Time to up­date the fore­cast


Premier Kathy Dun­derdale is as say­ing that the Muskrat Falls anal­y­sis hasn’t been proven “ flawed.”

She has fur­ther in­di­cated that she would re­con­sider the project if the project’s assumptions and fore­casts (on which the Muskrat Falls project is based) were shown to be flawed.

While Nal­cor’s fore­cast de­mand for year 2010 was 1,519 megawatts ( MW), ac­tual peak de­mand last year was only 1,305 MW. Yet it is from this f lawed fore­cast that Nal­cor claims (in­cor­rectly) that the is­land’s re­serve ca­pac­ity will be breached by year 2015.

If Nal­cor’s fore­cast date for a breach in our re­serve ca­pac­ity were cor­rected to re­flect the much lower ac­tual year 2010 de­mand of only 1,305 MW, the is­land’s ca­pac­ity re­serve would not be breached (as Nal­cor claims) in year 2015, but in year 2028.

And fur­ther­more, the is­land’s ex­ist­ing “net ca­pac­ity” would not be breached un­til af­ter year 2041. The facts show there­fore, that Nal­cor’s fore­casts are un­re­li­able and flawed.

While Nal­cor’s assumptions and fore­casts are no sub­sti­tute for the facts, they do show that there is an ur­gent need for a thor­ough and independent re­view.

Mau­rice E. Adams writes from Par­adise

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