LNG decision throws NDP a lifeline

Federal approval of B.C. project energizes critics

The New Democratic Party is back. Well, not yet, obviously.

But the Liberal government’s decision to give conditional approval to the Pacific Northwest liquefied natural gas project planned for British Columbia’s northwest coast could have a seismic impact on the national political landscape, breathing new life into the New Democrats and reducing the double-digit advantage in support enjoyed by the Liberals over the Conservatives.

The Trudeau government’s popularity has been built on the premise that it is always better to sit on a fence than clamber over it.

The decision by cabinet Tuesday to grant approval to the massive LNG plant, albeit with 190 conditions, saw the Liberals come down off the fence for the first time on a major resource project.

First Nations and environment groups have been quick to express their displeasure, and it is this fissure that offers hope to the NDP.

Tom Mulcair has been as tense as a clenched knuckle since he was thrown overboard as leader last spring.

But when he met the media Wednesday, he looked like a man who had come up with a fish in his mouth.

The NDP’s unequivocal opposition to the gas pipeline that will be built, in part, through the Great Bear Rainforest has created an opportunity Mulcair was quick to identify.

“If a natural gas pipeline in the Great Bear Rainforest becomes a flashpoint for people concerned about aboriginal rights and about the future of our planet, if it becomes that sort of symbol, then any party that stands up and says, ‘Hold on, is this what you meant when you said real change?’ will benefit,” he said.

The New Democrats have been trawling new depths in unpopularity in recent weeks, as one in five traditional NDP voters drifted toward the Liberals. A new Nanos poll this week found the party and its interim leader hitting 12-month lows. The decline in support has also hurt the Conservative party, which needs a strong NDP to siphon off Liberal support.

But pollster Nik Nanos says the LNG decision gives the NDP a reason for optimism, especially from a regional perspective.

“If the NDP is not strong in B.C., it makes it difficult for them because B.C. is ground zero. This issue is tailor-made for them to focus on the NDP as a progressive alternative,” he said.

There is every prospect the LNG project will never break ground, given the number of conditions imposed and the glut of natural gas on world markets.

But there will be other political Gordian knots for the Liberals, with the proposed Trans Mountain pipeline due to go before cabinet in December.

One way or another, groups and individuals who were previously supportive will desert the government.

Since that was inevitable, the Liberals can congratulate themselves that approval for PNW LNG appears to have brought Premier Christy Clark’s B.C. government onside with Ottawa’s carbon pricing plan.

Clark said her province has agreed to increase its $30-a-tonne carbon tax in line with federal plans.

When you are at nearly 50 per cent in the polls, you can afford a little leakage.

It should also be borne in mind that there would have been a political downside if the project had been blocked. PNW LNG has many supporters, including the B.C. government and all but three of the 20 First Nations on the pipeline’s route.

But sometimes it can’t be about polls. As Clark said, “sometimes governments need to lead.”

This was a “brave” political decision by the Trudeau government — that is, one that will likely lose votes, as opposed to a “courageous” one that might lose the next election.

For the New Democrats, it’s a lifeline and Mulcair grasped it with the enthusiasm of a swimmer about to go under for the final time.

“The Liberals are doing what the Liberals have always done — talk a good game about progressive issues like the environment but then let the side totally down when the issue is on the table,” he said, with relish.

In business, they call it the inflection point — your sales are still plunging, just not as fast. Most importantly, there is a glimmer of hope and the prospect of recovery.

INDIVIDUALS WHO WERE PREVIOUSLY SUPPORTIVE WILL DESERT THE GOVERNMENT.