企业该如何准备好应对2017年及 未来的技术趋势

CAIFU - - Contents - 文 / 凯瑟琳• 斯库宾斯奇

2017作用。 年可能将迎来机器的飞速发展,因为 算法、机器学习、机器人、虚拟个人助 理、人工智能,以及虚拟现实与增强现实等 数字媒体技术,正在商业中发挥愈加重要的

北美和亚洲的几位商业领袖都认同技术、 机器还有信息系统正日益成为人类员工的同 事,在各方面发挥作用。

《财富世界》杂志于2016年11月16日(周 三)采访了普瑞托的创始人及首席执行官埃里 克•陶西格,他就技术进步给人类带来的机会 谈及了他的观点。陶西格的普瑞托公司位于美 国俄勒冈州波特兰,致力于为高管、企业家和 企业提供远程行政助理服务。

他介绍说:“大多数设计来替代或支持行 政工作的技术实际上难获采用。我们的客户希 望能用上这样的技术,以便提高自己企业的效

so that their busi­nesses are more ef­fi­cient, but they don't have time to adopt the tech­nol­ogy them­selves or to push adop­tion through their or­ga­ni­za­tions.”

Ac­cord­ing to Gart­ner, a tech­nol­ogy re­search firm based in Stam­ford, Con­necti­cut, dig­i­tal dis­rup­tion will con­tinue to shake up the busi­ness world in 2017. Busi­ness innovation will con­tinue to cre­ate ex­tra­or­di­nary change from mun­dane con­cepts.

“At the core of fu­ture out­comes is the no­tion of dig­i­tal dis­rup­tion, which has moved from an in­fre­quent in­con­ve­nience to a con­sis­tent stream of change that is re­defin­ing mar­kets and en­tire in­dus­tries,” Daryl Plum­mer, man­ag­ing vice pres­i­dent, chief of re­search and Gart­ner Fel­low said in a news re­lease in Oc­to­ber 2016. “Last year, we said dig­i­tal changes were com­ing fast. This year the ac­cel­er­a­tion con­tin­ues and may cause sec­ondary ef­fects that have wide-rang­ing im­pact on peo­ple and tech­nol­ogy.”

Tech­no­log­i­cal Dis­rup­tors

A tech­nol­ogy trend that will gain mo­men­tum in 2017 is the ad­vance­ment of 3-D print­ing, Tim Lynch, Ph. D. and CEO of gam­ing com­puter man­u­fac­turer Psy­ch­softpc in Bos­ton, told CAIFU Tues­day, Nov. 15, 2016.

A tech­nol­ogy trend that will gain mo­men­tum in 2017 is the ad­vance­ment of 3-D print­ing,

“3- D print­ing will take off when HP in­tro­duces the first af­ford­able full- colour 3- D printer in 2017,” Lynch ex­plained. “The trend to­ward bet­ter, faster, big­ger and full colour will re­ally catch fire in 2017. More users will use 3-D print­ing as it be­comes more ac­ces­si­ble and de­sir­able. …More com­pa­nies will of­fer cus­tom­ized prod­ucts based on 3-D print­ing.”

Daniel O’leary, Ph. D., a pro­fes­sor of ac­count­ing and data sci­ences and op­er­a­tions at the Univer­sity of South­ern Cal­i­for­nia’s Mar­shall School of Busi­ness in Los An­ge­les, noted con­tin­u­ous mon­i­tor­ing sys­tems – the process and tech­nol­ogy used to de­tect com­pli­ance and risk is­sues as­so­ci­ated with an or­ga­ni­za­tion’s fi­nan­cial en­vi­ron­ment – would con­tinue to evolve.

Cloud com­put­ing has helped many com­pa­nies trans­form them­selves in the 2010s, but the cloud mar­ket will ac­cel­er­ate faster in 2017 – both for pub­lic cloud and pri­vate cloud ser­vices built and hosted in cor­po­rate data cen­ters, O’leary told CAIFU Mon­day, Nov. 21, 2016.

