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The Sportsman Weekend - - Doomben A Detailed Formguide - WITH GREG SPLETTER

Race 1

The weather was at least pre­dictable last week­end, but at the time of writ­ing there’s a storm head­ing to­wards Bris­bane that may or may not hit Doomben, and be se­vere, so toss a coin for the track rat­ing. Cur­rently soft-6 so we’ll go with rain af­fected and hope the weather does its job. As­sum­ing we can get the edge off the track, there is a ton of value to be had on this pro­gram. FISH ‘n’ SNITZ closed late on de­but over the 900m scam­per at the Gold Coast and should de­rive plenty of ben­e­fit for ex­pe­ri­ence af­ter do­ing some things wrong in the run. Bred to rel­ish soft go­ing and ex­tra 150m is right up her al­ley. Drawn out wide with the rail out 5m is a query, but she should at least get clear crack at them out wide on straight­en­ing. Fair value each way at $7.00. SI­ENNA ROSE is prob­a­bly en­ti­tled to be favourite but she is aw­fully short at $2.60. She bat­tled on okay at her first start here two weeks back and it is no dis­grace to have fin­ished three lengths from the win­ner Hopes Eter­nal, his two runs to date have been sen­sa­tional and he could be any­thing. The filly here is a query in the go­ing, and she will need lit­tle luck if she’s one or two back on the fence on straight­en­ing. AETHERIUS put in a su­per run be­hind Pony Power de­but at the Gold Coast but only plugged away on the heavy-10 last time. She still made up a lit­tle ground in the run home and could be an im­prover back to a slightly firmer track.

Race 2

VALFIERNO is over the odds at $5.00 against a mod­er­ate R70 line-up and if the track soft come race­day I’d ex­pect that to trim up quite a bit. He’s un­beaten in two runs back this prep, his lat­est a con­vinc­ing win over a good mid­week class three field in­clud­ing sub­se­quent win­ner I’ve Gotta Nel car­ry­ing 58kg. He’s drawn the paint so he will ei­ther lead or track the speed in the straight and with Rob­bie Fradd steer­ing should find some clear air when needed. Big show. CALKE ABBEY is a mile over the odds as well at $26, I’d have him around an $8.00 chance and al­though top pick will take a power of beat­ing, I’d be hav­ing saver on this bloke at the ridicu­lous quote. Vir­tu­ally all of his good re­sults have come on rain af­fected ground, and his three runs back from a year-long spell have been pretty good on hard sur­faces. Not all that far Just Orm, Ice Frost and Girl In A Mil­lion at three con­sec­u­tive runs and he strikes the wet for the first time this prep? Don’t let him un­der your guard. LIPSYNC re­sumes to­mor­row but hasn’t missed a beat fresh in three cam­paigns to date. Scored first-up last prep in slightly eas­ier race, and she does like it wet. Drew a bad mar­ble at the draw but she is in the mix.

Race 3

This is take-3 for WUDANG BLADE to­mor­row miss­ing out on a run last week­end and get­ting scratched mid­week, he pops up here in a tougher as­sign­ment with a bet­ter gate, bet­ter track con­di­tion and far price at $26. Got the job done first-up Ip­swich ear­lier this month car­ry­ing 59kg to a com­fort­able vic­tory in a lowly class one, but it’s worth not­ing he was stake­splaced last prep muddy ground be­hind a cou­ple of handy ju­ve­niles and he clearly likes the sting out of the ground. Tak­ing on a field here but there’s no way I’m let­ting him by at that quote. Great each way chance. GIRL IN A MIL­LION can hit the af­ter­burn­ers early and should be able to cross the field from awk­ward draw give them some­thing run down. Won her first two back this prep be­fore run­ning some very solid sec­tion­als and get­ting run down both times in the last 100m or so. With only 51.1kg to­mor­row and the rail out she will cer­tainly take catch­ing, but there is a fair bit of speed un­der­neath her and she may not get much of a breather midrace. Maybe a lit­tle un­der the mark at $3.50. SAINT PA­TRICKS DAY is an­other who missed his run last week­end when I was on, but he has a bit more to con­tend with to­mor­row. He has drawn awk­wardly and is up 5kg here 59 de­spite the race be­ing no eas­ier. Stakeswin­ner last prep on soft ground and has tal­ent to beat these, but has to be right at his best to over­comes the ob­vi­ous hur­dles and looks a lit­tle slim $6.50.

