PICKING NO. 1 DOESN’T MEAN EVENTUAL STANLEY CUP WIN
For every success story like Pittsburgh, there’s a cautionary tale such as Edmonton
Should the Ottawa Senators secure the golden ticket in the NHL draft lottery on April 28, we can safely predict a few summer events along the following lines.
Once the selection of Rasmus Dahlin is made official at the draft on June 22, the teen phenom will be paraded around the city with a franchise player tag attached.
The hype that naturally comes with being selected first overall will lead some fans to believe the hope that a Stanley Cup will soon follow.
Nothing wrong with that. It’s Marketing 101, a perfect opportunity to sell a brighter future, along with thousands of seats.
Besides, if Dahlin isn’t coming here, a similar scene will play out wherever he does go.
Now, here’s a little cold water to pour on the plans for the parade route in Ottawa, Buffalo, Vancouver or wherever the lucky lottery ball lands. The Edmonton Oilers know the story all too well.
Over the past three decades, only three teams — the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, the Chicago Blackhawks and Tampa Bay Lightning — have won the Cup on the backs of a first-overall selection.
First, we’ll talk about the rare success stories.
With the help of Sidney Crosby (2005) and Marc-Andre Fleury (2003), the Penguins parlayed top picks into the past two Stanley Cup titles, along with a championship in 2009. In a previous Penguins era of dominance, Mario Lemieux (1984) served as the centrepiece for Pittsburgh’s run to the Cup in 1991 and 1992.
The Blackhawks reached the top in 2010, 2013 and 2015, with Patrick Kane (2007) delivering on his first overall promise.
Since 1988, Vincent Lecavalier (1998) is the only other first pick to lead his team all the way to the championship.
It’s startling, really, when you think of some of the marquee names — including Mats Sundin (1989), Joe Thornton (1997), Ilya Kovalchuk (2001), Alex Ovechkin (2004) and John Tavares (2009) — who have owned the first overall mantle.
Of course, Steven Stamkos (2008) could still win a Stanley Cup title with Tampa. In Toronto, Auston Matthews (2016) is just beginning his career and Connor McDavid (2015) could have another decade trying to lead Edmonton to the top.
Yet Edmonton is also the place to start in explaining how there are few guarantees to success simply by picking first.
The second Oilers dynasty that many deemed inevitable following the No. 1 selections of Taylor Hall in 2010, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in 2011 and Nail Yakupov in 2012 disappeared. Hall is now in the midst of his long-awaited first playoff run with New Jersey, while Yakupov is on his third NHL team, receiving a shot in the post-season with surprising Colorado.
Clearly, success is about much more than being bad and/or lucky enough to pick first.
There’s a need to surround the young talent with the proper pieces, either through other solid draft choices, trades and/or free agency.
Pittsburgh and Chicago were basement teams before their turnaround.
In the case of the Penguins, Evgeni Malkin was secured with the second-overall pick in 2004, immediately after Ovechkin. The Penguins also used the number two choice in 2006 to draft Jordan Staal.
Staal won the Cup with the Penguins in 2009. When he was traded to Carolina, part of the return package included defenceman Brian Dumoulin, who has been part of the past two championship teams.
As for the Blackhawks, drafting Jonathan Toews third overall in 2006 — behind Staal and Erik Johnson — was pivotal in winning the three titles. Franchise defenceman Duncan Keith was chosen 54th overall in the 2002 draft, the 15th defenceman selected.
As much as the draft is a selling point to fans, the Los Angeles Kings won the Stanley Cup in 2012 and 2014 despite having only one of their own top 10 draft selections in their lineup: Drew Doughty.
The Detroit Red Wings have also proven that a team can experience long-term success without the benefit of high draft picks. The Red Wings won the Cup in 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2008.
Their run of 25 consecutive playoff appearances came to an end in 2017. For the most part, they accomplished all of that without any high-end picks, including several years without a first-round selection.
Detroit is the exception to the rule, of course.
The road back to respectability usually comes through strong drafting. It is too much, however, to expect one player to immediately make all the difference — even if his name is Dahlin.
There’s a need to surround the young talent with the proper pieces, either through other solid draft choices, trades and/or free agency.