Global Asia - - COVER STORY -

David Al­bright, Fu­ture Di­rec­tions in the DPRK’S Nu­clear Weapons Pro­gram: Three Sce­nar­ios For 2020 (Us-korea In­sti­tute at SAIS, 2015), p. 30.

2 Korean Cen­tral News Agency, March 31, 2013.

3 Ex­tended de­ter­rence refers to a type of strate­gic co­er­cion in­clud­ing: 1) po­ten­tial en­emy state ac­tively con­sid­ers mil­i­tary force to­ward de­fend­ing state’s al­lies; 2) de­fend­ing state per­ceives the threat faced by its al­lies; 3) de­fend­ing state clearly states it will use mil­i­tary re­tal­i­a­tion or block en­emy state’s use of mil­i­tary force by ex­pand­ing its own mil­i­tary force. Paul K. Huth, “Ex­tended De­ter­rence and the Out­break of War,” The Amer­i­can Po­lit­i­cal Sci­ence Re­view, Vol. 82, No. 2 (June 1988), p. 424.

4 Ac­cord­ing to A. N. Sabrosky, among 177 in­ci­dences of war be­tween 1816 and 1965, al­lies com­plied with the pledge only 48 times, stayed neu­tral 108 times and fought al­lies 21 times. As such, the cred­i­bil­ity of al­liances was low. Cited from A. N. Sabrosky, “In­ter­state Al­liances: Their Re­li­a­bil­ity and the Ex­pan­sion of War,” J. D. Singer (eds.), The Cor­re­lates of War II: Test­ing Some Realpoli­tik

Mod­els (New York: Free Press, 1980), pp. 161-198; Brett Ash­ley Leeds, An­drew G. Long, Sara Mclaugh­lin Mitchell, “Ree­val­u­at­ing Al­liance Re­li­a­bil­ity: Spe­cific Threats, Spe­cific Prom­ises,” The Jour­nal of Con­flict Res­o­lu­tion, Vol. 44, No. 5 (Oct., 2000), p. 690.

5 Stephen M. Walt, “Al­liances in a Unipo­lar World,” World Pol­i­tics, Vol. 61. No. 1 (Jan­uary 2009), p. 90. 6 www.ksoi.org/news-view.php?nno=58; www.real­me­ter. net/?s=%ed%95%b5.

7 South Korea Min­istry of For­eign Af­fairs, www.mofa.go.kr/www/ wpge/m_3528/con­tents.do.

8 South Korea Min­istry of For­eign Af­fairs, “Out­come of 2nd Meet­ing of ROK-US Ex­tended De­ter­rence Strat­egy and

Con­sul­ta­tion Group (2018.01.18),” www.mofa.go.kr/eng/ brd/m_5676/view.do?seq=319650.

9 Korea As­so­ci­a­tion of De­fense In­dus­try Stud­ies, Korea De­fense In­dus­try 40 Years: His­tory of End­less Chal­lenge (Seoul: Plan­et­media, 2015), pp. 47-51. 10 Korea De­fense In­dus­try As­so­ci­a­tion, 2016 Bangsan­jeongcha­e­gyeongu (Seoul: KDIA, 2016), pp, 31-32.

11 Charles Wolf, Jr. et al., The Chang­ing Bal­ance: South and North Korean Ca­pa­bil­i­ties for Long-term Mil­i­tary Com­pe­ti­tion (Santa Monica: The Rand Cor­po­ra­tion, 1985), p. 43.

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