Head on crash.

The U.S. and South Korea are carrying out annual military exercises as normal and, as normal, North Korea has reacted. This time it was test firing four ballistic missiles, which landed in the Sea of Japan. North Korea’s missile and nuclear development seems to moving on at a rapid pace. One has to wonder, in the light of heavy sanctions, as to how?

The U.S. has begun to deploy its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea, which has long been flagged. I can’t see any good outcomes here. Firstly, I cannot foresee a circumstance where the current North Korean regime will not push ahead until it has nuclear missile strike capacity. Similarly, I cannot see a circumstance where the ability to shoot North Korean missiles is not deployed. There is an impasse. I don’t believe talking will work such is the gulf in beliefs and rationalities between the opposing parties. Sooner or later I believe the two forces will collide with likely disastrous results for the rest of the world.

The United Nations (UN) has flagged up that the greatest humanitarian crisis since 1945 is unfolding in Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan and Nigeria. The UN estimates that over 20 million people face famine and the risk of starving to death. All of the regions are conflict zones and getting effective relief through to where it is needed will be an enormous challenge. For the life of me I cannot see a good outcome here. One would hope that warring factions and governments would cease hostilities and work for the good of the people but that hope is faint indeed.

President Trump is third on my list this time, which is nice. There is a new travel ban, which may, although distasteful, stick this time. I also think that the travel ban is and will have a negative effect on the multibillion dollar U.S. tourism industry. I have read that bookings and travel enquiries are already down. Being tougher on genuine visitors I see as a shot by the administration to both feet.

Trump’s phone tapping allegations against a former president are startling and yet there is no evidence. Maybe it will come, maybe it won’t. In the meantime, there was an interesting court case judgment in the UK recently. Two tweets were considered as libel and it cost the tweeter nearly $213,000 in damages and costs. I read the tweets were regarded as permanent, published defamation. Food for thought for a frequent tweeter here? I also wonder if named companies in Trump’s tweets that suffer stock value losses may have a recourse here too? Just speculating.

OPEC can seemingly no longer prop up the price of oil on its current production cuts. Oil traded in the US$50-$55 range but seemed unable to break out of it. Now it looks as U.S. shale production ramps up that there is a glut in storage again and US$45-50 may be a new norm and it might go lower.

Royal Dutch Shell is selling most of its oil sands assets to Canadian Natural Resources (CNR) for $7.25 billion. I have no doubt that CNR will be able to achieve synergies through this purchase and cut costs. Whether these synergies will be enough to make production costs low enough in the new oil pricing structure remains to be seen. For hacks like me, synergies, almost always means job losses folks.

In Europe, the elections in the Netherlands are almost upon us (March 15). The betting is that the so called populist Party for Freedom (PVV) led by Geert Wilders is only just ahead in the polls but will not be able to form a government. Polls are fickle and frequently have called it wrong of late. The result of the Netherlands election may deliver another kick to the head of the beleaguered European Union (EU).

In May, we have the French election, assuming there are any candidates left. The result of this too with an unhappy and disillusioned populous may also deliver a nasty blow to the EU.

In between, we have the likely activation of Brexit from the UK with Article 50. I still think EU leaders are in a state of almost grief like disbelief and still hope that the UK’s decision to leave the EU will be reversed. A lot of this grief, I think, is the 12.5 per cent black hole that the disappearance of the UK’s EU budget contribution will make. Maybe EU lunches should be broken crackers and ice cold Camembert?