Climate change already here, grim report stresses
Twenty years is not a long time; perhaps three or four prime ministers, the career of an indie band. Time enough, though, to witness “dramatic” and “unprecedented” changes to human civilization.
A new report from the National Intelligence Council in the United States looks at the security implications of climate change, not as some remote scenario, but right now.
“Over 20 years, the net effects of climate change on the patterns of global human movement and statelessness could be dramatic, perhaps unprecedented. If unanticipated, they could overwhelm government infrastructure and resources, and threaten the social fabric of communities,” it says.
Every step Canada takes to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions is an attempt to make further global catastrophe just that little smidgeon less bad. That is the context in which we much judge environmental policy.
This country may contribute only 1.6 per cent of the world’s emissions, but that’s coming from 0.5 per cent of the world’s population. Our duty doesn’t stem merely from being members of human civilization, but from being disproportionate early contributors to that change. We have a self-interest in the effects, whether that’s the rise of a terrorist protector state in a water-dependent area or sovereignty over our own territory.
“Contention over Russia’s claim to 1.2 million square kilometres of Arctic shelf ... could increase friction with rival claimants, including Denmark and Canada,” the report predicts. It was written with the U.S. intelligence community, as advice for the U.S. National Director of Intelligence.
Environmental policy has already moved from the periphery to the centre of what a government does. It is at the heart of foreign policy, health, defence and economic policy.
It is also possible Canada will be facing challenges the next few years with its security and prosperity tied to whims of a president who has called climate change a hoax.
This is no longer about earnest conversations of respect for the Earth and what sort of future we want to leave our grandchildren. Our grandchildren will inevitably, face an unfathomably difficult future. That future has already happened; it is now a question of degree.
The latest report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, released last week, shows August was the 16th consecutive record-breaking month, almost one full degree Celsius above the 20th-century average (Ontario was two or three degrees above average). Hot and cold years come and go, but this shocking year is a reminder that within a long-term shift, factors that make our weather can create dramatic swings, especially if climate change pushes those systems past tipping points.
Even if sudden shifts do not materialize, gradual shifts in climate could spark surprising secondary effects — such as a massive release of gases from melting permafrost, persistent mega droughts, extreme shifts in critical ecosystems, emerging reservoirs of new pathogens, or the sudden breakup of immense ice sheets,” warns the NIC report.
Yes, the Earth’s climate has always been in flux. But this rate of change is new. The NIC report puts it, “A body of scientific research indicates current rate of increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is highest in perhaps as long as 66 million years, sea levels are rising faster than in the past 2,700 years and oceans are acidifying more rapidly than the past 56 million years.”
This must inform discussions about whether all provinces should have a carbon price. Politicians can and should disagree about how to tackle this problem. But no responsible politician can push climate policy to the periphery, ever again.