Prince set to usurp rivals
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Good 4. All horses considered star ters unless notified by Thursday at 1PM. (N/R) denotes no rating.
JOCKEY Damien Browne won a Blue Diamond for Peter Snowden when he (Snowden) was training Ear thquake Darley. Brown, Peter and now Paul Snowden come together behind a very., very nice 2YO colt in 4. NEUTRALITY (N/R). A $400K Easter Yearling with some heavy hitting owners, this son on Sebring and G3 winner Dama De Noche (g rand dam of Snowden Racing stablemate Dracharys) won a trial on his ear at Wyong on Oct. 23. He is clearly a well educated and sensible colt who might be a bit above the ordinary. The big dangers are both from the Darley, now Godolphin camp, namely 5. STUNTS (N/R) and 3. HEMSTED (N/R). Stunts was last on straightening on debut at HQ Everest day but managed to cut the margin down to 1.7-lens at finish. She’ll be better for the outing/experience, the 100m added will suit — another wouldn’t have hurt though. As for Hemsted, he is by the aforementioned Ear thquake’s sire, Exceed And Excel, and ar rives here for the debut off a creditable 3,3-lens 3rd to Old Harbour in a Randwick 745m trial on Oct. 17. Bred for 1600m+
THERE is a lot of Redoute’s Choice in 8. REKINDLED
FORCE (61). He looks like his dear old Dad for star ters, he g rew up a few hundred metres from him and lives right adjacent under the care of Paul Messara. He has won his only two star ts so far and done with that little dose of quality reserved for horses that have a city if not even stakes future. Paul Messara said as much when we spoke to him on Wednesday — this is an autumn colt. I was a little sur prised Paul went for race over the Highway because it’s much harder but I trust his judgment big time and he made a good a point about racing 8 rivals rather 13, i.e. no one to get in his way. I actually changed my tips after talking to him, I originally had 7. UNFORGOTTEN (66) on top because I am sure she too is stakes class and she does have Ace High form (and probably should have beaten him at Kembla too). One of the two will win. 3. SPARKY LAD (68) is handy, so too 2. BEACON (70) and 1. MARSUPIAL (72) but there is an X-Factor to Messara’s colt.
2. TANGO RAIN (86) is consistent. He wins or places so often because of his race patter n. That patter n is to go forward/lead and go as fast as he can without busting a g asket. He is back to 1100m now at home off a freshenup after brave 1200m placing at Randwick on Se p. 30. I am worried about bar rier 7 of 9 and the fact that there is so much speed drawn underneath him. I am wor ried also about the 61.5kgs but this guy is a big, strong and bulky type so weight over trip the way he runs is perhaps less damaging than the draw. He is very fit and like I say, he’s at home coming back 100m so he gets the benefit of the doubt. 7. OZARK (76) is on back-up after a closing 4-lens 4th to Fickle Folly last week at Randwick on the soft track. This will be his four th run in so he should
at absolute peak of his powers. They ran 57.63s on slow last week which is good time and I cannot forget his awesome win at the Scone Cup car nival over 1100m when they went fast upfront and he just stor med over the top of them. There will be pace on big time here. 4. PICK
ME UP (80) is best of the rest. He was the plunge horse firstup and went close and is 4s 1-2-0 second-up.
VERY keen on the John O’Shea trained 4. PRINCE CHERI (93) tomor row, so much so that I have him best bet at Rosehill’s Derby day meeting. The French import had his first run for new trainer, that’s O’Shea, when a closing 6th in the Craven Plate. He trialled super before that run so clearly O’Shea has him going well. If he was at his best, he’d win by a hundred yards and while I am doubtful that he is at his best, I think he’s getting closer than he has been for ages. Hopefully Bruce McAveney can have a g reat VRC Derby day hosting Channel 7’s coverage down at F lemington with a win to 1.
EMBLEY (99) horse whom he part owns. McAveney would love his stats being a stats man par excellence, 1s 1w t/d and 2s 1-1-0 at the trip. Embley would surely only have to re peat his 2nd in
Hill Stakes two runs back to medal in a shallow race by comparison. He is likely to race handy to the lead again and he has car ried weight very well indeed throughout. 6. BLACK ON
GOLD (85) in on the quick back -up after his 2nd to Interlocuter last weekend at Randwick and methinks the horse that beat him 7-days would be $1.50 in this.
HIGHWAY time and we could save a lot of for m work and video watching and just tip Matthew (12 Highway wins) Dunn. If Bart Cummings is the Cups King then Matt Dunn Highway King.
has 1. REALING (68) eng aged and while I hold the utmost respect for him, am going with another of the very successful Highwaymen in Danny Williams and 14. O’LORDY (59) who I expect to rattle home down the middle or through the pack but rattle no less. This daughter of O’Lonhro has won 2 races so far, one a Goulbur n Maiden, the other May 6 Highway here over 1200m straight after. She last raced on Jul. 1 when beaten 16-lens in an 1800m Highway here ag ain but I note no public trials rest assured Williams will have done just enough to
her fit but not take that freshness out of le gs. Most others have a chance. I say
because the benchmark ratings are all clumped pretty much in 60s range. It will be run of the race stuff. So with that said, my danger (s) are 4.
