Alarmists in denial
THE blanket use of the term ‘‘ deniers’’ for climate sceptics is a misnomer.
Most scientists and laypersons do not deny that the climate is changing; what many do not accept is that human activities are a significant cause.
The true deniers are those climate alarmists who believe every severe weather event is unprecedented and the result of climate change caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.
They are deniers of both history and observation.
History shows that there have always been severe weather events – droughts, cyclones and floods and that those in modern times are not unprecedented in either frequency or magnitude.
These alarmists predict dire consequences for the planet based on computer model studies and ignore real observation data.
Alarmists argue that global warming is unprecedented and accelerating when satellite and surface data shows no warming for 15 years despite increases of CO2.
The IPCC in 4AR predicted CO2 growth of between 362 and 652ppm to the end of the century.
According to the NOAA since 1980 the observed rate is equivalent to 166ppm. Global warming is not global. Observations from MSU UAH show that since 1979 there has been warming in the northern hemisphere, no warming in the tropics from 200N to 200S and no statisti cally significant warming in the southern hemisphere.
The warming was the greatest in the Arctic; the Antarctic cooled slightly.
A Hadley centre analysis of balloon temperature data shows no warming at 12km altitude since 1979.
The NOAA measurements of sea surface temperatures show no change in Pacific Ocean heat content down to 300m depth since 1958.
Alarmists have claimed that winters would grow increasingly warm yet the past four northern hemisphere winters have been very cold.
The 2009/ 10 winter was the coldest ever in Siberia.
The 2010/ 11 winter in the UK recorded the coldest December for 120 years and the second coldest temperature since records began in 1659.
Records for central England r anked 2010 as t he ninth coldest year since 1900.
The various computer models all predicted less snow and cold.
In 2000 a scientist from the U K’s CRU predicted that within a few years snowfall would become a very rare and exciting event and that children just aren’t going to know what snow is.
Another scientist from the Hadley Centre said that eventually British children would have only a virtual experience of snow via movies and the internet.
The UK Met Office forecast the past three winters to be mild and snowless.
In the US the NOAA claimed that snow would retreat north and cities would get less snow and milder shorter winters.
The reality is that recent winters have set many snowfall records. NOAA snow lab data show northern hemisphere snow cover has been increasing for the past 45 years.
The EPA, NOAA and CCSP in the US, the IPCC and NCAR climate models all predict warming and heat waves.
However the US Annual Heat Wave Index 1895-2008 shows no clear trend in heat waves.
Neither the recent prolonged drought nor flooding is unprecedented. Similar events have occurred since European settlement and before.
The alarmists are the ones in denial.
THING OF THE PAST: A scientist has predicted children in the UK would not have any experience of snow