Con­ser­va­tives over­take NDP in latest poll

New Fo­rum Re­search sur­vey projects Tories with 138 seats, enough for a mi­nor­ity win


Af­ter fall­ing as low as third in the polls for weeks, Stephen Harper’s Con­ser­va­tives have re­gained the lead in voter sup­port, a new sur­vey by Fo­rum Re­search finds.

Fo­rum pres­i­dent Lorne Bozinoff says Mon­day’s an­nounce­ment from the fed­eral Fi­nance Depart­ment that Ot­tawa posted a $1.9-bil­lion bud­get sur­plus likely gave Harper a bump, given that Fo­rum polled its re­spon- dents Mon­day and Tues­day nights — af­ter the an­nounce­ment.

“The bal­anced bud­get an­nounce­ment prob­a­bly helped the Con­ser­va­tives,’’ Bozinoff said in an in­ter­view Wed­nes­day.

The Con­ser­va­tives have 32-per­cent sup­port, com­pared to 30 per cent for the NDP and 28 per cent for the Lib­er­als, ac­cord­ing to Fo­rum.

The Greens have 6-per-cent sup­port, the Bloc Québé­cois 4 per cent and “other” 1 per cent.

The re­sults, pro­jected on a 338-seat House of Com­mons, would see the Con­ser­va­tives cap­tur­ing 138 seats, enough for a mi­nor­ity gov­ern­ment. The NDP would win 113 seats, the Lib­er­als 86 and the Greens one.

In On­tario, where the par­ties have been locked in more or less a three­way tie, the Con­ser­va­tives now lead with 37 per cent, ahead of the Lib­er­als with 31per cent and the NDP with 24 per cent.

The same Fo­rum poll this week also found 38 per cent of Cana­di­ans be­lieve the Con­ser­va­tives are do­ing the right amount for Syr­ian refugees, and 36 per cent be­lieve too lit­tle is be­ing done.

But Bozinoff said he doesn’t think the Syr­ian refugee is­sue had a ma­jor im­pact on Harper jump­ing ahead this week, be­cause opin­ions are split on his han­dling of that file.

In terms of voter sup­port for the par­ties, the NDP re­lin­quished first place this week for the first time since so­lid­i­fy­ing their lead in Fo­rum’s June 16 poll.

The New Democrats dropped six per­cent­age points in public sup­port from last week, and the Lib­er­als lost one point.

The Tories gained four per­cent­age points.

De­spite what the polling firm de­scribed as the NDP’s “sharp loss of vote share,” the bright news for the party is the Fo­rum sur­vey found that among the party lead­ers, Thomas Mul­cair had the largest per­cent­age of voter sup­port — 30 per cent — when re­spon­dents were asked who would make the best prime min­is­ter.

Twenty-five per cent of re­spon­dents said Harper best fit that de­scrip­tion, while 19 per cent said Trudeau, 8 per cent chose Green Leader El­iz­a­beth May, 2 per cent said Bloc Leader Gilles Du­ceppe, while 15 per cent picked none of the above, or didn’t know.

The poll re­sults are based and an­swers de­rived from an in­ter­ac­tive voice re­sponse tele­phone sur­vey of 1,402 ran­domly se­lected Cana­dian adults.

The poll find­ings are con­sid­ered ac­cu­rate plus or mi­nus three per­cent­age points, 19 times out of 20.

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