Melbour ne Preview
NOTE: Numbers in brackets are the official handicap ratings for each horse. Expecting a track good to soft. RACE 1
2. WAIT FOR NO ONE (72) has never been one of my horses but I have liked the way he’s trialled leading into his return. He’s had two trials and, interestingly, in the latest he settled last and cruised into a close second. He gave a sight Blue Diamond and I reckon he’d had enough by his last run. I’m expecting him to run well. 1. AZA
ZEL (73) finished behind Wait For No One in a BD Prelude before his break. Given decent test to win jump out at Flemington last Friday. Ran well
his only attempt down the straight and has to be considered. 3. CAO CAO
(71) had a bit of a rap on him late last year but didn’t measure up to the better races in the autumn. He did beat the two above horses on debut in Maribyrnong Trial and his couple of jump outs leading in have been okay.
4. INDIAN THUNDER (70) hasn’t re - ally been tested out class wise despite already being a stakes winner. It’s a pretty soft Listed race the Queen Adelaide and he got there narrowly. Can’t find a jump out for him but blinkers on says they are serious.
2. DULVERTON (83) has found her best form with impressive wins at last couple and she appears to get another race run to suit with a few potential leaders engaged. All five wins have come at a mile but you’d be surprised if an extra 100m is an issue. Bottom line, this is no harder and if she holds form she takes beating. 7. WHYOUASK (68) has been racing well this time in and the step up in trip shouldn’t be an issue for her, she did have a couple of goes at 2000m as a spring three -year- old. I thought ran on pretty well behind Swampland last start and is a definite chance. 1. HELL OR HIGHWATER
(84) looked to have her chance behind Dulverton a couple of weeks back and I couldn’t see the tables turning on paper. But if she happens to get a soft run she’s capable of being there again.
5. FLORIDA PEARL (71) is an up and comer yet to miss a place in 10 starts and she fought on pretty well when challenged by Andrea Mantegna firstup at Geelong. Gets in the limit and no surprise to see her measure up.
RACE 3 I see no reason why 3. CROWN WIT
NESS (66) won’t be hard to beat after her excellent debut at Sandown. She rode the speed three and four deep and sprinted away when asked. Sure she’s up to Saturday company now but with 53kg she gets her chance to prove some of the proven fillies. 1. MA
DEENATY (77) is one of the proven fillies and she resumes after finishing down the track in the Golden Slipper. With claim 57kg isn’t too bad for her and she won a jump out down the straight narrowly and is the logical measuring stick . 2. CHATEAU GRIFFO
(66) is even harder to line up despite having a Group 3 placing against her name from her only start. No knock at all on the performance but she was 100/1 so it’s not unfair to suggest it could have been a fluke. If it wasn’t you have to respect third Limestone and Tulip. 10. LIVING DOLL (59) finished around midfield in both her starts in the autumn but I’m throwing in because she’s trialled nicely, winning
jump out over Wait For No One, and she might have improved with a bit of time. One for the multiples. RACE 4
Found this a very tricky race to as - sess. 4. SECOND BULLET (96) on top, he’s proven at middle distance fresh with his easy first-up 1800m win last time in and he’s very much a Flemington horse. My only concern is where he gets to the run from gate 10 but I’d like land he can land around midfield at least looking at the make up of the field. If that’s case he’ll go close.
7. MAGIC CONSOL (89) was unlucky runner in the event won by Paco - dali here two weeks ago. He bailed away behind leader and was going backwards when the runs were coming as he looked for a gap. The race was over rails run appeared. Shaping up well prior to that and while there are negatives he’s right in this. 2.
KILLARNEY KID (101) had two hurdle trials prior to his third placing the same event. He was afforded his chance but he did get a bit further back than I’d like with horse like him. If he takes advantage of gate two he’s a threat. 5.
ALOFT (95) is more than capable of winning if this isn’t a barrier trial as he’s acted well when fresh in both Australian campaigns. The market will tell you all about him and stablemate 1. BONDI
BEACH (106) whose two Flemington starts have been in the last two Melbourne Cups where he’s been a shadow of the horse he’s looked in Europe. RACE 5 I see no reason why 1. BEATNIKS
(92) can’t take some beating here after a very nice first-up effort at Caulfield. That race was dominated by the two up on the speed and she was very strong in last 100m winding up into third. She won’t get so far off them down the straight and gets a little weight relief after the claim. Possibly looking for a bit further but Matt Dale knows what he’s doing and a straight 1200m is more like 1300m. Good chance. 9.
