Experts expecting hottest year on record
Temperatures 0.8 C higher than 20th-century average
An El Nino in the Pacific Ocean and rising temperatures caused by climate change have put the world on an almost irreversible path to its warmest year on records dating back to 1880.
Global temperatures from January to August were 0.8 degrees Celsius above the 20th-century average and the warmest first eight months of any year in the books, the National Centers for Environmental Information said in a monthly climate report. “Are the record temperatures due to climate change or due to El Nino? The answer is yes,” said Deke Arndt, chief of the centre’s monitoring branch in Asheville, N.C. “Long- term climate change is like climbing a flight of stairs. El Nino is like standing on tippy toes while you are on one of those stairs.”
The world is so warm that only a major reversal of temperatures will keep 2015 from surpassing last year as the warmest year on record. Before August’s data were tabulated, the world had a 97-per-cent chance of setting a new high, Arndt said.
“Adding August to that will raise those odds,” he said Thursday on a conference call with reporters.
Through every month of the year, 2015’s temperature anomalies have outpaced each of the previous five warmest years on record. That includes 1998, when the world experienced a powerful El Nino.
“Eight months through a 12-lap race, and you can see the lead it has on its competitors,” Arndt said.
Last month also was the warmest August on record, with temperatures rising to 1.58 degrees above the 20thcentury average. It was the sixth month this year that broke its own record. In the United States, warmer temperatures can affect snowpack in the mountains of California. The snow is needed to provide the state, now in its fourth year of drought, with water throughout the year.
“It is not a clear picture as to whether or not there will be snowpack,” said Dan Collins, a research scientist at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md.
As part of Thursday’s report, the U.S. predicted drought will persist across most of California into December. There is a chance conditions will improve in the southern part of the state even if the drought doesn’t end there.
In the Arctic, the sea ice dropped to 22.3 per cent below the 1981-2010 average, according to the report. That’s was the fourth-smallest for August since records began in 1979.
The Antarctic, which had been seeing large sea-ice growth in its winter months in past years, also had a below-average total. The lack of sea ice in the Arctic will probably keep temperatures warmer than normal across Alaska and lead to more precipitation there in months to come, the report said.