UNDOAOF (65) who has drawn
4 and 3. I AM CAPITAN (65) who has drawn the rails. Tough race, Highways usually are, but I think O’Lordy might be the strongest at the finish.
RANDWICK Guineas place getter 3. IMPAVIDO (76) could conceivably have been in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday had things been different (talent I mean) but as it is, he is here, and he is ready to win. The horse is trained by Bjor n Baker bred on the same cross as Dundeel and while he isn’t in that league, I mention it because it shows that Bjorn knows how to handle the breed. He’s gone 1400m, mile (X2) with the bloke and gets him out to 1800m now which is exactly what gelding looking for. Each of the three runs has been better than last and you can’t ask for much more than that about a horse getting to a winnable race. Waller has 4 runners here and they are very hard to rank as usual par ticularly with the presence of the impor t/ first star ter 6. MORNINGTON
(72) who hasn’t trialled and when Waller does that with an import, man do they run a big race! I just don’t know enough about him to have him on top of stablemate 4. CARSZOFF (75) is second-up here off a massive run over 1350m up at Doomben on Everest day. Carszoff’s only
at the t/d was that close 2nd to Collateral and you might remember that day, he (Carzsoff) just ambled up to win but sadly got rolled. He may do better this time.
I FOLLOW the provincial pretty closely so I am very familiar with 11. PICARDY ROSE (66) and have won on her. I say not to brag but to emphasis why I am tipping her so strongly tomorrow. I have seen her finish like a shot out of a gun at times and feel that she might well indeed do here. I loved her trial, it’s how trialled before she won on debut at Kembla. I was going to tip her anywhere even if it meant in town. I kind of expected it be midweek but she’s ended up here a Saturday race with 50kgs! You just don’t see them go around with that weight much these days. When we spoke to Gerald Ryan about her, he pretty said, this is a tough ask for her but if they overdo it upfront (and look like they might) then she can run home strongly. Too true. Firstup winner in the past 10. MA
TANTE (66) is an intriguing runner also. She trained by Anthony and Edward Cummings and I get very respectful of this stable with their first-up’ers. This mare has talent and has had the two trials (very hard to read them actually) for this race. You don’t see many horses trial twice before an 1100m race but like I say, this stable are masters of getting them ready and they do it (win) at odds a lot of the time. 3. OVERSTEP (78) is back home after a passable run in G3 Northwood Plume at Caulfield on Guineas day. Is 2s -01-1 second-up and loves this trip.
JAMES Cummings and Godolphin hold the aces here with their Street Cry pair 5. HANDFAST (85) and 4. GRUNDERZEIT (86). Chestnut Handfast is a better horse than his record suggests, not that 19s 3-3-2 is poor by any measure but keep in mind that he is a Listed winner over Santa Ana Lane an and is multiple stakes-placed to boot. He goes well fresh being 4s 1-0-1 and his trials have been first class, especially that 2nd in a 1200m heat on Oct. 24. He comes off a 5th in the Glasshouse and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there are more stakes races ahead for him this time in work. Stablemate Grunderzeit has won 5 times all of them at Canterbury. He g ave a g reat sight first-up when 0.-9 lens 5th at HQ on Sep. 30 and has been back to trial since beaten 11-lens when 3rd in a 1050m heat also at Randwick. Good, tough, just in the behind speed horse, he’ll be close enough if good enough. 10.
MAGIC ALIBI (83) was a dual acceptor but trainer Gerald Ryan was very quick to scratch in the previous race target this one instead. That’s a positive signal from the trainer who gave the mare a good sell when we spoke to him just after acceptances were declared on Wednesday mor ning. Beaten 3-lens by Daysee Doom and Dixie Blossoms in the G2 Golden Pendant last star t and could it be that Ron Quinton’s mares quinella the G1 Myer also tomor row?
13. SIREN’S FURY (71). is a Jason Coyle trained mare that resumed with a closing 8th of 12 to stablemate White Moss in the G3 Nivison at Randwick on Oct. 21. Now 8th of 12 might not sound too flash but she was last throughout, on the fence, and boxed in between two horses for a crucial period up the rise and only got going late when it was all over people! The 3.5lens margin should have been about 2.5-lens but I guess it’s all academic now. am wor ried that she is 2s 0-0-0 second-up and the best yet to come for her, but those second-up runs were a 1.1-lens 4th and the other was in the G3 Keith Nolan Classic where she was beaten 8.5-lens by Dawn Wall but she did win the Albury Guineas next star t after that. Very, very well weighted for a multiple stakes-placed filly.
11. GALAXY WARRIOR (69)
is a noted backmarker so he’ll need the speed on as well. In fact all three of my tips — .3 . NEW
UNIVERSE (79) being the other — will require this race run at a good clip. One thing in their favour is that they can all reel off very fast last 400m and 600m splits and I wouldn’t really want them to be 10-lens off at any stage. Anyway, so as long as it is not a joke 1400m, we’ll be right mate.