Red’s poised to Excite
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Good 4. All horses considered starters unless notified by Thursday at 1 PM. (N/R) denotes no rating.
BREAKING the Golden Rule of 2YO racing and tipping a debutant (the only one) against the raced youngsters namely 3. JONAH (N/R). I remember Derby day last year when the Snowdens produced a very good 2YO winner in this same colours to win – a colt called Neutrality. Jonah was $300,000 yearling and is full to the Snowdens’ stakeswinning filly/mare Flippant. He is also a half to Group 2 winner I Am Excited. Jonah’s two trials have been super, the first one and easy 4th followed 11-days later by a narrow but impressive win. She Will Reign’s half-brother 1. TIME TO REIGN (N/R) was super dominant when he won the Kirkham which was a much better field (on paper) than this. He goes up 2kg for the win and swaps a heavy track firm but the track condition is not the deal breaker, though it worth bearing mind. 2. ESPINOLA (N/R) brings Victorian form to this having run fifth in the Maribyrnong Trial then heading Bendigo and winning by a nose.
DUTY bound to tip 1. RONSTAR (72) here given that I wrote in a recent midweek Sportsman that he ‘would win whenever and wherever he next appeared.’ This is it. The Gary Portellitrained chestnut son of Zoustar beat Diplomatico on debut here and that horse is in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington later day with a red-hot chance. Ronstar won again then was 4th and spelled. End of the prep stuff hence the failure. His three recent trials have been out of this world impressive and while I don’t fancy his 59kg, I am all in. 3. ROHERYN (65) was a good thing first-up after his trials. He won. The Godolphin colt is by Lonhro out of Mannington which makes him a half to VRC Derby winner Benicio and former Darley iron-mare Romneya. Hard not to be impressed with what he did at Warwick Farm. 2. THE TENOR (70) was panels above them first-up at Gosford and won accordingly then elevated to 3rd in the Brian Crowley behind Diplomatico after a successful protest was lodged. Has a touch of style and quality about him.
WINONA Costin, our one-time Champion Apprentice, rides Ronstar in the previous race (as she has 3 races and 4 trials) and can hopefully be in a position to go back-to-back here on 11. OUR ROSEMAREE (57) who was a genuine eye catcher in the Oct 20 Highway at Randwick when closing fast down
middle to be beaten 2.9-len. The Highways are invariably run with a good tempo and if that is the case, then she should get her chance to use the extra 100m to advantage. This is her 4th straight Highway tomorrow.
1. HANDLE THE TRUTH (69) is back for a third consecutive Highway having won the second to last one here over this same trip. On top of that, son of Star Witness was second in the Lightning Ridge and just 3.8-len off Coolmore contender Encryption in the Black Opal in March. Clearly a horse who has the talent to be winning Highways and but bear in mind when he did win his Highway, had 53.5kg as opposed to 58kg this weekend.
7. ROCK THE WORLD (66) has won 3 from 4 since joining Stirling Osland and perhaps could have be unbeaten for him with a bit of luck. Interestingly she has drawn the outside barrier in huge fields three times but was still too good. My query is the 1200m.
2. RED EXCITEMENT (100) almost went down in history as the horse who would have broken Winx’s incredible sequence of wins. That was of course in the Chelmsford Stakes last year when daring tactics on Red Excitement meant that the great mare only beat him late and by a margin of a length. Not many horses have run Winx to a length but he did. The Gerald Ryan-trained son of Excites has been a wonderful horse for connections. He was bought for $50,000 and has so far won $1.1m in 59 starts. Red Excitement has won from 1000m to 2100m and not many horses do that. Point is, the 1900m won’t worry him. Only beaten 6-len in the Epsom last start by Hartnell and trialled very, very well the other day. 4. BLACK ON GOLD (94) is a good fresh horse and needs track to show his best which is precisely what he gets on the weekend. When I say, first-up, his last run was on Aug 31 in Wyong Cup so it’s not all that long ago and he’s had an easy trial over 1030m to get him where he needs be win. 3. MASK OF TIME (98) is the only last start winner in race and from a stable that deadly in Sydney.
TYPICALLY tough 2400m race here. Like many of you, I have followed 5. RAQEEQ (76) down the well after his win seemingly ages ago but there aren’t too many unluckier horses than this bloke. We know he needs things to go his way and it’s been few and far between that happened for the import. Waller is very good at backing horses up and this horse ran fourth last Saturday Randwick in Sky Boy’s race. His is ready for the 2400m now and back home. 2. SOCIAL ELEMENT (82) is a known leader there aren’t many better than Adam Hyeronimus at rating horses over a trip. He is a little master at that and we know that most times in the past, when Tulloch Lodge stayer gets an easy run up front over any trip, but especially at 2400m, they are hard to catch.
3. COSMOLOGIST (79) is the horse that may apply the pressure to Social Element, in fact, he is almost guaranteed to quarrel for the role of pacemaker. Hopefully that sets it up for Raqeeq to have last say.
