Slow conversion to electric vehicle
Although they seem to be everywhere, people still aren’t lining up to buy them
If media hype and political pressure equated to actual sales, electric vehicles (EV) would already have taken over the car market. But they haven’t.
Although EVs are disproportionately represented in concept-car unveilings and media coverage at most major auto shows (they’re frontand-centre in the Electric Avenue exhibit at this year’s Canadian International AutoShow), they’re but a blip on the radar in sales.
In 2016, only about 11,000 new electric vehicles were sold in Canada (according to FleetCarma.com) in a total market of 1.95 million — less than 0.6 per cent of all sales.
Significantly, those EV figures include plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), not just pure battery-electrics (BEVs), and it’s one of those hybrids — the Chevrolet Volt — that is by far the bestseller of the lot. Those puny results are in spite of massive incentives for EV purchases in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec — as much as $14,000 in Ontario. And those incentives are accompanied by major investments in infrastructure, both public and private, to expand the network of charging stations.
The rate of EV sales is increasing. It was up 60 per cent in Canada in the first three quarters of 2016. But even if that rate of growth continues, it will take another five years to reach even 5 per cent of the market.
It’s not that there’s a dearth of EVs and PHEVs available. There are now 19 models for sale in Canada.
It’s just that customers haven’t yet drunk the electric Kool-Aid. Clearly, they’re not convinced that EVs, even plug-in hybrids, can satisfy their individual driving needs as well as conventionally-powered gas vehicles.
In spite of both the carrot and stick pressures driving further adoption of EVs, particularly BEVs, there’s no indication that buyers’ views are likely to change dramatically in the near future.
According to a forecast released recently by automotive research and development firm FEV, BEVs will make up just 6 per cent of sales in North America by 2025. That forecast is particularly credible because the company is a recognized leader in the design and development of all forms of vehicle powertrains, conventional and alternatives included.
Another study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests a similar level of BEV penetration.
So, if those forecasts are to be believed, what’s the problem? Why aren’t BEVs ready to take over the automotive world? The problems are threefold and they are well known: cost, driving range and recharge time. Government incentives, where they’re available, address much of the cost issue. And significant progress is being made in terms of driving range.
The new Chevrolet Bolt exemplifies the level of progress achieved in both those areas. It’s priced at $42,795, plus a $1,600 destination charge, here in Canada — before incentives are applied. And it offers a driving range of up to 383 kilometres in ideal conditions.
Close, if not equal to what buyers have come to expect from conventional cars.
But it takes up to 9.5 hours to fully charge. Not quite a match for a fiveminute fill-up at a gas station.
Those observations are not a knock against the Bolt. Quite the contrary; it’s arguably the best example of its type currently available. They’re simply an affirmation of why many potential buyers may not yet be ready to buy BEVs.
So what is the better alternative, in terms of both the environmental interests that social and political pressures espouse and real customer needs? Arguably it is electrification, but at a more limited level.
In other words, it’s hybrids. Their range and refuel/recharge time advantages more than offset customer concerns over those issues and they come closer to conventional vehicles in cost as well. If they happen to be plug-in hybrids, depending on the jurisdiction, they may qualify for incentives as a bonus.
Further aiding that advantage, they also stand to benefit from any progress made by BEVs on the cost front, for they share much of the same componentry. And most, if not all the technical advancements made for BEVs will likely be applicable to HEVs as well.
In addition, major efficiency gains continue to be made on the engine side of the hybrid equation, resulting in unprecedented levels of efficiency. And there is plenty of room for further improvements to come. It’s not hard to envision, for example, a serial hybrid with a high-efficiency, motorcycle-sized engine running at a constant speed, driving a generator that charges the battery and feeds an electric motor that drives the wheels.
All those things considered, it’s no surprise that the FEV forecast predicts hybrids will account for almost one in three passenger vehicle sales (32 per cent) by 2025.