Elissim is a Smart bet
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Good 4. (N/R) denotes no rating.
4. WATCHING (N/R) is a sister to Kanga’s Eye who should have won the Gimcrack in 2017 for Anthony and Edward Cummings who also train this one. Watching is a colt with 4 runs and 2 placings to his name. He got back and flashed home at Newcastle over 900m on Aug. 16 and must have run some seriously fast closing sectionals. Ran last of 10 in that Aug. 28 heat at Randwick by design. Glyn Schofield sticks from the trial. Chris Waller may have 3 in this, or maybe not. His flashy debutant 3. TOUGH LARRY (N/R) wears the Winx colours. The trials have all been good, he has been ridden out in a few of them but better to be ridden out and close up then
running last. Barrier 3 in the small field, blinkers, he should be right there in the run, if not actually lead. ALTAIR (N/R) has been disappointing for mine, that is to say, I thought he was better than midweek class and he’s still a maiden.
MY top three picks are all acceptors at Newcastle today. For the record and whatever it may be worth, I feel that both 13. NAKEETA JANE (N/R) and 1. EXCELTIC will win their respective races if they go to Newcastle. The other one, 8. RHEINGAU (N/R) is in the same race as Exceltic at Newcastle — I like the horse but doubt he could beat there or here for that matter. I am 75/25 certain about Nakeeta Jane running and I hope she does. I have been waiting for her for a while. Her trials have been outstanding and I can tell you, when Mark Newnham’s trial well they run well, when they really well — they win. One little aside about this filly’s pedigree that I find fascinating is that she is by So You Think with Jet Ski Lady as her 3rd dam. won the English Oaks at 50/1 but 10-lens for Sheikh Maktoum. In regard to Exceltic, this is a big drop on class from his creditable G3 Ming Dynasty run when beaten 3.7-lens. Rheingau has trialled well. 10. CARIF (N/R) and 11. KOLDING are ‘watches’ here with the benefit of first starts behind them.
MARK Newnham again here for me with the Gooree filly 3. GENTLE PERSUASION (63) who was out of this world impressive winning on debut at Wyong beating 4. I’M SO SWEET (63) as it happens. She ran straight past said filly late to win going away and away. Gentle Persuasion raced handier next time when a neck 3rd at Canterbury in 1200m Bm70 behind Nuke and Bubbles’n’troubles, both of them very respectable horses. Gentle Persuasion has 9 9 here, I imagine the team would snag back and just hope for a fast pace last crack down the middle? Nothing wrong with I’m So Sweet who showed her progressive nature with a win last start at Gosford. third-up now and peaking. That said, I have 5. SHE’S FURLINE (63) as the main threat to gentle Persuasion. The win at Kembla was huge and you could find merit in the 5 of 7 in the Nuke/ Bubbles’n’troubles/Gentle Persuasion race from Aug. 15. Zero knock on 6. BANDOL (62) who was just too good, too fast, too well ridden, well prepared on debut at Hawkesbury.
2. GO BENNY (65) is ready and able to win now. This a perfect race for him at the perfect stage of his preparation. The Nathan Tinkler bred gelding has been with Kris Lees for his four starts this time in, placings at 3 of them including that honourable 2.5-lens 2nd to Dubaiinstyle at Wyong which is not really a track configuration suit Go Benny. Fit as a fiddle and in good spirits. The Chris Waller trio of 1. CORMAC (67). 4. PRESCIENCE (64) and 6. NIGHT BREAKER (60) are major players for the mere fact of where the are trained let alone that they fit and in form. I have won lost on all of them ate one occasion or another but as far as the ratings and form would tell us, Cormac is the one most likely of Waller three. Never easy to rank horses from this stable let alone when it comes to staying races; same applies tomorrow given that their form is intertwined. me? I’ll play it safe and bet around them for no other reason than when I saw Go Benny go across the line at Wyong, I said to myself ‘next time him’.
