Stronger Cal­gary mar­ket fore­cast for ’19 & ’20

Calgary Sun - Homes - - Homes - Myke Thomas CALGARYSUN

In its 2018 Hous­ing Mar­ket Out­look, Canada Mort­gage and Hous­ing Corp. (CMHC) ex­pects home sales and new home starts in mar­kets across Canada to moder­ate in 2019 and 2020.

“Our key take­away from this year’s out­look is mod­er­a­tion in Canada’s hous­ing mar­kets for 2019 into 2020,” says Bob Du­gan, chief econ­o­mist with CMHC. “Hous­ing starts are ex­pected to de­cline from the higher lev­els we’ve seen re­cently. We ex­pect re­sales in 2019 and 2020 to re­main be­low re­cent peaks while prices should reach lev­els that are more in line with eco­nomic fun­da­men­tals such as in­come, job and pop­u­la­tions growth.”

On the na­tional level, CMHC’s out­look for 2019 is for new home starts to edge down­ward to a range be­tween 193,700 and 204,500, with low­ers starts in both the sin­gle-fam­ily and mul­ti­fam­ily home seg­ments. MLS sales are ex­pected to be be­tween 478,400 and 497,400 units an­nu­ally while the na­tional aver­age price should be be­tween $501,400 and $521,600.

CMHC re­ports num­bers in ranges, which takes into ac­count un­fore­seen fac­tors that can in­flu­ence hous­ing mar­kets.

CMHC ex­pects hous­ing mar­kets to show in­creased ac­tiv­ity.

“Buy­ers’ mar­ket con­di­tions in both Al­berta and Saskatchewan should grad­u­ally shift to a bal­anced mar­ket with grad­ual im­prove­ment in eco­nomic and de­mo­graphic fun­da­men­tals. Bal­anced mar­ket con­di­tions in Man­i­toba are ex­pected to con­tinue,” says CMHC’s re­port.

Look­ing at Cal­gary, CMHC says, “Var­i­ous fac­tors will push and pull the de­mand for hous­ing in Cal­gary in 2019 and 2020. Cal­gary’s econ­omy will ex­pe­ri­ence stronger growth in pop­u­la­tion and em­ploy­ment. This will help sup­port de­mand and lift sales in 2019 and 2020. How­ever, the aver­age MLS price will con­tinue to face down­ward pres­sure but is ex­pected to sta­bi­lize in 2019 and mod­estly rise in 2020.”

For more in-depth in­for­ma­tion, see the No­vem­ber 17 edi­tion of the Cal­gary Sun’s New Homes Mag­a­zine.

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