Prince set to usurp ri­vals

The Sportsman Weekend - - Rose­hill Pre­view -

NOTE: RACES are as­sessed for a Good 4. All horses con­sid­ered star ters un­less no­ti­fied by Thurs­day at 1PM. (N/R) de­notes no rat­ing.

RACE 1

JOCKEY Damien Browne won a Blue Di­a­mond for Peter Snow­den when he (Snow­den) was train­ing Ear thquake Dar­ley. Brown, Peter and now Paul Snow­den come to­gether be­hind a very., very nice 2YO colt in 4. NEU­TRAL­ITY (N/R). A $400K Easter Year­ling with some heavy hit­ting own­ers, this son on Se­bring and G3 win­ner Dama De Noche (g rand dam of Snow­den Rac­ing sta­ble­mate Dracharys) won a trial on his ear at Wy­ong on Oct. 23. He is clearly a well ed­u­cated and sen­si­ble colt who might be a bit above the or­di­nary. The big dangers are both from the Dar­ley, now Godol­phin camp, namely 5. STUNTS (N/R) and 3. HEM­STED (N/R). Stunts was last on straight­en­ing on de­but at HQ Ever­est day but man­aged to cut the mar­gin down to 1.7-lens at fin­ish. She’ll be bet­ter for the out­ing/ex­pe­ri­ence, the 100m added will suit — an­other wouldn’t have hurt though. As for Hem­sted, he is by the afore­men­tioned Ear thquake’s sire, Ex­ceed And Ex­cel, and ar rives here for the de­but off a cred­itable 3,3-lens 3rd to Old Har­bour in a Rand­wick 745m trial on Oct. 17. Bred for 1600m+

the dam­side.

RACE 2

THERE is a lot of Red­oute’s Choice in 8. REKIN­DLED

FORCE (61). He looks like his dear old Dad for star ters, he g rew up a few hundred me­tres from him and lives right ad­ja­cent un­der the care of Paul Mes­sara. He has won his only two star ts so far and done with that lit­tle dose of qual­ity re­served for horses that have a city if not even stakes future. Paul Mes­sara said as much when we spoke to him on Wed­nes­day — this is an au­tumn colt. I was a lit­tle sur prised Paul went for race over the High­way be­cause it’s much harder but I trust his judg­ment big time and he made a good a point about rac­ing 8 ri­vals rather 13, i.e. no one to get in his way. I ac­tu­ally changed my tips af­ter talk­ing to him, I orig­i­nally had 7. UN­FOR­GOT­TEN (66) on top be­cause I am sure she too is stakes class and she does have Ace High form (and prob­a­bly should have beaten him at Kem­bla too). One of the two will win. 3. SPARKY LAD (68) is handy, so too 2. BEA­CON (70) and 1. MAR­SU­PIAL (72) but there is an X-Fac­tor to Mes­sara’s colt.

RACE 3

2. TANGO RAIN (86) is con­sis­tent. He wins or places so of­ten be­cause of his race pat­ter n. That pat­ter n is to go for­ward/lead and go as fast as he can with­out bust­ing a g as­ket. He is back to 1100m now at home off a fresh­enup af­ter brave 1200m plac­ing at Rand­wick on Se p. 30. I am wor­ried about bar rier 7 of 9 and the fact that there is so much speed drawn un­der­neath him. I am wor ried also about the 61.5kgs but this guy is a big, strong and bulky type so weight over trip the way he runs is per­haps less dam­ag­ing than the draw. He is very fit and like I say, he’s at home com­ing back 100m so he gets the ben­e­fit of the doubt. 7. OZARK (76) is on back-up af­ter a clos­ing 4-lens 4th to Fickle Folly last week at Rand­wick on the soft track. This will be his four th run in so he should

at ab­so­lute peak of his pow­ers. They ran 57.63s on slow last week which is good time and I can­not for­get his awesome win at the Scone Cup car ni­val over 1100m when they went fast upfront and he just stor med over the top of them. There will be pace on big time here. 4. PICK

ME UP (80) is best of the rest. He was the plunge horse firstup and went close and is 4s 1-2-0 sec­ond-up.

