Analysis of this race has been made considerably harder by the presence of rain, but at least this weekend we can be certain we’ll be racing on a wet track. ANTON EN AVANT has been racing against My Giuliano at his last couple and although beaten comfortably two weeks ago on the heavy-10, he was too good for him the run prior. He excels a wet surface and gets a 2.5kg turnaround at weights thanks to the claim. MAGNATUNE would not be competitive with several of these on top of the ground but in very wet conditions he has a hope knocking them all out. Huge run behind Frespanol when resuming at Bradmanlike odds, then far from disgraced stepping up sharply to 1800m and beating all but Sheza Lily. Granted it was a Bm75 he shouldered 62kg and drops 9kg into this open event. Seven of his eight wins have been on wet tracks and he is right in it. MY GIULIANO will go wherever Anton En Avant goes. They race near to each other back off the speed and make their runs together. He likes it wet as well, but he is now up to 59kg and up at this end the effect of weight increases not linear. Has a genuine hope of bringing up his hattrick but I’ll back him out.
Super keen on the toppy I’VE GOTTA NEL here and at $4.00 is some of the best value on the card. All three runs this prep have been sound including his latest placing when he did the work out in front only to get overhauled by Amanaat. He hasn’t faced anything this easy since he opened his winning account back at the beginning of year and certainly deserves the 59kg allotted. He loves it wet and I don’t see them catching him. WUDANG BLADE continues to race well for us and he is another who loves it wet. Struggled pick up a couple of very handy three-year-olds here last start but was only narrowly beaten at his previous two. Stakes-placed here on the heavy back in May and probably comes across to take the sit behind the top pick. He should be shorter than the $12 and looks a nice each way bet a must for multiples. SNITZEL’S JOY will find this easier than her last couple in similar grade. Tried hard behind Girl In A Million then knocked up behind her and Just Orm and has been given a breather. She also get across from an awkward draw and will be up in the first four and that’s possibly place to be on a track which could be anything from a soft-7 to a heavy-10.
Not a whole lot of interest here with juveniles on a bog track but as is the case often as not I’ll stick with exposed form. MIRACLES APLENTY is already a winner in a quagmire beating three rivals at Toowoomba in October and wasn’t far from victory here last start behind Rosa’s Charm. Back against the boys here who have had collectively zero starts between them and at $5.50 is as good as any. PHOENIX SHADOW is an interesting first starter who caught my eye at the price. Scored a narrow trial win here last month and has drawn well for his debut. I don’t mind the breed, the stable is going very and at $23 could give some cheek if he sneaks into the field. MISHANI KRISHNA debuted with a tidy win in a small field at Toowoomba fortnight ago over the 870m scamper. This is harder but from the good draw and with conditions to suit she in the mix.
All the interest here is down in the weights and COURTZA KING can bounce back with a win tomorrow following a close-up run behind Fiery Heights at class six level. Some truly brilliant riding by Jim Byrne in the early stages got him up on fence behind the leaders straightening and he out in time to have a crack at front pair. He only missed by a neck or so and with decent credentials in the wet J Byrne sticking solid he will be very hard to hold out. I could have a whinge about the $3.60, but it’s not so much poor value as indicative of the lack of depth to the race. RINGO’S A ROCKSTAR has that style racing that will nearly always have you tearing your hair out but on his day he is a very smart customer. He’s been in the stewards’ reports at nine of his last 10 outings as he gets back and invariably strikes trouble, but he does love it wet and has been hitting the line with gusto. Took plenty of ground off them last time in a Bm75 and drops 5kg into this tomorrow. If you could get a guarantee he wouldn’t strike trouble he’d be a clear favourite. MISHANI EL LOBO is rarely far from the action and was just behind a handy trio in Amanaat’s class six last start. Been up for a while but he is still producing results and is one for exotics players.
