Alarmists in de­nial

Townsville Bulletin - - Voice of the North - opin­ion Norm Brice, Horse­hoe Bay

THE blan­ket use of the term ‘‘ de­niers’’ for cli­mate scep­tics is a mis­nomer.

Most sci­en­tists and layper­sons do not deny that the cli­mate is chang­ing; what many do not ac­cept is that hu­man ac­tiv­i­ties are a sig­nif­i­cant cause.

The true de­niers are those cli­mate alarmists who be­lieve ev­ery se­vere weather event is un­prece­dented and the re­sult of cli­mate change caused by in­creased con­cen­tra­tions of green­house gases.

They are de­niers of both his­tory and ob­ser­va­tion.

His­tory shows that there have al­ways been se­vere weather events – droughts, cy­clones and floods and that those in mod­ern times are not un­prece­dented in ei­ther fre­quency or mag­ni­tude.

These alarmists pre­dict dire con­se­quences for the planet based on com­puter model stud­ies and ig­nore real ob­ser­va­tion data.

Alarmists ar­gue that global warm­ing is un­prece­dented and ac­cel­er­at­ing when satel­lite and sur­face data shows no warm­ing for 15 years de­spite in­creases of CO2.

The IPCC in 4AR pre­dicted CO2 growth of be­tween 362 and 652ppm to the end of the cen­tury.

Ac­cord­ing to the NOAA since 1980 the ob­served rate is equiv­a­lent to 166ppm. Global warm­ing is not global. Ob­ser­va­tions from MSU UAH show that since 1979 there has been warm­ing in the north­ern hemi­sphere, no warm­ing in the trop­ics from 200N to 200S and no statisti cally sig­nif­i­cant warm­ing in the south­ern hemi­sphere.

The warm­ing was the great­est in the Arc­tic; the Antarc­tic cooled slightly.

A Hadley cen­tre anal­y­sis of bal­loon tem­per­a­ture data shows no warm­ing at 12km al­ti­tude since 1979.

The NOAA mea­sure­ments of sea sur­face tem­per­a­tures show no change in Pa­cific Ocean heat con­tent down to 300m depth since 1958.

Alarmists have claimed that win­ters would grow in­creas­ingly warm yet the past four north­ern hemi­sphere win­ters have been very cold.

The 2009/ 10 win­ter was the cold­est ever in Siberia.

The 2010/ 11 win­ter in the UK recorded the cold­est De­cem­ber for 120 years and the sec­ond cold­est tem­per­a­ture since records be­gan in 1659.

Records for cen­tral Eng­land r anked 2010 as t he ninth cold­est year since 1900.

The var­i­ous com­puter mod­els all pre­dicted less snow and cold.

In 2000 a sci­en­tist from the U K’s CRU pre­dicted that within a few years snow­fall would be­come a very rare and ex­cit­ing event and that chil­dren just aren’t go­ing to know what snow is.

An­other sci­en­tist from the Hadley Cen­tre said that even­tu­ally Bri­tish chil­dren would have only a vir­tual ex­pe­ri­ence of snow via movies and the in­ter­net.

The UK Met Of­fice fore­cast the past three win­ters to be mild and snow­less.

In the US the NOAA claimed that snow would re­treat north and cities would get less snow and milder shorter win­ters.

The re­al­ity is that re­cent win­ters have set many snow­fall records. NOAA snow lab data show north­ern hemi­sphere snow cover has been in­creas­ing for the past 45 years.

The EPA, NOAA and CCSP in the US, the IPCC and NCAR cli­mate mod­els all pre­dict warm­ing and heat waves.

How­ever the US An­nual Heat Wave In­dex 1895-2008 shows no clear trend in heat waves.

Nei­ther the re­cent pro­longed drought nor flood­ing is un­prece­dented. Sim­i­lar events have oc­curred since Euro­pean set­tle­ment and be­fore.

The alarmists are the ones in de­nial.

THING OF THE PAST: A sci­en­tist has pre­dicted chil­dren in the UK would not have any ex­pe­ri­ence of snow

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