Big data an­a­lyt­ics tools can also help com­pa­nies im­prove op­er­a­tional ef­fi­ciency, drive new rev­enue and gain com­pet­i­tive ad­van­tages over busi­ness ri­vals. “Big data is push­ing through, and is chang­ing the way com­pa­nies do busi­ness,” he added. “Com­pa­nies should tap into an easy-to-use an­a­lyt­ics ap­proach.”

Vir­tual re­al­ity and aug­mented re­al­ity is

Vir­tual re­al­ity and aug­mented re­al­ity is poised to take off in en­ter­prises in 2017, as it con­tin­ues to trans­form the way in­di­vid­u­als in­ter­act with each other, and with soft­ware sys­tems cre­at­ing an im­mer­sive en­vi­ron­ment.

poised to take off in en­ter­prises in 2017, as it con­tin­ues to trans­form the way in­di­vid­u­als in­ter­act with each other, and with soft­ware sys­tems cre­at­ing an im­mer­sive en­vi­ron­ment. “More VR con­tent will ap­pear in 2017, driv­ing more adop­tion of VR for ad­ver­tis­ing, sales, client in­ter­ac­tion, sales meet­ings, of­fice tours, ex­er­cise, train­ing and en­ter­tain­ment,” Lynch stated.

Gart­ner has pre­dicted more than 3 mil­lion global work­ers will be su­per­vised by a “robo-boss,” or a smart ma­chine man­ager who will per­form su­per­vi­sory du­ties and make de­ci­sions about staffing or man­age­ment in­cen­tives.

“Peo­ple and ma­chines need to get along, and ma­chines are in­her­ently dif­fer­ent than us,” Lynch said. “My view is that ma­chines make ex­cel­lent ser­vants, but poor bosses. We should re­frain let­ting them de­cide what peo­ple should be do­ing. We have not ad­vanced in AI far enough for that to be a vi­able op­tion.”

“Peo­ple don’t like work­ing for a com­puter,” O’leary added.” For in­stance, if a car told a per­son how to drive, then a per­son wouldn’t lis­ten.”

Dif­fer­ence be­tween Trends and Fads

Ac­cord­ing to Seth Godin, an Amer­i­can au­thor and en­tre­pre­neur who spe­cial­izes mar­ket­ing ideas

in the dig­i­tal age, said most trends – whether it be in busi­ness or in pop­u­lar cul­ture – gain en­ergy with peo­ple who are happy to have fun with fads, and it is only when the fad fades away, peo­ple can see the un­der­ly­ing power of the trend.

“A fad gives us mo­men­tary joy, and part of the joy comes in know­ing that it's mo­men­tary,” he wrote on his blog in Au­gust 2015. “We en­joy a fad be­cause our peers are into it as well.”

“A trend, on the other hand, sat­is­fies a dif­fer­ent hu­man need,” he con­tin­ued. “A trend gains power over time, be­cause it's not merely part of a mo­ment, it’s a tool, a con­nec­tor that will be­come more valu­able as other peo­ple com­mit to en­gag­ing in it.”

O’leary said he is skep­ti­cal of when a fad or trend is re­ferred to as “mag­i­cal.” Taus­sig’s re­mote ad­min­is­tra­tive as­sis­tant com­pany, Pri­alto, pro­vides more than 10,000 sup­port hours per month. This gives the com­pany a unique, real- time view on what trends are widely and deeply adopted, he ex­plained.

“When some­thing is a trend, our cus­tomers will men­tion it a lot, but they won't pay for it or deeply adopt it,” Taus­sig said. “When they in­sist on us us­ing a tool be­cause they them­selves are us­ing it, we know it has trac­tion. When they are ac­tu­ally pay­ing for it and/or if peo­ple across their or­ga­ni­za­tion are us­ing it, we know that it is more than a fad.”

“At this point, our clients don't ask about AI or show any signs of in­ter­est in the tech­nol­ogy,” he added.

Ar­ti­fi­cial In­tel­li­gence Re­ports to Work

De­spite that, sev­eral busi­ness lead­ers in North Amer­ica and Asia say AI has al­ready reached a crit­i­cal tip­ping point in busi­ness, and its in­flu­ence will only grow in the com­ing years. The num­ber of global com­pa­nies in­vest­ing in AI has al­ready over­shot many ex­perts’ ex­pec­ta­tions, com­mented Lyn Liu,

AI has al­ready reached a crit­i­cal tip­ping point in busi­ness, and its in­flu­ence will only grow in the com­ing years.

