National Post (National Edition)
Be patient Tories. Your time will come
With thanks to the NDP, Canadians have dodged a “snap” election in 2020 — so far. A vote of confidence from the left may ultimately allow the Liberals to evade accountability for potentially mismanaged pandemic spending, but it's the Conservatives who should be relieved. While the Bloc and the CPC were unable to secure additional documentation in the WE Charity scandal, an immediate election may have provided a worse fate. Given Justin Trudeau's current polling approval, post-pandemic provincial election trends, and Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole's relative anonymity, a fall election would likely not end well for those who seek a modern, conservative government at the helm. Most conservatives would agree, the only thing worse than a Liberal minority not held to account, is a Liberal majority of the same.
There is much to criticize about this government's handling of the pandemic: its initial delay in halting flights to and from China, shutting down Canada's early warning pandemic system, and the ongoing lag in rolling out rapid COVID-19 testing, for example. However, apart from a brief dip in popularity during the initial revelations of the WE Charity saga, the official opposition has had little success changing Canadian opinions of this government. From pandemic mishandlings, to persistent calls for greater transparency, almost nothing is weighing Trudeau down. Opinion polling shows the Liberal Party of Canada leading in such vote-rich provinces as Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia. So, while the CPC may believe new revelations into the WE Charity deal could change that, the truth of the matter is, in times of crisis citizens rally around the flag. In a state of instability, people prefer the government they know to the one they don't. Backed by recent voting trends in New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and B.C., the Conservatives should be cautious before marching towards a general election. Understanding that each provincial election had its own unique circumstances, one commonality is clear: voters heavily favoured the incumbent.
A fall election may not bode favourably for the CPC, but somewhere down the post-pandemic timeline a better opportunity will come.
The Ethics Commissioner will release his report on possible violations of the Conflict of Interest Act for the prime minister's refusal to recuse himself during the WE deal. Fiscal realities will set in, and the billions of taxpayer dollars allocated to “COVID-response” programs will need to be reined in. Unpopular decisions will be made around how to pay off mounting debt. Consequently, programs will be curtailed or taxes will be raised, no doubt altering the way people currently feel about this government's crisis-time generosity.
Despite public rhetoric, the Liberals will be motivated by these inevitable, but not enviable, choices, and will likely prefer to see ballots cast sooner rather than later. For now, the NDP have gifted the CPC with precious time; they should sit back and leave the NDP to prop up the minority Liberals for the time being. The New Democrats will need to justify their decisions to voters when the time comes.
In the meantime, the Conservatives should continue to position themselves as a “government-in-waiting.” In his two months as party leader, O'Toole is performing well. He continues to thwart typical attacks from the left — including attempts to pin him as a prisoner of his social conservative base — but there is much more work to be done. O'Toole must continue to introduce and brand himself until he becomes a respected household name. Further, it will take time for him to build a positive, personable profile. When the next election is called, should Canadians find themselves bracing for the sting of fiscal restraint, a conservative plan will need to be backed by someone they see as the right guy for the job. It is not a given that O'Toole will be accepted as that leader simply because Trudeau's popularity begins to fall.
In politics, patience is rare but in this case it's necessary. When the COVID tap runs dry and Liberal popularity wanes, opposition parties will lose confidence in this government and the writ will drop. By then, Canadians will be open to an election and the Conservatives should be ready. For now, how they choose to spend this time will ultimately determine the party's success.