The weather was at least predictable last weekend, but at the time of writing there’s a storm heading towards Brisbane that may or may not hit Doomben, and be severe, so toss a coin for the track rating. Currently soft-6 so we’ll go with rain affected and hope the weather does its job. Assuming we can get the edge off the track, there is a ton of value to be had on this program. FISH ‘n’ SNITZ closed late on debut over the 900m scamper at the Gold Coast and should derive plenty of benefit for experience after doing some things wrong in the run. Bred to relish soft going and extra 150m is right up her alley. Drawn out wide with the rail out 5m is a query, but she should at least get clear crack at them out wide on straightening. Fair value each way at $7.00. SIENNA ROSE is probably entitled to be favourite but she is awfully short at $2.60. She battled on okay at her first start here two weeks back and it is no disgrace to have finished three lengths from the winner Hopes Eternal, his two runs to date have been sensational and he could be anything. The filly here is a query in the going, and she will need little luck if she’s one or two back on the fence on straightening. AETHERIUS put in a super run behind Pony Power debut at the Gold Coast but only plugged away on the heavy-10 last time. She still made up a little ground in the run home and could be an improver back to a slightly firmer track.
VALFIERNO is over the odds at $5.00 against a moderate R70 line-up and if the track soft come raceday I’d expect that to trim up quite a bit. He’s unbeaten in two runs back this prep, his latest a convincing win over a good midweek class three field including subsequent winner I’ve Gotta Nel carrying 58kg. He’s drawn the paint so he will either lead or track the speed in the straight and with Robbie Fradd steering should find some clear air when needed. Big show. CALKE ABBEY is a mile over the odds as well at $26, I’d have him around an $8.00 chance and although top pick will take a power of beating, I’d be having saver on this bloke at the ridiculous quote. Virtually all of his good results have come on rain affected ground, and his three runs back from a year-long spell have been pretty good on hard surfaces. Not all that far Just Orm, Ice Frost and Girl In A Million at three consecutive runs and he strikes the wet for the first time this prep? Don’t let him under your guard. LIPSYNC resumes tomorrow but hasn’t missed a beat fresh in three campaigns to date. Scored first-up last prep in slightly easier race, and she does like it wet. Drew a bad marble at the draw but she is in the mix.
This is take-3 for WUDANG BLADE tomorrow missing out on a run last weekend and getting scratched midweek, he pops up here in a tougher assignment with a better gate, better track condition and far price at $26. Got the job done first-up Ipswich earlier this month carrying 59kg to a comfortable victory in a lowly class one, but it’s worth noting he was stakesplaced last prep muddy ground behind a couple of handy juveniles and he clearly likes the sting out of the ground. Taking on a field here but there’s no way I’m letting him by at that quote. Great each way chance. GIRL IN A MILLION can hit the afterburners early and should be able to cross the field from awkward draw give them something run down. Won her first two back this prep before running some very solid sectionals and getting run down both times in the last 100m or so. With only 51.1kg tomorrow and the rail out she will certainly take catching, but there is a fair bit of speed underneath her and she may not get much of a breather midrace. Maybe a little under the mark at $3.50. SAINT PATRICKS DAY is another who missed his run last weekend when I was on, but he has a bit more to contend with tomorrow. He has drawn awkwardly and is up 5kg here 59 despite the race being no easier. Stakeswinner last prep on soft ground and has talent to beat these, but has to be right at his best to overcomes the obvious hurdles and looks a little slim $6.50.
CLASSY RUBY nearly pulled off the coup of the year for the good guys here a fortnight ago, rocketing home late to go down by less than a length at $61. Still, at $12 a place she gave us enough ammo to back up here tomorrow the more sedate quote of $14. It was only her second run up here off a long 79-week spell and she showed linear improvement off her first-up run at the Sunshine Coast. She has drawn pretty badly but she’ll be out the back in any case and be saved for one crack at them. She’s a High Chaparral out of a Grosvenor mare so the trip won’t bother her in the slightest. MISS ARABELLA ran well in same race beating Classy Ruby home by a long neck. She’s a lightly raced mare but is another bred to handle both the conditions and the trip being another High Chap, this time out of a Pentire mare. The $7.00 doesn’t feel like value to me, but there are deceptively few chances in this event and if you follow both of these mares again tomorrow we should get a result. KIRINI needs a few to pull out to secure a start but she will be competitive if she makes the cut. Just of place in Bm75 at Canterbury last start and will strip fitter third-up. Not disgraced in the Qld Oaks at the end of last campaign and the satellite stable up here are starting to hit their straps. Decent value at $9.00 if she gets in.
