Teflon Tom’s true test for the campaign

For Teflon Tom, a moment of reckoning is at hand.

Tom Mulcair may appear vulnerable on the mechanics of his vow to abolish the Senate, his gutting of the Clarity Act or questions of buy-in on his national daycare plan.

But those issues have not stuck. They will not grow into ballot questions. None will become walls blocking his path to power.

But if the NDP leader cannot provide a coherent ledger sheet that shows he can account for his campaign spending promises and still balance the budget as promised, he and his party could squander a historic opportunity to grab power.

If he pulls it off, Mulcair is closer to becoming the country’s next prime minister.

The next two days are the most pivotal for the Mulcair campaign. Wednesday, his party will lay out its numbers in a briefing for journalists. Thursday, Mulcair will take those numbers into battle against Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in a prime-time economic debate.

If his fiscal framework appears too vague, relies on unrealistic projections or contains holes, the NDP will stumble on its old Achilles heel, the perception that it cannot be trusted with the national treasury.

This week, Mulcair has promised a $100-million mental health fund for children and youth. He has committed $40 million for a national strategy on Alzheimer’s disease and dementia, $500 million for more medical clinics and $1.8 billion for an expansion of seniors’ health care and palliative care services.

He has pledged $1.3 billion in annual funding over 20 years to cities for infrastructure and transit, plus another $1.5 billion in annual transfers to municipalities for four years.

His signature $15-per-day daycare plan would cost Ottawa about $5 billion annually if fully implemented.

He has pledged $90 million, over the life of an NDP mandate, for a program that fosters innovation in the automotive sector and a $200million program, partnered with the private sector and non-governmental organizations, to create jobs, paid internships and co-op placements for young workers.

How do you promise all that and balance your budget?

You backload your spending commitments over the life of your government.

You take advantage of a $1.9 billion cushion, the size of the surplus for the past fiscal year, although the outlook for the current fiscal year is cloudy.

New Democrats will point to their decision to cancel Harper’s incomesplitting plan, something that will give them $2.2 billion in the first year of their mandate, $8.8 billion over four years.

You hike corporate tax rates, “in a reasonable fashion . . . it won’t be a shock to the system,’’ Mulcair said Tuesday.

The current rate of 15 per cent is down from 21 per cent when Harper took office in 2006. New Democrats will stress their hike still leaves the rate lower than under previous Liberal governments.

Sources are coy about the size of the hike, but a hint may come from Alberta where NDP Premier Rachel Notley was able to win election with a promise to hike corporate rates two points.

They will point to the daycare spending ramping up slowly. Harper would spend more on incomesplitting in one year than the NDP has committed to daycare in the early years of the program.

They will claim $500 million in savings by closing a loophole that allows CEOs to pay taxes on only 50 per cent of stock options as part of their compensation package. It’s unclear the end of that program would actually flow revenue into government coffers or whether corporations would merely find other ways to compensate executives.

The NDP will also claim savings by killing Harper’s law on union transparency because it will eliminate the extra costs of complying with the program at the Canada Revenue Agency.

The NDP will claim it will create jobs with its pledge to drop taxes on small businesses from 11 per cent, ultimately to 9 per cent. But the first percentage drop will cost it $600 million in revenue.

But the NDP vows there will be no cuts — key spending on health care, veterans or aboriginals will not take a hit under the NDP program.

At Wednesday’s unveiling, the party will have “third party” endorsement of its plan.

Mulcair will need voter endorsement, not just from those who are considering giving the NDP its first chance to govern, but also from some rank-and-file New Democrats who are wondering why the party found it necessary to pray at the Conservatives’ balanced budget altar.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tharper@thestar.ca Twitter:@nutgraf1