The Prince George Citizen

Planet headed to dangerous climate change milestone by 2050, scientists warn

- Seth BORENSTEIN

Ateam of top scientists is telling world leaders to stop congratula­ting themselves on the Paris agreement to fight climate change because if more isn’t done, global temperatur­es will likely hit dangerous warming levels in about 35 years.

Six scientists who were leaders in past internatio­nal climate conference­s joined with the Universal Ecological Fund in Argentina to release a brief report Thursday, saying that if even more cuts in heat-trapping gases aren’t agreed upon soon, the world will warm by another one degree Celsius by around 2050.

That two degree mark is key because in 2009 world leaders agreed that they wanted to avoid warming of two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Temperatur­es have already risen about one degree Celsius, so that two degree goal is really about preventing a rise of another degree going forward.

Examining the carbon pollution cuts and curbs promised by 190 nations in an agreement made in Paris last December, the scientists said it’s simply not enough.

“The pledges are not going to get even close,” said report lead author Sir Robert Watson, a University of East Anglia professor and former World Bank chief scientist who used to be chairman of the United Nations’ Intergover­nmental Panel on Climate Change.

“If you government­s of the world are really serious, you’re going to have to do way, way more.”

If carbon pollution continues with just the emission cuts pledged in Paris, Earth will likely hit the danger mark by 2050, Watson and colleagues calculated, echoing what other researcher­s have found.

They said with just a few more cuts, the danger level might be delayed by 20 years,

In Paris, the countries also added a secondary tougher goal of limiting warming to just another 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (half a degree Celsius) as an aspiration.

There “is no hope of us stabilizin­g” at that temperatur­e because the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere already commits the world to hitting that mark, Watson said.

Watson said a few weeks ago he was in Washington at an event with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and former Vice-President Al Gore celebratin­g the accord as a victory.

“It struck me that this was naive,” Watson said. “This is a real major challenge to stay even close to two degrees Celsius.”

That two-degree danger mark is on a continuum with harmful effects already being felt now at lower warming levels, Watson said.

But he added: “As you go more and more above two, the negative effects become more and more pronounced, more and more severe.”

The report wasn’t published in a scientific journal.

Six outside scientists looked at the report for The Associated Press and said the science behind it was sound and so were the conclusion­s.

“It is a good summary of what is common knowledge in the climate expert community but not widely appreciate­d by members of the public and even policy makers,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute in Germany.

“So indeed it is a useful reminder notice to the world about what is at stake.”

On Tuesday, scientists at Climate Interactiv­e In Asheville, North Carolina, who weren’t part of the report ran a computer simulation using pledges from the Paris agreement and found that dangerous mark arrives around 2051, said group co-director Drew Jones.

If carbon pollution continues with just the emission cuts pledged in Paris, Earth will likely hit the danger mark by 2050, Watson and colleagues calculated, echoing what other researcher­s have found.

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