Midterms could slow new trade deal

OTTAWA — Canadians are inspecting the new U.S. political landscape following midterm election results that many believe have added fresh trade-related uncertainty.

The Democrats’ majority victory in the House of Representatives could mean the ratification of the recently struck United StatesMexico-Canada deal, known as USMCA, will have to wait well into 2019 — or even until 2020.

Experts predict the pact will eventually gain approval, but until it’s ratified businesses will have to deal with considerable unknowns as they try to make longerterm decisions on export strategy and investments.

“There will be a lot of uncertainty for a number of months and that uncertainty is not good for Canadian business interests,” said Lawrence Herman, a Toronto-based trade lawyer with Herman & Associates. “There is a chance that the Democrats would agree to have this deal approved. On the other hand, as we’ve heard, there are those in the Democratic party who don’t want to give Trump and the Republicans any kind of break whatsoever.”

Dan Ujczo, an Ohiobased international trade specialist, said Wednesday it will be a “political miracle” to have the USMCA voted on in the spring.

March, he added, is the earliest the deal could be voted on in Congress.

Before that, the practical aspects of choosing a new speaker and committee chairmen settling into their positions will take up considerable time.

He also noted the 2020 U.S. election season will likely begin as early as spring 2019.