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Mobile in­ter­net ad­ver­tis­ing will over­take news­pa­per ad­ver­tis­ing next year, ac­count­ing for 12.4% of global ad­spend while news­pa­pers ac­count for 11.9%, ac­cord­ing to Zenithop­ti­me­dia’s new Ad­ver­tis­ing Ex­pen­di­ture Fore­casts. Mobile in­ter­net will be the third-largest ad­ver­tis­ing medium, be­hind tele­vi­sion and desk­top in­ter­net. Mobile ad­ver­tis­ing will grow 38% in 2016 to Us$71bn, while news­pa­per ad­ver­tis­ing will shrink 4% to Us$68bn.

Mobile ad­ver­tis­ing re­mains the driv­ing force be­hind the growth of the en­tire ad­ver­tis­ing mar­ket, con­tribut­ing 83% of all new ad dol­lars be­tween 2014 and 2017.

In­ter­net ad­ver­tis­ing to over­take tele­vi­sion in 2018 as print con­tin­ues to shrink

Desk­top in­ter­net ad­ver­tis­ing will con­tinue to grow, but will lose mar­ket share for the first time this year, drop­ping from 19.8% of global ad­spend in 2014 to 19.4%. By 2017 Zenithop­ti­me­dia fore­casts desk­top in­ter­net to ac­count for 19.1% of global ad­spend. Mean­while mobile in­ter­net ad­ver­tis­ing’s share of the global ad mar­ket will rise from 5.7% in 2014 to 15.0% in 2017. Over­all, in­ter­net ad­ver­tis­ing will ac­count for 34.0% of global ad­spend in 2017, slightly be­hind tele­vi­sion’s 35.9%. The mar­ket share gap be­tween the two me­dia will nar­row from 13.3 per­cent­age points in 2014 to 1.9 in 2017. At this rate of growth, in­ter­net ad­ver­tis­ing will over­take tele­vi­sion in 2018.

Print ad­spend con­tin­ues to de­cline across most of the world, as it has done since 2008. We pre­dict news­pa­per ad­spend will shrink by an av­er­age of 4.9% a year through to 2017, while mag­a­zine ad­ver­tis­ing will shrink by 3.2% a year. Their com­bined share of global ad­spend has fallen from 39.4% in 2007 to 19.6% this year, and we ex­pect it to fall fur­ther to 16.7% by 2017.

Global ad­spend to grow 4.0% in 2015

Zenithop­ti­me­dia fore­casts that global ad­spend will grow 4.0% to reach Us$554bn in 2015, and will ac­cel­er­ate to 5.0% growth in 2016, boosted by the 2016 Sum­mer Olympics in Rio and the US Pres­i­den­tial elec­tions. Ad­spend will then slow down slightly in the ab­sence of th­ese events, grow­ing 4.4% in 2017.

Ma­ture Mar­kets to lead ad­spend growth for the first time in nine years

Zenithop­ti­me­dia has re­duced its fore­casts for ad­spend growth in 2015 since last June fore­cast by 0.2 per­cent­age points. There has been broad-based de­cel­er­a­tion across the world as mar­keters have mod­er­ated their ex­pec­ta­tions of global eco­nomic growth. With Brazil and Rus­sia in re­ces­sion, and China slow­ing down, the world can no longer rely on emerg­ing mar­kets to set the pace of growth. ‘Ma­ture Mar­kets’ (which are de­fined as North Amer­ica, Western Europe and Ja­pan) are ex­pected to con­trib­ute more to global ad­spend growth this year than ‘Ris­ing Mar­kets’ (every­where else), for the first time since

Mobile tech­nol­ogy is rapidly trans­form­ing the way con­sumers across the world live their lives, and is dis­rupt­ing busi­ness mod­els across all in­dus­tries. We are now wit­ness­ing the fastest tran­si­tion of ad bud­gets in his­tory as mar­keters and agen­cies scram­ble to catch up with con­sumers’ em­brace of the mobile way of life. Steve King, Zenithop­ti­me­dia’s CEO, World­wide.

2006. Al­though it’s thought to be a tem­po­rary aber­ra­tion, Ris­ing Mar­kets will be­come the lead­ing con­trib­u­tors to ad mar­ket growth again in 2016, and will in­crease their mar­ket share from 37.4% in 2015 to 38.8% in 2017.

China slows but is still grow­ing twice as fast as the world as a whole

China’s ad mar­ket has not been sub­stan­tially af­fected by the tur­moil in its stock mar­ket, but the slow­ing econ­omy and con­cerns about the po­ten­tial for fu­ture growth have caused ad­ver­tis­ers to mod­er­ate their spend­ing slightly. The fore­cast of ad­spend growth in China is ex­pected to fall from 10.5% in 2014 to 7.8% in 2015 – a rate of growth that’s still twice as fast as the global ad mar­ket’s, and which places China as the 13thfastest grow­ing ad mar­ket of the 81 we cover.

Low oil prices weigh on big pro­duc­ers

While ben­e­fi­cial for the global econ­omy – and the ad mar­ket – as a whole, low oil prices are de­press­ing ac­tiv­ity in the big oil pro­duc­ers. Zenithop­ti­me­dia fore­casts dou­bledigit de­clines in ad­spend this year in Azer­bai­jan, Nige­ria and the United Arab Emi­rates, and de­clines of 7%-8% in Kuwait and Saudi Ara­bia. In Rus­sia the prob­lem of low oil prices has been ex­ac­er­bated by in­ter­na­tional sanc­tions, lead­ing to an es­ti­mated 14.1% drop in ad­spend this year.

Zenithop­ti­me­dia fore­casts dou­ble-digit de­clines in ad­spend this year in the United Arab Emi­rates, and de­clines of 7%-8% in Kuwait and Saudi Ara­bia.

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