HAY BALE (74) proved his close second in the Creswick was no fluke as he ran down promising Tahi last start. I’d say he’s drawn the right gate for a horse like him and with just 51kg he has to be hard to beat. 7. NIKITAS
(79) comes back from three starts at 1400m and while he’s been a bit maligned over his short career he’s consis - tent since joining the Weir yard and it’s best to keep him in mix. 6. LORD
VON COSTA (80) didn’t have the best of luck here last time behind Ability, he wouldn’t have won but perhaps he should finished a bit closer. Less depth in this event and he’s capable of improvement. RACE 6 Happy to go with 7. YOGI (75) who was probably beaten by the switch from the Hillside to the Lakeside and getting way too far out back . Ob - viously untested at 2500m but with his racing style he can relax and hit the line and any sting out of the track would be an advantage. Wouldn’t take silly odds but the one to beat. 8. CHEQUERED
FLAG (74) was really sharpened up by his hurdle debut and he sat on the pace before racing away at Sandown in midweek company. He might be afforded a similar sort of run here and is well worth including. 13. KAWABATA
(73) was dynamic winning two starts back but a bit flat last time when favourite in midweek BM64 with a big weight. That was only third-up so I’m bit forgiving and with a decent weight drop he’s an each-way hope. 2. BULL
ISH STOCK (80) was never really in the hunt in the Banjo final last month but on his previous form he’s entitled to another chance. Drawn nicely and is one to throw in the quaddie at least.
RACE 7 13. REBELLIOUS LORD (67) is likely to be well found after his flashing light third behind Portman at just his third start. Should have finished a lot closer after being held up, partly
own doing, at a vital stage. Bit of a tricky gate but he looks promising and is a very good chance. 4. ANDREA
MANTEGNA (71) is another on the way up, this one’s an import who did a pretty good job to run down Florida Pearl at Geelong at his first run for a year. Can only be better for it and if he’s not looking for further already
a threat. 17. BUT IT’S TRUE (65) is bit left-field but he’s always shown talent but has been going fairly this time in. The big change if he’s now with the Weir camp and he can coax
best out of him then could surprise here. 14. WAYANKA (67) got way too far his ground at Caulfield three weeks ago behind Nikitas but he hit the line pretty well into fourth. Has generally raced a lot closer so with a much kinder gate expect him to be not too far away, midfield at worse, and he is one of the main chances. RACE 8
11. SHOW A STAR (85) appears in a race he can win and he’s certainly performed in his two Flemington starts to date. He beat Portman back in March and ran a handy third at 1800m May. should be right on the speed, if not leading here, and that’s way he races best. Last time he did a good job coming from behind the pace and finishing along the fence. Back to mile on the limit he has strong claims. 13. COSMIC LIGHTS
(75) comes through Winter Championship where he was sound and a luckless third at Caulfield before that. I did tip him in a race that was called off last week but this is a different ball game. If he gets the breaks can be in the finish. 2. AMOVATIO (103) just failed to win Winter Championship and has been back to the jump outs where he was hard pressed in an 800m trial down the straight last Friday. Has a racing style that requires luck but if he gets it he’s a threat. 4.
RHYTHM TO SPARE (95) is little hard to catch and he was also in that bunched finish of the Winter Championship last month. Had his chance there but won seven races at a mile so can’t be overlooked. RACE 9 Huge watch here on 17. SIN TO WIN
(71) if he makes the field. Ex-Kiwi gelding – and raced as a gelding in NZ so the gear change is incorrect (seems to be an automatic thing with imported horses) – lightly raced and having watched a couple of his replays looks to be handy. I could only find one jump out since joining Lindsay Park and he wasn’t asked for anything so we’re a bit in the dark about how he’s going. There are some nice horses engaged here but no stars and if he has upside he should go close. 13. REVOLVING
DOOR (79) looked a good thing on paper last week at Caulfield but didn’t get the chance with the meeting called off. Not drawn as well here so may have to work a bit to get across but he was a certainty beaten last start and is a big threat. 12. PORTMAN (79) had the run of the race and got the job done as expected second-up and he’s likely to be afforded a similarly nice passage here. How Rebellious Lord fares in race seven will point to his chances and he must go in. 6. RICH LUCK (81) might be a little under rated because he’s built great record with five wins from seven starts. Had to like the way he picked them up when resuming at Geelong and he’s unbeaten second-up at 1400m both times. RACE 10 Staying with 1. ALL OUT OF LOVE
(72) who I tipped in the corresponding race last week . As mentioned, I thought his run had merit at Caulfield last start in a race marred by interference and he went to the line fairly well held together. Placed Kiwia before that with a soft run on paper he looks a good chance. 10. SEATTLE
PARK (61) came through the same race and he hit the line strongly with an unimpeded run down outside to be beaten two lengths. If he lines up here he’s an each-way hope. 3. SPAN
ISH REEF (70) had one go at the 2000m last prep and finished second but it’s fair to say she’s developed into a better horse this time in. Showed toughness stave off Ruby Sea here month ago and is in the mix. 5. TAN
TAT TRUSTING (63) is a bit of new blood into this race having broke his maiden at his second start in a midweek maiden. Looked the goods doing it though and the extra trip shouldn’t be a worry. If he can hand in a good spot again could easily measure up.