Race 4

CLASSY RUBY nearly pulled off the coup of the year for the good guys here a fort­night ago, rock­et­ing home late to go down by less than a length at $61. Still, at $12 a place she gave us enough ammo to back up here to­mor­row the more se­date quote of $14. It was only her sec­ond run up here off a long 79-week spell and she showed lin­ear im­prove­ment off her first-up run at the Sun­shine Coast. She has drawn pretty badly but she’ll be out the back in any case and be saved for one crack at them. She’s a High Cha­parral out of a Grosvenor mare so the trip won’t bother her in the slight­est. MISS ARA­BELLA ran well in same race beat­ing Classy Ruby home by a long neck. She’s a lightly raced mare but is an­other bred to han­dle both the con­di­tions and the trip be­ing an­other High Chap, this time out of a Pen­tire mare. The $7.00 doesn’t feel like value to me, but there are de­cep­tively few chances in this event and if you fol­low both of these mares again to­mor­row we should get a re­sult. KIRINI needs a few to pull out to se­cure a start but she will be com­pet­i­tive if she makes the cut. Just of place in Bm75 at Can­ter­bury last start and will strip fit­ter third-up. Not dis­graced in the Qld Oaks at the end of last cam­paign and the satel­lite sta­ble up here are start­ing to hit their straps. De­cent value at $9.00 if she gets in.

Race 5

This first di­vi­sion is the stronger of the two class threes to­mor­row and I’m tak­ing a stab that MANSTERIO can run bold race fresh for the Chris Waller team. Loves it wet and ran a cracker first-up last cam­paign get­ting nut­ted on the line by Nem­rud who is handy stakes-placed stay­ing young­ster from Godol­phin yard. Looks as though he’ll want a longer trip to find his best form but his fresh form and record in the wet sug­gest a very for­ward show­ing here. Looks good each way bet at $11 from where I’m sit­ting. ISLA TRISTANA will also swell the ex­otic divvies if she can snare a cheque at $12. She has fin­ished off well both runs back this cam­paign, and last prep she did show up in the TAB High­way events in Syd­ney. Ex­tra trip looks ideal and she will be catch­ing the eye late once again. DON’T DOUBT DA WIFE lost no ad­mir­ers with a good run be­hind No An­namossity here last start over the mile. Bet­ter back to this trip, she’s bred to han­dle the con­di­tions and from the inside gate should take up the run­ning and give them some­thing to run down.

Race 6

This is the poor cousin of the two di­vi­sions with ex­cep­tion COLOSIMO who has a bit of class about her and a good win in the go­ing. Struck win­ning form two runs back with very strong over Miss Ex­fac­tor and co be­fore again fin­ish­ing off strongly, only to have the ta­bles turned by the win­ner. She’ll get back, the fence, and they are un­likely to be able to hold off her fin­ish­ing burst. The $2.40 looks spot on and she should win. HI HARRY could give her a run for her money if he strikes his best form in the con­di­tions. He opened his prep with an easy win at the provin­cials but didn’t run on as an­tic­i­pated sec­ond-up be­hind Fred­die Fox Trot. Com­pet­i­tive against some of the bet­ter 3yo’s up here last sea­son and is ca­pa­ble of up­set­ting the fave. SE­DUC­TIVE DREAM is too close to Colosimo at $6.50 to war­rant con­sid­er­a­tion as a bet­ting propo­si­tion, but her form reads well and J Lloyd goes on to­mor­row. Strong run fresh here two weeks ago with fur­ther im­prove­ment will be in the fin­ish.