Gart­ner has pre­dicted more than 3 mil­lion global work­ers will be su­per­vised by a “robo- boss,” or a smart ma­chine man­ager who will per­form su­per­vi­sory du­ties and make de­ci­sions about staffing or man­age­ment in­cen­tives.

CEO of BRJD, an in­ter­net mar­ket­ing ser­vices com­pany head­quar­tered in Bei­jing.

Or­ga­ni­za­tions seek­ing to drive dig­i­tal innovation with this trend should eval­u­ate a num­ber of busi­ness sce­nar­ios – in­clud­ing in­tel­li­gent apps and in­tel­li­gent thing in which AI and ma­chine learn­ing could drive clear and spe­cific busi­ness value, Gart­ner re­ported.

Ac­cord­ing to Lynch, AI will be present in the of­fice like Cor­tana – a dig­i­tal as­sis­tant built into Win­dows 10 – and other as­sis­tants be­come more preva­lent. “AI can also be use­ful in data anal­y­sis, pat­tern recog­ni­tion, di­ag­nos­tics, qual­ity con­trol, qual­ity of ser­vice, im­age en­hance­ment and loss preven­tion,” he con­tin­ued. “All these should be mon­i­tored by hu­mans and the ‘work’ checked for ef­fi­cacy and ac­cu­racy.”

Lynch also em­pha­sized the eth­i­cal con­cerns with us­ing AI at the of­fice. “As AI ad­vances we need to adopt a healthy mis­trust of the ma­chines we use so that we do not be­come too de­pen­dent on them,” he said. “AI doesn’t think like us and doesn't have the same his­tory of moral­ity we do. … AI can be pro­grammed with a be­nign goal, but im­ple­ment it in a per­verse man­ner, af­fect­ing peo­ple and the en­vi­ron­ment in ways hu­mans would deem bad.”

Taus­sig fo­cused on how AI could be an as­set. “In gen­eral, [ AI] will free hu­mans to fo­cus on

“AI can also be use­ful in data anal­y­sis, pat­tern recog­ni­tion, di­ag­nos­tics, qual­ity con­trol, qual­ity of ser­vice, im­age en­hance­ment and loss preven­tion,” “All these should be mon­i­tored by hu­mans and the ‘work’ checked for ef­fi­cacy and ac­cu­racy.”

more cre­ative and valu­able work,” he ex­plained. “It will be hard on peo­ple who dis­like change and/ or pre­fer to rely on only one or two deep skills. It will em­power those who en­joy change and con­stant learn­ing, and it will free them to do more in­ter­est­ing and re­ward­ing work.”

Anup Mo­han, over­seas op­er­a­tions man­ager at BRJD told CAIFU Fri­day, Nov. 18, 2016 he uses an app to com­mu­ni­cate with his col­leagues since there is a lan­guage bar­rier – he speaks English, while they con­verse in Man­darin.

“Through AI tech­nol­ogy, I can talk with peo­ple in my own lan­guage and peo­ple will still un­der­stand in their own lan­guage, re­mov­ing cross- cul­tural com­mu­ni­ca­tion bar­ri­ers once for all,” Mo­han con­tin­ued. “At the same time, it can make vir­tual man­age­ment and work­ing much more ef­fi­cient. It can make peo­ple get more in­for­ma­tion about global re­al­i­ties and can make it eas­ier for com­pa­nies to be­come global. More im­por­tantly, it will help in bet­ter de­ci­sion-mak­ing pro­cesses for ex­tremely com­plex busi­ness re­quire­ments.”

“AI will help peo­ple work to­gether, talk to­gether and make them ef­fi­cient and pro­duc­tive apart from au­tomat­ing the al­ready ex­ist­ing pro­cesses,” he con­cluded. “We are mov­ing into an era where we may not need hu­man con­sul­tants any­more and that’s how AI will im­pact ev­ery or­ga­ni­za­tion.”

埃里克•陶西格Eric Taus­sig

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