New cold war heats up in the Black Sea
A THIRD international flashpoint is emerging. First the South China Sea. Then the Baltic. Now, it’s NATO versus Russia in the Black Sea.
NATO troops are marching into Romania, its ships are plying the waterways, and NATO combat jets are on their way. Now Russia’s getting nervous.
Three years after its annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea territory and nine years after the invasion of Georgia, Moscow has been making it obvious it wants NATO, and especially the Americans, out.
Russia says it is “examining all options” to counter NATO’s build- up. NATO says the same — and it’s becoming an increasingly murky situation.
The weave of international treaties and interests in the Balkans at the turn of the 20th century produced the spark that triggered World War I. Once again, it is proving its potential as an international flashpoint.
NATO’s newest southeastern members are perceived as a “weak underbelly” to the alliance.
Romania, which borders the troubled Ukraine, has been one of a few to actively seek an enlarged NATO military presence.
Bulgaria is somewhat more reluctant. Its political and business leaders are wracked by internal dissent over the decision to impose sanctions against Russia following the annexation of Crimea.
Georgia, which was crushed by Russian forces in 2008, re- mains a destabilising element. Rebuilding its armed forces, infrastructure — and independence — is an ongoing diplomatic balancing act.
But the biggest uncertainty in the region is Turkey. An extreme clampdown on democratic institutions by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, after an attempted coup last year, has led to a significant cooling in relations with Europe, and energetic attempts by Moscow to woo it away from the European alliance and union.
NATO conducted a major naval exercise in the Black Sea last month, dubbed Black Shield 2017.
It came with a fresh commitment to strengthen the USEuropean alliance’s presence in the region — just days after an aggressive game of chicken in the Black Sea between two Russian Su- 24 fighter- bombers and the destroyer USS Porter.
A repositioning of NATO military assets has openly been declared to be a response to a “deteriorated security situation”.
Now Russia has responded in kind. It’s just launched major military exercises in and around the annexed Crimean Peninsula in response to “terrorist and regular forces” threats.
Three Russian paratroop brigades totalling 2500 men, aircraft and the Black Sea Fleet began war games in Crimea on Monday.
“For the first time in the Russian army’s history the Airborne Forces’ three large units were simultaneously alerted as part of the drills and partly redeployed to Crimea with weapons and equipment,” a Russian commander confirmed.
Sources point to the risk of actual conflict being low.
But a “military accident” could paint a totally different picture.