Race 7

I have a knock on all of these for var­i­ous rea­sons, and at the value I’m go­ing to have a punt HE­LAROC­ITY take the next step into open class. He’s won both runs back this cam­paign in good fash­ion, the lat­est a nar­row but im­pres­sive win in a Bm75 Satur­day grade. He knows where the line is, has a good record in wet, and at $16 we can have a lit­tle each way not do too much dam­age if the re­sults fol­low the mar­ket. TOO GOOD TO REFUSE was the eye­catcher first-up, run­ning on from way out the back to fin­ish just two lengths from Hopfgarten the line. He does han­dle the wet okay, and is a win­ner over trip, but I would much pre­fer him on top of the ground and out to 1350m at his sec­ond run back. Each way chance and not un­der­priced at $7.50, but is a risk. TY­COON ACE looks to short at $3.70 de­spite his re­cent suc­cesses and is an­other who would be bet­ter off on a firmer track. Bolted in last time in weaker class and will find this harder, but he does have a gen­uine hope.

Race 8

I am a big fan of OUR BEEBEE as a race­horse and back onto a soft tack with run un­der her belt this is hers to lose. Late closer first-up when less than a length from Draem Fin­nish on the line, and set up a win­ning se­quence on wet tracks last cam­paign that marked her as fu­ture black­typer. From the tricky draw she will have to snag back and fin­ish off late down the mid­dle, but that has tended to be her m.o. any­way she will go close. She is bet­ter than the other two in the mar­ket and $4.50 is ap­peal­ing. ICE FROST gets full marks for con­sis­tency hav­ing won four of seven to date and she did over­haul a tal­ented speed­ster last time af­ter ap­pre­ci­at­ing the sit off a strong tempo. Not sure she is up to the top pick here on the score of class but she is in top form and should find a spot in your quaddie. MY GIRLD HAY­LEY has fi­nally drawn a good gate again but is up against much stronger field than she has met at her last two. She’ll run them along and have ev­ery hope but does look poor value at $4.50 com­pared to the top pick.

Race 9

MYS­TIC OPAL has had no luck with the weather this time in, strik­ing dry tracks at each of three starts and fi­nally (with any luck) gets her pre­ferred con­di­tions to­mor­row. She’s fifth-up, which isn’t ideal, but she does grow a leg in the wet with four wins and plac­ing from five soft track starts. Not far away at all hitouts this prep and if she is still on top of her game will give this a mighty shake. She’s a fair risk each way at $6.50. TORGERSEN was su­per im­pres­sive at the Gold Coast last time mow­ing down odds-on pop Dreams Aplenty to score a pow­er­ful win, but he’s up 5.5kg to­mor­row and drawn a shocker. He also has a less flat­ter­ing record in wet ground so I’m go­ing around him, but if he can re­pro­duce that sec­ond-up ef­fort he will go aw­fully close. DREAM FIN­NISH will ap­pre­ci­ate the ex­tra dis­tance to­mor­row and she does go well here. Left in Torgersen’s wake last time over 1400m but has con­di­tions to suit and should be in the money again.

Race 10

The big speccy for the day here is REALING way down bot­tom at $34 to give some cheek fresh. Didn’t find his form over the win­ter car­ni­val against far su­pe­rior opposition to this, but 3yo sea­son was very im­pres­sive. Fin­ished very hard at con­sec­u­tive starts this time last year to score back to back wins in town, and on fresh legs could pro­duce a form spike over this shorter trip. PRIVLAKA is the test­ing ma­te­rial here on a wet track, and the trick with her is to get in early as she does­tend to train off. Smashed them first-up last prep on a heavy-10 here over this trip and al­though drawn poorly she is the one to beat at this level with the edge off the track. Rea­son­able value at $5.50 and worth a saver. FIERY HEIGHTS will find these eas­ier to hold off than Hopfgarten but his run wasn’t all that bad af­ter mak­ing the run­ning. Well up to this at best and while he in­vari­ably starts un­der the odds, they’re let­ting you on here at $8.00.

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