Time to update the forecast
Premier Kathy Dunderdale is as saying that the Muskrat Falls analysis hasn’t been proven “ flawed.”
She has further indicated that she would reconsider the project if the project’s assumptions and forecasts (on which the Muskrat Falls project is based) were shown to be flawed.
While Nalcor’s forecast demand for year 2010 was 1,519 megawatts ( MW), actual peak demand last year was only 1,305 MW. Yet it is from this f lawed forecast that Nalcor claims (incorrectly) that the island’s reserve capacity will be breached by year 2015.
If Nalcor’s forecast date for a breach in our reserve capacity were corrected to reflect the much lower actual year 2010 demand of only 1,305 MW, the island’s capacity reserve would not be breached (as Nalcor claims) in year 2015, but in year 2028.
And furthermore, the island’s existing “net capacity” would not be breached until after year 2041. The facts show therefore, that Nalcor’s forecasts are unreliable and flawed.
While Nalcor’s assumptions and forecasts are no substitute for the facts, they do show that there is an urgent need for a thorough and independent review.
Maurice E. Adams writes from Paradise