BRIAN Gentle hasn’t all that long had the training duties with 12. SOSTENIDO (55). The Windsor Park-bred gelding trialled the house down at Goulburn 12-days before he ran a great third to Bobbing Wyong. The son of Rip Van Winkle is going appreciate Rosehill a lot more than Wyong with his get back and finish on pattern and, due to his 55 benchmark, the horse gets in with 52kg. Barrier 9 is the best barrier for him and jockey Kathy O’Hara. 5. SCHUBERT (74) is one of a great book for Josh Parr this weekend; few are riding better than he is at present hence the book. Schubert is a James Cummings-trained son of Lonhro who has finished fifth at his two runs this campaign, no luck at the first and made ground (on Kensington) in a leader dominated race last time. He too, will appreciate Rosehill where he has placed at 2 from 3 prior visits. Is 5s 2-1-1 around the trip. Ideal scenario for him really. 4. MAPMAKER (74) was 11th of 13 in the final race on Everest day but it was a heavy 9 that day and looking at his record, 5 wins out of 7 career wins are on good tracks, he could be a massive improver in this race over much more suitable 1300m compared to 1000m at HQ.
KIM Waugh has her very good mare 3. NEWSFAN (80) resuming here. The daughter of Zoffany is 6s 2-4-0 and that last second was in the $600,000 Provincial Championship Final at The Championships. To think that she had only won a Port Macquarie maiden a mere 3 starts prior (although she lapped them!) is testament to her talent. Newsfan looked very good indeed winning a 1000m heat at the Oct 22 Wyong trials. Josh Parr has ride tomorrow – he is a big chance to win the TAB Jockeys Challenge by way. 8. DAWN DAWN (75) is another of these really progressive mares in the Newsfan mould. The Team Hawkestrained daughter of their star colt All Too Hard resumed with a fantastic run at Caulfield in the Northwood Plume where she was 16 of 16 the 400m but ended up in seventh beaten 1.9len with 55kg. Has 53.5kg tomorrow and this is a Bm88 and not a G3 like she ran in last start. Note also that Dawn Dawn is 2s 1-0-1 second-up. All 3 wins are at 1200m. She beat Easy Eddie here by 2-len at her only t/d run in the winter. 6. HUSSTERICAL (78) was ‘00x0 when going for a spell but they were in stakes races over in Adelaide. She has won at Randwick on Anzac Day before that. Trialled twice, both were quite reasonable.
3. ISAURIAN (84) is a lightlyraced Godolphin galloper whose record at present 7s 3-2-0. I saw him win like a good horse at the Warwick Farm midweeks one day living up to the talent that James Cummings and Darren Beadman evidently had always thought he possessed. The son of Exceed And Excel won at SandownHillside fresh then was a 0.2-len second at the Valley after that – Sep 28. He is back in Sydney and ready to race this weekend third-up at a track where his only run was 0.5-len second in the Darby Munro on Golden Slipper day to I Am Excited. Quality horse. Drawn out is the worry – where does he sit early?
5. PASSAGE OF TIME (83) had everything made to order first-up but was scratched at the barrier at Randwick two weeks ago. The Joe Pride-trained son of Northern Meteor is very good when it comes to racing on rain affected tracks but his firm track form is quite acceptable being 9s 1-2-1. Best things going for him are 3s 2w fresh and Glyn Schofield wearing the red black of Gooree. He won a VRC Derby in them a couple of years ago. 10. CRADLE MOUNTAIN (78) is one of those horses that can blow others off the park. He did that
day at Randwick when he won by a space and ran amazing time for the 1200m. It was 1:08.15 which would win an Everest on the right day! Trialling up very nicely indeed. Like I say, he could come out and win by 2-len in fast time.
THROW at the stumps time now with the Waller import 11. LE JUGE (74) who is first-up for 41-weeks after two unplaced Australian runs down south. Granted Waller is not exactly what you call a first-up trainer but when he wants them to go fresh, he can do it. I might be completely wrong but am taking the punt that this horse is ready to win. He wasn’t a bad horse in France by any measure, certainly way above the 53kg he has here and that’s why I think is ‘set’ to win. Waller could have found some easy race at the midweeks or the provincials to send him around in – he would have got a big weight but instead he comes here with two really nice trials under the belt and gets in with 53kg and Jay Ford. 7. MAHALANGUR (79) has been a stakes horse from day one and might well get there sooner rather than later. He is aiming for 3 straight and while barrier 10 is not perfect, it’s not a horror show either. Might just be too good. 8. FIERCE IMPACT (78) is another horse that seems rather well weighted on talent to kilo ratio. Ex-Godolphin galloper 4. SOUCHEZ (83) creates a lot of interest now with the Snowdens but I’ll take the punt on Le Juge unless market and betting exchange say I have got it all wrong. I note the TAB went up $26 and he was $34 by the time I finished typing! Bad sign but markets can be wrong too.