm, both wins, both super impressive. Bowman, racing home, gate 4. As for the Team Hawkes gelding, Eleazar, he won a trial (his first) at Rosehill last Monday week. He ran 53.3s and seriously, he could have gone a fair bit quicker. That’s the sign of good horse. Outside of those two, 3. HIGHLY INFLUENTIAL (N/R) is a Gooree 3YO from the Mark Newnham camp that has trialled well enough to win most maidens, midweek or provincial, but he’s bumped into a couple of smart ones tomorrow.
HERE is another really good 3YO race, this time for the fillies. I have it the same as first race on the card in that I firmly believe there are two chances and if you go right way, you win. Enter one of my own personal boom fillies in 9. BALLET BABY (N/R) who is by Winx’s sire, Street Cry out of a half sister to Takeover Target. I declared Ballet Baby unbeatable whens he debuted at Canterbury back on Jul 5. She ran 6th of 8 so she was beatable as it turns out. She resumes here off a great trial – I have faith in her, lot of faith actually – think she might be a stakes filly. 1. SAVATIANO (N/R) is the other winning chance. This Godolphin filly was very good at her first campaign, she ran super in the Widden and the Sweet Embrace in between that, she split Invader Malahat at Randwick. Coincidentally, Savatiano finished 2.2-lens 4th to Ballet Baby in that Sep 22 trial, both fillies were outstanding. One of them will, nothing surer but for third I have the well bred Snowden filly 2.
BOOROOJ (N/R) who ran a great race in the Widden on debut so could perform fresh up tomorrow.
I NEVER bet in 2200m WF midweekers, they are dangerous in the extreme. This one is no different. I can’t believe I am tipping 2. WINE BUSH (67) after last start. Not that he was hopeless by any means but has now lost 15 out of 16 and make no mistake, he was entitled to win that last start – it was put on for him but nope, plods into third behind 4. KNOW
HOW (64) and 5. READY FOR SUCCESS (64). Why, how, can Wine Bush turn the tables? Call me the eternal optimist but maybe he wants the 2200m more than some of others do. Pass on the whole race actually.
6. TUTU (64) trialled really well back in July and August, sending out the signal that she was in for a big campaign. She ran quite well first-up, better again next time and after that – third run in, she went boom. Granted she was given a great ride by Collett and the opposition were a little suspect but she won 5-lens. I love a confidence boosting win for horses like her, lightly-raced ones I mean, and now John Thompson brings her town in fabulous order. This is the third time in a row she’s drawn barrier 4 – nice! I love the way 4. O’REILLY CYRUS (67) hit the line here last start when 3rd to Regimen in a 1200m Bm73. She is 1100m, 1200m and now
1400m. She should get a nice run there from gate 1 for Corey Brown. Peaking for this. 2. CAMBAGE (73) was beaten 37-lens by Bonneval in the ATC Oaks then spelled. The best system in racing (first-up out of a classic) added a $13 winner to the tally when she resumed massive winner at home at Hawkesbury. Came to the Rosehill after that and went super when 1.1-lens 3rd of 7 in a 1500m Bm76. Blinkers on again for this. Can figure in a typically open F&M’s race.
PESONALLY, and for a long time, I have always regarded Gwenda Markwell Anthony Cummings as the best two first-up trainers around place. The other thing about both Markwell and Cummings is that a lot of the time, the first-up winners they train are big odds. (Markwell doesn’t have a runner int his but she is pertinent to the topic). I am not sure what constitutes big odds vis-a-vie Anthony and Edward Cummings trained 2. LOOKIN’ AT YOU (71) but he ain’t gunna be favourite put it that way. This well bred 5YO gelding has won from 1350m to 2200m. He stays on really well. He was spelled for a short-ish while after his 3rd of 16 to Interlocuter at the Scone carnival which wrapped up a terrific prep for the son of Natural Is My Name. He ran last 9 in a Sep 25 heat over 735m heat; he went really well IMO. Godolphin galloper 3. DRACHENFELS (70) has always had something and it could be his time to start delivering; not that he has been disappointing by any measure. He won first-up at Newcastle the other day then went back to trials and breezed home in compelling order. 1. HIGH MIST (71) is a player but for me, it’s all about Lookin’ At Lucky here – pretty keen to bet him at the odds.
HOW interesting that the Daily Double leg tomorrow are both 1100m sprints and very, very good ones at that. Good, that is, in terms of having a bet – you could make a case for few each leg and be happy with the odds on offer. I like 8. INVINCIBLE QUEST (67) in this, he was awesome at Wyong first-up. He’s been a bit of a handful at times – hence the record of 5 starts for this 5YO but he has won three and placed 3rd at another. The only remaining run, took no part – bucked, etc, etc. The Quest is a flying machine (he once ran 49.37s to win at Cessnock 900m) but he doesn’t have to lead. We’ll just leave that to Corey Brown who rode him so well at Wyong. Any one of the 11 runners could win this race so the combinations are plenty. I have 2. TO EXCESS (70) running first or second; Tracey Bartley has the Duporth son flying and that was some run here on Oct 2. He just about should have won. 10. BEACON (70) is going to have fans and lots of them and rightly so but I am sensing he might go around at unders. Any price a winner suppose but I’ll take Invincible Quest each-way rather than Beacon win.
THIS race could look very different come post time than it does at present with a dual acceptor and 4 Waller accpetors. That being the case, it is all guesswork so let’s keep short and sweet; 10. TUMULTUOUS (68) on top after a terrific first-up run at the midweeker at Rosehill to beat 8. CHARMING LAD (68) off a well deserved and rather emphatic win at Kembla on Sep 30. Of the rest, 9. GAUGUIN (68) who won a Randwick 1200m heat in good style on Sep 25. The John Sargent trained galloper is third-up now at the right trip but he’s drawn out which means he’ll have to be used up early...... Maybe. Not a race that inspires; too many Waller runners.
NOW we’re talking! This is a great way to end the day, a Get Out Stakes – loads of chance, loads of quinella, extacta, trifecta combinations of you’re game. It’s not a 2-horse race, no way at all, but I am putting all the eggs in the collective basket of 4. DIXIE CHICK (67) and 11. ZONK (64). If I had to plan a betting strategy here so as to not to lose of course and make the most money possible I would be $5 won on both mares, $5 exacta Dixie Chick to beat Zonka nd $5 quinella just in case Zonk beats Chick. That’s a $20 outlay if you’re game. Dixie Chick would have to be one of the unluckiest mares race in Sydney town in recent times. Sure, a lot of it is tempo related but she’s been given a few less than satisfactory rides at times. She does trial well I’ll say that, but even so, these last two have been rippers even by her looft standards. Gate 13? I say a big plus for her actually. Zonk is the up and comer and she’s trialled super too. She is 2s 1-1-0 fresh, 1s 01-0 t/d 0-2-0 at the Farm. Too broke to back any others,
3. ZIN ZAN ELSIE (70) and 7. SHARPNESS (66) next in line.
Trainer David Pfieffer with Dixie Chick.