Surge in One Na­tion sup­port as ma­jor par­ties hit the skids

The Weekend Australian - - FRONT PAGE - JAMIE WALKER

One Na­tion’s pre­dicted role as king­maker in the Queens­land elec­tion has been borne out by mar­ginal-seat polling that has the ma­jor par­ties’ vote on the skids.

A Galaxy poll shows Pauline Han­son’s party surg­ing in key swing seats in the re­gions and on Bris­bane’s ur­ban fringes and pulling a vote of 20 per cent-plus in some of them.

At the very least, this demon­strates One Na­tion pref­er­ences will be de­ci­sive in close con­tests be­tween La­bor and the LNP.

But it’s not enough for the pop­ulist right-wing out­fit to win in its own right any of the seven elec­torates that pro­vide the first snapshot of where vot­ers sit be­fore this month’s elec­tion.

One Na­tion’s pre­dicted role as king­maker in the Queens­land elec­tion has been borne out by mar­ginal-seat polling that has the ma­jor par­ties’ vote on the skids.

A Galaxy poll for The Courier-Mail shows Pauline Han­son’s party surg­ing in key swing seats in the re­gions and on Bris­bane’s ur­ban fringes and pulling a vote of 20 per cent-plus in some of them.

At the very least, this demon­strates that One Na­tion pref­er­ences will be de­ci­sive in close con­tests be­tween La­bor and the LNP. But it’s not enough for the pop­ulist right-wing out­fit to win in its own right any of the seven elec­torates that pro­vide the first snapshot of where vot­ers sit since Premier An­nasta­cia Palaszczuk called the early elec­tion a fort­night ago.

De­spite polling strongly in LNP-held Her­vey Bay — one of the 11 seats it picked up at the break­out 1998 elec­tion in Queens­land — One Na­tion’s pri­mary vote of 25 per cent placed it be­hind La­bor and the LNP there, putting it out of con­tention.

On Galaxy’s num­bers, the seat stays with LNP in­cum­bent Ted Sorensen, though he has taken a hefty 10-point hit to his pri­mary vote.

In the Townsville seat of Mund­ing­burra, La­bor’s Dis­abil­ity Ser­vices Min­is­ter Co­ralee O’Rourke is fac­ing de­feat af­ter just one term. The LNP’s Matthew Der­la­gen has 30 per cent of the pri­mary vote, ahead of Ms O’Rourke on 29 per cent, while One Na­tion is pulling 20 per cent. On a two-par­typre­ferred ba­sis, the LNP leads with 52 per cent in Mund­ing­burra.

A La­bor pre­s­e­lec­tion brawl in Rock­hamp­ton that side­lined the Premier’s pick, pop­u­lar mayor Mar­garet Strelow, has smashed the ALP vote in what was its sixth-safest seat, plung­ing from 52.9 per cent to 33 per cent. La­bor’s man, Barry O’Rourke, would win — but only on the pref­er­ences of Ms Strelow, who is run­ning as an in­de­pen­dent on 14 per cent of the vote.

One Na­tion’s can­di­date, Wade Ro­tary, scored 21 per cent while the LNP had its vote cut by 7 points to 23 per cent, re­in­forc­ing how both ma­jors are be­ing hit by the Han­sonites.

In Glass House, north of Bris­bane, held by Lib­eral Na­tional Party front­bencher An­drew Pow­ell on a mar­gin of 0.9 per cent, One Na­tion has 22 per cent of the pri­mary vote, clos­ing on La­bor on 27 per cent and the LNP (33).

When pref­er­ences are al­lo­cated, the two-party-pre­ferred vote splits 50-50 be­tween the for­mer New­man govern­ment min­is­ter and La­bor’s Brent Hamp­stead. As­sum­ing One Na­tion’s Tracey Bell-Hanselin re­mains third on the pri­mary count, her pref­er­ences will de­cide the win­ner.

In Cairns, La­bor’s vote is down from 44.4 per cent to 37 per cent, while One Na­tion is on 13 per cent.

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