This first division is the stronger of the two class threes tomorrow and I’m taking a stab that MANSTERIO can run bold race fresh for the Chris Waller team. Loves it wet and ran a cracker first-up last campaign getting nutted on the line by Nemrud who is handy stakes-placed staying youngster from Godolphin yard. Looks as though he’ll want a longer trip to find his best form but his fresh form and record in the wet suggest a very forward showing here. Looks good each way bet at $11 from where I’m sitting. ISLA TRISTANA will also swell the exotic divvies if she can snare a cheque at $12. She has finished off well both runs back this campaign, and last prep she did show up in the TAB Highway events in Sydney. Extra trip looks ideal and she will be catching the eye late once again. DON’T DOUBT DA WIFE lost no admirers with a good run behind No Annamossity here last start over the mile. Better back to this trip, she’s bred to handle the conditions and from the inside gate should take up the running and give them something to run down.
This is the poor cousin of the two divisions with exception COLOSIMO who has a bit of class about her and a good win in the going. Struck winning form two runs back with very strong over Miss Exfactor and co before again finishing off strongly, only to have the tables turned by the winner. She’ll get back, the fence, and they are unlikely to be able to hold off her finishing burst. The $2.40 looks spot on and she should win. HI HARRY could give her a run for her money if he strikes his best form in the conditions. He opened his prep with an easy win at the provincials but didn’t run on as anticipated second-up behind Freddie Fox Trot. Competitive against some of the better 3yo’s up here last season and is capable of upsetting the fave. SEDUCTIVE DREAM is too close to Colosimo at $6.50 to warrant consideration as a betting proposition, but her form reads well and J Lloyd goes on tomorrow. Strong run fresh here two weeks ago with further improvement will be in the finish.
I have a knock on all of these for various reasons, and at the value I’m going to have a punt HELAROCITY take the next step into open class. He’s won both runs back this campaign in good fashion, the latest a narrow but impressive win in a Bm75 Saturday grade. He knows where the line is, has a good record in wet, and at $16 we can have a little each way not do too much damage if the results follow the market. TOO GOOD TO REFUSE was the eyecatcher first-up, running on from way out the back to finish just two lengths from Hopfgarten the line. He does handle the wet okay, and is a winner over trip, but I would much prefer him on top of the ground and out to 1350m at his second run back. Each way chance and not underpriced at $7.50, but is a risk. TYCOON ACE looks to short at $3.70 despite his recent successes and is another who would be better off on a firmer track. Bolted in last time in weaker class and will find this harder, but he does have a genuine hope.
I am a big fan of OUR BEEBEE as a racehorse and back onto a soft tack with run under her belt this is hers to lose. Late closer first-up when less than a length from Draem Finnish on the line, and set up a winning sequence on wet tracks last campaign that marked her as future blacktyper. From the tricky draw she will have to snag back and finish off late down the middle, but that has tended to be her m.o. anyway she will go close. She is better than the other two in the market and $4.50 is appealing. ICE FROST gets full marks for consistency having won four of seven to date and she did overhaul a talented speedster last time after appreciating the sit off a strong tempo. Not sure she is up to the top pick here on the score of class but she is in top form and should find a spot in your quaddie. MY GIRLD HAYLEY has finally drawn a good gate again but is up against much stronger field than she has met at her last two. She’ll run them along and have every hope but does look poor value at $4.50 compared to the top pick.
MYSTIC OPAL has had no luck with the weather this time in, striking dry tracks at each of three starts and finally (with any luck) gets her preferred conditions tomorrow. She’s fifth-up, which isn’t ideal, but she does grow a leg in the wet with four wins and placing from five soft track starts. Not far away at all hitouts this prep and if she is still on top of her game will give this a mighty shake. She’s a fair risk each way at $6.50. TORGERSEN was super impressive at the Gold Coast last time mowing down odds-on pop Dreams Aplenty to score a powerful win, but he’s up 5.5kg tomorrow and drawn a shocker. He also has a less flattering record in wet ground so I’m going around him, but if he can reproduce that second-up effort he will go awfully close. DREAM FINNISH will appreciate the extra distance tomorrow and she does go well here. Left in Torgersen’s wake last time over 1400m but has conditions to suit and should be in the money again.
The big speccy for the day here is REALING way down bottom at $34 to give some cheek fresh. Didn’t find his form over the winter carnival against far superior opposition to this, but 3yo season was very impressive. Finished very hard at consecutive starts this time last year to score back to back wins in town, and on fresh legs could produce a form spike over this shorter trip. PRIVLAKA is the testing material here on a wet track, and the trick with her is to get in early as she doestend to train off. Smashed them first-up last prep on a heavy-10 here over this trip and although drawn poorly she is the one to beat at this level with the edge off the track. Reasonable value at $5.50 and worth a saver. FIERY HEIGHTS will find these easier to hold off than Hopfgarten but his run wasn’t all that bad after making the running. Well up to this at best and while he invariably starts under the odds, they’re letting you on here at $8.00.