RACE 4

VERY keen on the John O’Shea trained 4. PRINCE CHERI (93) to­mor row, so much so that I have him best bet at Rose­hill’s Derby day meet­ing. The French im­port had his first run for new trainer, that’s O’Shea, when a clos­ing 6th in the Craven Plate. He tri­alled su­per be­fore that run so clearly O’Shea has him go­ing well. If he was at his best, he’d win by a hundred yards and while I am doubt­ful that he is at his best, I think he’s get­ting closer than he has been for ages. Hope­fully Bruce McAveney can have a g reat VRC Derby day host­ing Chan­nel 7’s cov­er­age down at F lem­ing­ton with a win to 1.

EM­B­LEY (99) horse whom he part owns. McAveney would love his stats be­ing a stats man par ex­cel­lence, 1s 1w t/d and 2s 1-1-0 at the trip. Em­b­ley would surely only have to re peat his 2nd in

Hill Stakes two runs back to medal in a shal­low race by comparison. He is likely to race handy to the lead again and he has car ried weight very well in­deed through­out. 6. BLACK ON

GOLD (85) in on the quick back -up af­ter his 2nd to In­ter­locuter last week­end at Rand­wick and me­thinks the horse that beat him 7-days would be $1.50 in this.

RACE 5

HIGH­WAY time and we could save a lot of for m work and video watch­ing and just tip Matthew (12 High­way wins) Dunn. If Bart Cum­mings is the Cups King then Matt Dunn High­way King.

has 1. RE­AL­ING (68) eng aged and while I hold the ut­most re­spect for him, am go­ing with an­other of the very suc­cess­ful High­way­men in Danny Wil­liams and 14. O’LORDY (59) who I ex­pect to rat­tle home down the mid­dle or through the pack but rat­tle no less. This daugh­ter of O’Lonhro has won 2 races so far, one a Goul­bur n Maiden, the other May 6 High­way here over 1200m straight af­ter. She last raced on Jul. 1 when beaten 16-lens in an 1800m High­way here ag ain but I note no pub­lic tri­als rest as­sured Wil­liams will have done just enough to

her fit but not take that fresh­ness out of le gs. Most oth­ers have a chance. I say

be­cause the bench­mark rat­ings are all clumped pretty much in 60s range. It will be run of the race stuff. So with that said, my dan­ger (s) are 4.

UN­DOAOF (65) who has drawn

4 and 3. I AM CAP­I­TAN (65) who has drawn the rails. Tough race, High­ways usu­ally are, but I think O’Lordy might be the strong­est at the fin­ish.

RACE 6

RAND­WICK Guineas place get­ter 3. IM­PAVIDO (76) could con­ceiv­ably have been in the Mel­bourne Cup on Tues­day had things been dif­fer­ent (tal­ent I mean) but as it is, he is here, and he is ready to win. The horse is trained by Bjor n Baker bred on the same cross as Dun­deel and while he isn’t in that league, I men­tion it be­cause it shows that Bjorn knows how to han­dle the breed. He’s gone 1400m, mile (X2) with the bloke and gets him out to 1800m now which is ex­actly what geld­ing look­ing for. Each of the three runs has been bet­ter than last and you can’t ask for much more than that about a horse get­ting to a winnable race. Waller has 4 run­ners here and they are very hard to rank as usual par tic­u­larly with the pres­ence of the im­por t/ first star ter 6. MORN­ING­TON

(72) who hasn’t tri­alled and when Waller does that with an im­port, man do they run a big race! I just don’t know enough about him to have him on top of sta­ble­mate 4. CARSZOFF (75) is sec­ond-up here off a mas­sive run over 1350m up at Doomben on Ever­est day. Carszoff’s only

at the t/d was that close 2nd to Col­lat­eral and you might re­mem­ber that day, he (Carz­soff) just am­bled up to win but sadly got rolled. He may do bet­ter this time.

