Ex­clu­sive elec­tion polls

Stanstead Journal - - FRONT PAGE -

Lit­tle day­light be­tween can­di­dates in Or­ford, St-Fran­cois, Sher­brooke

In a ran­dom sam­pling of pub­lic opin­ion taken by the Forum Poll™ and com­mis­sioned ex­clu­sively for the Stanstead Jour­nal,

among Que­beck­ers 18 years of age and older in the three pro­vin­cial rid­ings of St-Fran­cois, Or­ford, and Sher­brooke, equal pro­por­tions (within the mar­gin of er­ror for this poll) will vote for ei­ther the Lib­eral or PQ can­di­dates.


In Or­ford, Pierre Reid, the Lib­eral, and Michel Bre­ton, the Péquiste, each have just more than a third of the vote (36% and 35%, re­spec­tively), while the CAQ can­di­date, Jean Lécuyer, has a fifth (22%). Few will vote QS (4%) or ON (1%). Pierre Reid had the high­est sup­port among par­tic­i­pants 65 and over (53%) and non­fran­co­phones (61%). Bre­ton had the low­est lev­els of sup­port among par­tic­i­pants less than 35 years old (38%), while fran­co­phones (37%) and those with an­nual house­hold in­comes be­tween $60 to 80K (51%) showed more favour for this can­di­date than did other groups. Premier Charest has the ap­proval of more than a third in this rid­ing (36%) and his net favourable (ap­prove mi­nus dis­ap­prove) is -23. Mme Marois has ap­proval from 36%, and also has a net of -23. Fran­cois Le­gault has ap­proval from close to 4-in10 (38%) and his net is -13. Charest had the strong­est ap­proval among those 65 + (49%) and non­fran­co­phones (60%). Par­tic­i­pants aged 45 to 54 (46%), those with an­nual house­hold in­comes rang­ing from $60 to 80K (62%), and fran­co­phones (39%) were the most likely to ap­prove of Pauline Marois. Le­gault, on the other hand, had the most favour among males (46%) and those with an­nual house­hold in­comes be­tween $80 to 100K (56%). Voter en­thu­si­asm is equally high for the lead­ing can­di­dates in this rid­ing, and half or more say they are very en­thu­si­as­tic about vot­ing Lib­eral or PQ (54% and 55%, re­spec­tively) and CAQ (49%).


In St-Fran­cois, the PQ can­di­date, Ré­jean Hébert, leads the Lib­eral, Nathalie Goguen by the slimmest of mar­gins (39% to 37%). One-in-seven will vote CAQ (16%) and few will vote QS (5%) or ON (3%). Mme Goguen had higher favour among older par­tic­i­pants and non-fran­co­phones (79%). More fran­co­phones than non-fran­co­phones sup­port Hébert and the QS and ON can­di­dates. Premier Charest›s ap­proval here is close to 4-in-10 (38%), and his net is -20. Pauline Marois› ap­proval is at an equally high 4-in-10 (39%) and her net favourable rat­ing is a health­ier -13. Fran­cois Le­gault draws ap­proval from 3-in-10 (31%) and his net is -21. Par­tic­i­pants with house­hold in­comes lower than $20K were the least likely to ap­prove of Charest (29%), while non-fran­co­phones were more likely to ap­prove of him (70%). Par­tic­i­pants un­der 35 years old (49%) and fran­co­phones (42%) showed Mme Marois the most sup­port. The PQ has the en­thu­si­asm edge in this rid­ing, with more than half say­ing they are very en­thu­si­as­tic about vot­ing for this party (54%), com­pared to just fewer than half for the Lib­er­als (48%) and about a third for the CAQ (33% very en­thu­si­as­tic).


Premier in hot wa­ter

In Sher­brooke, Premier Jean Charest and his PQ ri­val Serge Cardin are locked up at 4-in-10 sup­port­ers each (39% and 41%, re­spec­tively). About one tenth will vote CAQ (11%), and few will vote QS (5%) or ON (2%).

Charest had the least sup­port among par­tic­i­pants un­der 35 years old (22%), while Cardin, and QS and ON can­di­dates had the high­est sup­port among this age group. Charest had stronger back­ing among non-fran­co­phones (81%), but the same could not be said for Cardin, Gi­rard, and the ON can­di­date who all cel­e­brate high lev­els of sup­port from fran­co­phones.

In his own rid­ing, Jean Charest’s ap­proval is over a third (37%) and his net is -20. Mme Marois has the ap­proval of more than 4-in-10 (41%) and her net favoura­bil­ity is a rel­a­tively lofty -8. M Le­gault scores 31% ap­proval, and his net is -19.

Ap­proval for Charest was also low­est among par­tic­i­pants un­der 35 years old (22%), but higher among non-fran­co­phones (59%). Con­trast­ingly, Mme Marois had the high­est ap­proval among those un­der 35 years old (49%) and fran­co­phones (44%). Le­gault had higher favour among re­spon­dents aged 45 to 54 (44%) and males (37%).

Both Lib­er­als (59% very en­thu­si­as­tic) and Péquistes (55%) have high voter en­thu­si­asm lev­els in this rid­ing, al­though those for the CAQ are some­what lower (very en­thu­si­as­tic - 43%).

“It is clear all three of these are very com­pet­i­tive rid­ings for the Lib­er­als and the PQ. Premier Charest could face an his­toric fight for his own seat on elec­tion day,” said Forum Re­search Pres­i­dent, Dr. Lorne Bozi­noff.

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