Disapproval of Nenshi growing, but he’s still the man to beat at polls
Once boasting approval ratings in the mid-80s, Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi’s popularity has hit a new low just months from his bid for a third term.
A new Mainstreet poll commissioned by Postmedia shows Nenshi’s personal popularity has sunk to 56 per cent, while those who disapprove of the 2014 winner of the World Mayor Prize have risen to 41 per cent. And Mainstreet’s monthly tracking poll of the mayor shows the gap between those numbers has narrowed over the past three months.
But even with Calgarians heading to the polls in October and a veteran city councillor vying to oust Nenshi from the mayor’s chair, Nenshi remains the easy favourite in the race.
Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, said it’s normal for a politician to see their numbers ebb heading into a third term.
“The third term is the danger zone — that’s when politicians are beginning to reach their potential shelf life,” he said.
“But I don’t think he has anything to really worry about in the coming election.”
Nenshi’s approval rating has slipped from 65 per cent in January to the latest low-water mark. Over the same period, those who disapprove of the mayor’s performance have grown from 31 per cent in January to this month’s 41 per cent.
But Maggi noted that with just seven months until the Oct. 16 civic election, a lean field of challengers, topped by longtime Ward 10 Coun. Andre Chabot, suggests Nenshi has little to fear.
Unless a major player makes a late entry into the race.
“If someone of stature came into the race, I think he would have a competitive election,” said Maggi, noting that although 31 per cent of those polled said they would vote for Nenshi in the current field, a similar number, 30 per cent, said they’re undecided, while 17 per cent said they would choose someone else.
“I definitely think given those numbers there would be room for someone else in the race. But it would need to be a big name.”
Rounding out Nenshi’s challengers are Chabot with nine per cent support, entrepreneur Shawn Baldwin at six percent, former al dermanic candidate David Lap pat four per cent and Communist League hopeful Katherine Le Rouge tel at three per cent. Urban farming crusader Paul Hughes has also recently entered the race.
The poll surveyed 831 Calgarians via cellphone and land line March 10 and is considered accurate within 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.