Pakistani-Afghan dialogue
AS LAHORE and Kabul try and recover from yet more attacks, policymakers in the region must contend with an undeniable reality: the interconnectedness of peace and stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. There may not be much reason to believe the attacks on Monday in Lahore and Kabul were directly connected. But from a broader perspective, the attacks and the likely perpetrators have demonstrated that neither country can aspire to stability without meaningful assistance of the other. Militancy in Pakistan will not disappear if the Afghan sanctuaries of Pakistan-centric militants are eliminated. Similarly, the Afghan Taliban’s alleged links to Pakistan are not the sole reason why the 16-year-old war shows no signs of ending. Yet, the mistrust that has plagued bilateral relations have prevented the two states from pursuing their respective strategic goals.
If ever there were a time for them to re-engage in dialogue, it is now. As reports from the US indicate, the review by the Trump administration of the Afghan strategy has run into a road block: the White House itself. Trump’s defence advisers are urging him to commit to an open-ended military engagement in Afghanistan, but the president is reportedly baulking. Perhaps, as former President Barack Obama realised he would have to do, Trump, too, will acquiesce to his generals. However, the indications are he isn’t invested in a major overseas military engagement – a signal that has important implications for this region. If Afghanistan and Pakistan do not recognise the urgent need for bilateral breakthroughs now, the militancy situation could spiral further and make cooperation impossible. If Kabul feels threatened by militant sanctuaries and vice versa, the space for bilateral cooperation will vanish and could be replaced by the search for alliances that could damage the other.
For Pakistan, there is another burden: recognising that a militarised strategy will not deliver decisive results in the long term. Fencing the border with Afghanistan, installing military check posts on the border, leading counterterrorism efforts internally, all these are steps necessary to longterm success, but the main planks of counterterrorism and counter-extremism must be civilian. Problems of civilian capacity and will exist, and these must be addressed to fight terrorism and extremism. The alternative is what Pakistan has at the moment: a dramatic reduction from peak militant violence, but continuing sporadic attacks across the country. Whatever the institutional differences, surely the imperative of keeping the entire country safe ought to come first.