O’Leary vs. anyone but O’Leary
Being unmoored in party nuances not a good sign
Kevin O'Leary professes himself a “Conservative expansionist,” with a target of growing the party by 40 per cent under his leadership, mainly by appealing to 18- to 35-year-old voters disillusioned by Justin Trudeau's Liberals.
At first glance, it would seem that he is succeeding — in most polls he has the most support among existing Conservatives, and even rivals admit he is signing up new members at a faster rate than their campaigns.
“The biggest eye- opener so far was when we made a decision last week to go to a pub at ( the University of British Columbia) at 11 p.m., just to see if anybody would talk to me,” O'Leary said in an interview at an Ottawa restaurant, ahead of Friday's program at the Manning Conference. “We thought maybe 15 or so would, and we'd do some social media. Three hundred and fifty turned up — we had to close the doors with another 150 waiting outside.
“They feel Trudeau has screwed them and they're pissed,” he said. “They're ripe for this party …. It's a new ball game — if you can't get to that youth, you can't get a majority mandate.”
But the problem for O'Leary is not attracting new members — it is retaining the support of “legacy” Conservatives, the existing or returning members.
Crucially, the number of party members who have a negative impression of him has nearly doubled from 22 per cent of members in December to 41 per cent earlier this month, according to an Abacus Data poll.
In a ranked- ballot race, where to succeed candidates need to attract support not just as first- choice but as the preferred second-choice of members as well, that could be enough to impede O'Leary's growth prospects and deny him the crown.
Part of the problem is that in order to attract millennials, O'Leary is saying things, like expressing support for transgender rights, that are alienating a portion of the Conservative base.
Then there's the perception that he's “just visiting,” to invoke the line used with such devastating effect against former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. One recent survey of O'Leary's movements between mid-January and mid-February found that he was in Canada less than half the time. An article in Boston Magazine recently quoted him as saying: “Boston is home.”
In our interview Friday he took great pains to claim that he moved to Canada in December 2010 and pays taxes in this country.
“I moved back to Canada to put my kids through Canadian schools in December 2010 … I wanted them to learn what being a Canadian was, so we moved back. I live in Ontario and pay taxes to (Ontario premier) Kathleen Wynne since then, which is why I'm so unhappy. I've been a resident since then,” he said.
One rival strategist suggested O'Leary needs to sign up some respected Conservative caucus members ( he currently has backing from just one MP) and spend more time in the country.
Yet the reality TV star is unrepentant about his parallel career as an international investor. “My Rolodex is far bigger than Trudeau's or ( finance minister Bill) Morneau's. They would beg to have my Rolodex. When I get this country to be globally competitive, I'm going back to all those places to say to everybody there, ‘Canada is open for business again.' I'm very involved in international business and I'm going to stay that way for the benefit of Canadians,” he said.
This highlights the central conceit of the O'Leary campaign: It is not really about you, Conservative members, it's about him. This politics thing is more of a hope than a commitment.
During our interview, he paid lip-service to the “amazing raw talent” in the Conservative caucus.
But one MP who talked to him privately said he was dismissive about caucus and the role of Parliament.
The Conservative Party remains a loose confederation. Keeping that coalition intact requires an understanding of the source of the power that maintains party leadership.
Yet it's apparent that to O'Leary, the leader's preeminence would make Cabinet and the House of Commons all but irrelevant.
“There is a basic change in the body politic … the tone is that people are tired of journeymen politicians, of career politicians,” he said. “They want someone who will tell them the truth, above all they want executional excellence in their leadership.”
There is clearly a new mood out there but it seems unlikely to me that the Conservative Party of all parties is prepared to hand itself over to a new leader so unmoored in its past policies, its traditions and even its geography.
Kevin O'Leary gives the impression that if he were a chocolate drop, he'd eat himself. It's an entertaining schtick — as are the well-rehearsed impromptu soundbites, like “It's not going to be an election in 2019, it's going to be an exorcism.”
But Canadians will not elect a president two years from now; they will elect a government, from which a prime minister will emerge.
Research from Canada and elsewhere suggests that in the Westminster system party brands are more important than party leaders when it comes to winning or losing elections. It is not even uncommon for the political party of the less-popular leader to be the one that wins an election.
O'Leary's lack of appreciation for the nuances of the party he aspires to lead has for many Conservatives made him the ballot question. Anecdotal evidence suggests the fastest- growing movement in this leadership race may well be the “Anyone But O'Leary” campaign.
THE CENTRAL CONCEIT OF THE O’LEARY CAMPAIGN: IT IS NOT REALLY ABOUT YOU, CONSERVATIVE MEMBERS, IT’S ABOUT HIM. THIS POLITICS THING IS MORE OF A HOPE THAN A COMMITMENT. — COLUMNIST JOHN IVISON