I AM a big 3. ALMANZORA (75) fan and was gutted with what happened to her first-up. That’s why it so pleasing to see her win at Randwick next time with James McDonald giving every chance to show her wares. No one is riding better than him at the moment. Glad to have on tomorrow. As for Alamzora, her form speaks itself — 2 wins from 5 starts, a 4th in the Woodlands and 5th to Shoals at G2 level. There’s stakes races for her this campaign, let’s just get through tomorrow first. 7. LITTLE RED SHOES (71) has been flying since she joined the Jason Coyle camp. So much so that the 7YO chestnut is aiming for 4 straight wins for Coyle on Wednesday. Coyle one of the best placers of horses in business and he knows what to start this mare in — 1000m races, so you can bet London a brick, he saw one coming from long way off. 4. PENDELOQUE (75) is a lightly raced and well performed mare with a winning draw (if good enough). Colt Prosser’s tough old stager 5. PRINCE MAYTED (69) just never seems to run a bad race and was 3rd to Almanzora last time.
I WAS very keen on 11. SEEBLUME (64) in the Highway last Saturday but she was scratched and fair enough too I guess with the rail out 10m. Seeblume started life with James Cummings then went to Kris Lees and is now with Joseph Ible in Canberra. She has a huge finish on her, goes okay first-up, and the 1300m is just ideal. I can see her storming home over the top here tomorrow. Fingers crossed. 4. TINY
TAJ (71) is a superbly bred mare from the Godolphin camp being by Sepoy out of Rinky Dink. Tiny Taj has rock solid record of 4s 3w. She won a C1 and C2 at Hawkesbury in consecutive starts to open this campaign and arrives for the right style of midweeker. Honest, talented and has been well placed by the camp who have brought her to midweeks third-up and clearly in form. 2. SAVAAN (72) and 1. VIENNA ROMANCE (73) are Saturday class mares both of their respective camps have elected for apprentices to take some weight of their allotments which brings them both in very well. If they all run this looks a pretty fast race which will play into Seeblume’s favour more than any other horse.
THE system did it again for (we) followers. First-up out of an Oaks was 6. IMPULSIVE (72) — and off a great trial — when she won easily at Newcastle fresh on Aug. 25 and what was the most remarkable thing that she drifted from $6.50 to $11 wit the TAB Fixed Odds. Hats off to lee Magorrian, he contributed enormously to the win. This valuable daughter of So You Think and Procrastinate has won second-up. Loads chances in the race, it’s probably the most open of the day and thus best betting race? Anyway, I have been watching 9. TEARS IN HEAVEN (69) closely this time in because she is a mare that I have always liked. I know the camp feels the same way. Luck is all that she has been missing this campaign, that can happen though with her pattern. I actually think the 15 barrier is a plus so she can get on their outside and have one clear crack at them late. 7. LASZLO (67) has hit bis best stride now, that was emphatic stuff at Hawkesbury last start. 14. PALMATEER (64) was an eye catcher in the All Too Soon race at Rosehill on Aug. 25 and is attractively weighted tomorrow.
ALL the interest on the day sure resides with the Hayes/Hayes/ Dabernig colt 12. SMART ELISSIM (70) who has tempted the champion jockey Craig Williams for a midweek ride on Kensington track. No wonder would follow him up here, the colt has a future in better races during the carnival either up here or in Melbourne. Won his first two like a good horse then was most unlucky in the Up and Coming last start. Takes on older horses but quality might see him through successfully. 11. GEM SONG (71) is another in the same boast given that he is a 3YO. this son of Your Song a Kris Lees/Gooree colt unbeaten in his two runs so far, one at WF, the other at Rosehill. Can I point out that Gem Song was beaten a length in a Beaumont trial on Aug. 20 by horse named Sneaky Fella who a few of us here in the office are attaching good thing status to in the last at Newcastle today. 1. ORIENTAL RUNNER (76) was beaten 5.4lens by a mare from the Waller stable, name? Winx.