RACE 7

I FOL­LOW the provin­cial pretty closely so I am very fa­mil­iar with 11. PI­CARDY ROSE (66) and have won on her. I say not to brag but to em­pha­sis why I am tip­ping her so strongly to­mor­row. I have seen her fin­ish like a shot out of a gun at times and feel that she might well in­deed do here. I loved her trial, it’s how tri­alled be­fore she won on de­but at Kem­bla. I was go­ing to tip her any­where even if it meant in town. I kind of ex­pected it be mid­week but she’s ended up here a Satur­day race with 50kgs! You just don’t see them go around with that weight much these days. When we spoke to Gerald Ryan about her, he pretty said, this is a tough ask for her but if they overdo it upfront (and look like they might) then she can run home strongly. Too true. Firstup win­ner in the past 10. MA

TANTE (66) is an in­trigu­ing run­ner also. She trained by An­thony and Ed­ward Cum­mings and I get very re­spect­ful of this sta­ble with their first-up’ers. This mare has tal­ent and has had the two tri­als (very hard to read them ac­tu­ally) for this race. You don’t see many horses trial twice be­fore an 1100m race but like I say, this sta­ble are masters of get­ting them ready and they do it (win) at odds a lot of the time. 3. OVER­STEP (78) is back home af­ter a pass­able run in G3 Northwood Plume at Caulfield on Guineas day. Is 2s -01-1 sec­ond-up and loves this trip.

RACE 8

JAMES Cum­mings and Godol­phin hold the aces here with their Street Cry pair 5. HAND­FAST (85) and 4. GRUN­DERZEIT (86). Chest­nut Hand­fast is a bet­ter horse than his record sug­gests, not that 19s 3-3-2 is poor by any mea­sure but keep in mind that he is a Listed win­ner over Santa Ana Lane an and is mul­ti­ple stakes-placed to boot. He goes well fresh be­ing 4s 1-0-1 and his tri­als have been first class, es­pe­cially that 2nd in a 1200m heat on Oct. 24. He comes off a 5th in the Glasshouse and I wouldn’t be at all sur­prised if there are more stakes races ahead for him this time in work. Sta­ble­mate Grun­derzeit has won 5 times all of them at Can­ter­bury. He g ave a g reat sight first-up when 0.-9 lens 5th at HQ on Sep. 30 and has been back to trial since beaten 11-lens when 3rd in a 1050m heat also at Rand­wick. Good, tough, just in the be­hind speed horse, he’ll be close enough if good enough. 10.

MAGIC AL­IBI (83) was a dual ac­cep­tor but trainer Gerald Ryan was very quick to scratch in the previous race tar­get this one in­stead. That’s a pos­i­tive sig­nal from the trainer who gave the mare a good sell when we spoke to him just af­ter ac­cep­tances were de­clared on Wed­nes­day mor ning. Beaten 3-lens by Day­see Doom and Dixie Blos­soms in the G2 Golden Pen­dant last star t and could it be that Ron Quin­ton’s mares quinella the G1 Myer also to­mor row?

RACE 9

13. SIREN’S FURY (71). is a Ja­son Coyle trained mare that re­sumed with a clos­ing 8th of 12 to sta­ble­mate White Moss in the G3 Nivi­son at Rand­wick on Oct. 21. Now 8th of 12 might not sound too flash but she was last through­out, on the fence, and boxed in be­tween two horses for a cru­cial pe­riod up the rise and only got go­ing late when it was all over peo­ple! The 3.5lens mar­gin should have been about 2.5-lens but I guess it’s all aca­demic now. am wor ried that she is 2s 0-0-0 sec­ond-up and the best yet to come for her, but those sec­ond-up runs were a 1.1-lens 4th and the other was in the G3 Keith Nolan Clas­sic where she was beaten 8.5-lens by Dawn Wall but she did win the Al­bury Guineas next star t af­ter that. Very, very well weighted for a mul­ti­ple stakes-placed filly.

11. GALAXY WAR­RIOR (69)

is a noted back­marker so he’ll need the speed on as well. In fact all three of my tips — .3 . NEW

UNI­VERSE (79) be­ing the other — will re­quire this race run at a good clip. One thing in their favour is that they can all reel off very fast last 400m and 600m splits and I wouldn’t re­ally want them to be 10-lens off at any stage. Any­way, so as long as it is not a joke 1400m, we’ll be right mate.

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