Exclusive election polls
Little daylight between candidates in Orford, St-Francois, Sherbrooke
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ and commissioned exclusively for the Stanstead Journal,
among Quebeckers 18 years of age and older in the three provincial ridings of St-Francois, Orford, and Sherbrooke, equal proportions (within the margin of error for this poll) will vote for either the Liberal or PQ candidates.
In Orford, Pierre Reid, the Liberal, and Michel Breton, the Péquiste, each have just more than a third of the vote (36% and 35%, respectively), while the CAQ candidate, Jean Lécuyer, has a fifth (22%). Few will vote QS (4%) or ON (1%). Pierre Reid had the highest support among participants 65 and over (53%) and nonfrancophones (61%). Breton had the lowest levels of support among participants less than 35 years old (38%), while francophones (37%) and those with annual household incomes between $60 to 80K (51%) showed more favour for this candidate than did other groups. Premier Charest has the approval of more than a third in this riding (36%) and his net favourable (approve minus disapprove) is -23. Mme Marois has approval from 36%, and also has a net of -23. Francois Legault has approval from close to 4-in10 (38%) and his net is -13. Charest had the strongest approval among those 65 + (49%) and nonfrancophones (60%). Participants aged 45 to 54 (46%), those with annual household incomes ranging from $60 to 80K (62%), and francophones (39%) were the most likely to approve of Pauline Marois. Legault, on the other hand, had the most favour among males (46%) and those with annual household incomes between $80 to 100K (56%). Voter enthusiasm is equally high for the leading candidates in this riding, and half or more say they are very enthusiastic about voting Liberal or PQ (54% and 55%, respectively) and CAQ (49%).
In St-Francois, the PQ candidate, Réjean Hébert, leads the Liberal, Nathalie Goguen by the slimmest of margins (39% to 37%). One-in-seven will vote CAQ (16%) and few will vote QS (5%) or ON (3%). Mme Goguen had higher favour among older participants and non-francophones (79%). More francophones than non-francophones support Hébert and the QS and ON candidates. Premier Charest›s approval here is close to 4-in-10 (38%), and his net is -20. Pauline Marois› approval is at an equally high 4-in-10 (39%) and her net favourable rating is a healthier -13. Francois Legault draws approval from 3-in-10 (31%) and his net is -21. Participants with household incomes lower than $20K were the least likely to approve of Charest (29%), while non-francophones were more likely to approve of him (70%). Participants under 35 years old (49%) and francophones (42%) showed Mme Marois the most support. The PQ has the enthusiasm edge in this riding, with more than half saying they are very enthusiastic about voting for this party (54%), compared to just fewer than half for the Liberals (48%) and about a third for the CAQ (33% very enthusiastic).
Premier in hot water
In Sherbrooke, Premier Jean Charest and his PQ rival Serge Cardin are locked up at 4-in-10 supporters each (39% and 41%, respectively). About one tenth will vote CAQ (11%), and few will vote QS (5%) or ON (2%).
Charest had the least support among participants under 35 years old (22%), while Cardin, and QS and ON candidates had the highest support among this age group. Charest had stronger backing among non-francophones (81%), but the same could not be said for Cardin, Girard, and the ON candidate who all celebrate high levels of support from francophones.
In his own riding, Jean Charest’s approval is over a third (37%) and his net is -20. Mme Marois has the approval of more than 4-in-10 (41%) and her net favourability is a relatively lofty -8. M Legault scores 31% approval, and his net is -19.
Approval for Charest was also lowest among participants under 35 years old (22%), but higher among non-francophones (59%). Contrastingly, Mme Marois had the highest approval among those under 35 years old (49%) and francophones (44%). Legault had higher favour among respondents aged 45 to 54 (44%) and males (37%).
Both Liberals (59% very enthusiastic) and Péquistes (55%) have high voter enthusiasm levels in this riding, although those for the CAQ are somewhat lower (very enthusiastic - 43%).
“It is clear all three of these are very competitive ridings for the Liberals and the PQ. Premier Charest could face an historic fight for his own seat on election day,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.