PRETTY FAST is back up here looking for her fourth consecutive win and I think she’s the best bet I’ve seen a good while at the $2.30. Brought up her hat-trick in town last start with a tidy half length win over a Bm74 field, and her previous two were both on wet tracks at Newcastle. Struggled with bad luck her first campaign where we saw her up here, but she has blossomed into a real winner as a three-year-old and with local lad Damian Browne on top should justify my confidence. There are a couple of fillies here I have time for but I just can’t see them pushing the fave. DREAM KISSES and COOROI CHASE ran the quinella here last start, though latter had a four length margin on line. The former has shown up in good company in the past and back to the level weights there won’t be nearly as much between them this time round.
When you’re on a good thing you really have to stick to it and NO ANNAMOSSITY has done wonders for us in the last couple of months. As soon as he stepped beyond 1350m he’s knocked up winning races and lines up here to add another paling to his picket fence. Came from a mile back last start when he had a few crosses against him – he’d been freshened up and was dropping back in distance – but still hit the line strongly to finish over top of Super Suave. Beat subsequent winner Don’t Doubt Da Wife the run prior and in an underwhelming class six he is great value at $3.60. AQUA VITE the only one threatening him in market but his form has been much easier company, and almost none of it has been winning form. Beaten out a place in an R70 last start won by Revaldor and his previous run was similar defeat in the same class. That’s a good way below class six level, and worth just half the prizemoney, but he’s the only reason we’re getting more than $2.20 about the top pick so let’s hope he runs. If you’re looking for something to add to these two your multiples, EIGHT BELOW ran a solid race behind No Annamossity last time after missing the kick and should get through ground okay.
Many here who could win this with a moderate form spike but in the end I keep coming back to class to carry us to victory. CAPITAL GAIN ran several good races through the winter carnival at the end of last season before capping it off with a super win in the Group One JJ Atkins over subsequent G1 winner Aloisia. Has a strong record on wet tracks and is thrown in level weights against these. It’s tough to overlook a last start G1 winner at $8.00 on level terms. BRING IT HOME POP has now won three in a row after a gutsy fresh victory over St Patricks Day last time. Bred to love it wet and three of his four victories have been in wet ground. PIERATA has come up favourite and there’s plenty to like about his form, though he looks a little under the odds at $3.30. Beaten into 7th spot behind Caital Gain in the JJ Atkins at the end of last prep after a distant third to Melody Belle in the Sires. Easy trial winner in Sydney a couple of weeks ago and should go well.
Great value here in UPSTART PRIDE who chased home tomorrow’s favourite last start and will strip fitter for the run. He tracked him all the way over 1200m while beaten three lengths on the line he does get a 2kg turnaround and I see more upside for him than fave. It’s not so long ago I watched this bloke lead good fields with contempt and blow them away, and at $26 he will give you an awesome run for your money. CALANDA has plenty of ability and hasn’t been far away in two stakes-level appearances over the Melbourne spring carnival. Last season’s Ramornie winner at Grafton who has drawn well and loves it wet. MONSIEUR GUSTAVE has drawn out a lot further this week but it’s hard to knock a sprinter going for his fourth stakes win in a row. I’m not sure Tiffani Brooker will want to burn the fuel required to cross Upstart Pride who has drawn directly inside him, and that decision will put them one out facing the breeze.
We can finish off the day with a big winner here in I’M A RIPPA who goes around at the silly odds of $11 and will give a ton of cheek. He has never missed place first-up and beat The Ambassadore fresh last campaign, and he was also stakes-placed in the Qld Day Plate beating home Crack Me Up among others. He has never won in the wet but has placed four times including the Listed run and mixed it with some of our better 3yo’s up here in the autumn, and he jumps out this lowly class three with a half kilo over limit. Get on. CARE TO THINK is shooting for a hat-trick after winning his last two before a break. Beat a moderate 3yo field up here before win in a TAB Highway which Matt Dunn has made his own. DOWNLOADING is another who steps out here looking for a hat-trick and while he’s not as class as the top pick he is in great touch this prep. Beat them comfortably in grade at Ipswich last start including tomorrow’s second favourite and will be there at the business end. SPME01Z01MA - V1