Keep it in the air: Colts, Saints represent the new model for winning the NFL
reason their teams are in the title game.
Brees set an NFL record with his completion percentage of 70.6, and Manning ranked second at 68.8.
Brees led the league with 34 touchdown passes, and Manning tied Brett Favre for second at 33. Brees ranked first in passing efficiency, and Manning was on pace for an NFL-high 4,800 yards before resting for the playoffs late in the regular season.
Gaudy passing statistics haven’t historically translated into winning. Instead, 300-yard games were for losers.
But this year, eight of the league’s top 10 teams in passing yardage made the playoffs. Teams reaching the post-season threw more than the league average.
The Colts will play for the title despite ranking a distant 32nd and last in rushing. The Arizona Cardinals also ranked last a year ago when they reached the Super Bowl. No team had previously achieved that dubious feat, according to STATS LLC.
So what happened to the notion of keeping the ball on the ground to win?
“ That day has gone,” says NFL draft consultant Gil Brandt, who has worked in the league since the 1960s. “If you get 10 carries as a running back now, that’s good.
“And whatever amount teams passed this year, there will be more passing next year.”
There are exceptions to every trend, and the surprising New York Jets reached the AFC championship game this season with a rookie quarterback, grinding ground game and stout defence.
“I was pulling for the Jets, because that was old-time football — run the ball and play defence,” Cowher says.
“It’s not out the window, because the Jets still do it,” Pro Football Hall of Fame defensive back Rod Woodson says. “Oldschool football — it’s kind of crazy even to call it that. But today’s game is made to throw the ball.”
Woodson and others say one factor is rule changes that protect quarterbacks and receivers.
“ The quarterbacks can’t get hit. The receivers can’t get hit. The guy running over the middle can’t get hit,” Cowher says.
In addition, there’s more emphasis on throwing and catching in high school and college, which improves the skill level in the NFL, Brandt says.
“People have become so sophisticated in the passing game,” he says. “A long time ago, a completion percentage of 52 or 53 was pretty good.
“Now you’ve got one guy at 70.6 and one at 68.8. And there has been a drastic reduction in interceptions. They’re throwing the ball more, and yet there are less interceptions.”
Phil Simms finds the numbers misleading and the trend exaggerated. He says short, safe throws pad passing stats, and teams use such plays to control the ball.
“ There are some teams in the NFL that will throw 10-to-15 passes a week of five yards or less,” says Simms, MVP of the 1987 Super Bowl. “It’s really just another way of running the ball, instead of dropping back and throwing it like we did in the old days.
“I could go out there now and throw left-handed and hit 50 per cent, because there are so many easy throws.”
Others argue this is an era of uncommon talent at quarterback. Saints coach Sean Payton says passing wins today because of those doing the throwing.
“ You’re seeing quarterback play that’s probably as good as this league has ever had,” Payton says. “ There are a dozen teams that are getting outstanding play at quarterback, and you would go back a long time before you could say that.”
Along with Manning, Brees and Favre, there’s Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo and newly retired Kurt Warner. That’s a dozen.
Peyton Manning’s at the head of the class. He won the NFL MVP award for the fourth time this season, and 78 per cent of the Colts’ yards came through the air.
“Indianapolis is an exception,” Cowher says. “I don’t think you’ll ever find another team that can do what they’re doing. I don’t think you can use them as a model.”
The Saints are more balanced, with 67 per cent of their yards via the pass, and they ranked sixth in rushing.
Perhaps that gives them an edge in the Super Bowl. Deion Sanders, for one, believes the path to a championship remains on the ground.
“Both of these teams are going to have to resort to the old model to win this game,” Sanders says. “ They’re going to run the ball. It’s got to be a little more balanced.
“If you see a team with 45 passes and 15 runs, that means that team is losing.”
How times change: Prime Time is now old school.