Analysis of Vulnerable Characteristics in Chinese Northern Farming-pastoral Region Based on Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment

ZHOU Yimin, ZHANG Ang, ZHAO Xinyi†

ACTA Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis - - News -

Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes (MOE), The College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871; † Corresponding author, E-mail: sh-zhao@urban.pku.edu.cn

Abstract Based on the grid data set of temperature and precipitation of China (0.5°×0.5°) and the output of coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) East Asia, including the climate prediction based on RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, the authors simulate and analyze vulnerability in Chinese northern farming-pastoral region from 1980 to 2100 with temperature, precipitation and maximum near-surface wind speed. The results show that the ecologically vulnerability in Chinese northern farming-pastoral region increases during 20062100, especially after 2050, the increase speed rises rapidly. By the end of 21st century, almost all the Chinese northern farmingpastoral region shows at least obvious vulnerability. Said on the space, the vulnerability is severe from Zhongwei to north of Hohhot, however, it’s better in north Great Khingan. Key words Chinese northern farming-pastoral region; vulnerability; coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX)

全球气候变化的核心是全球变暖。工业化以来, 全球平均陆地和海洋温度升高约 0.8℃, 特别是20 世纪 50 年代以来, 人们观测到许多前所未有的气候变化现象, 全球平均陆地和海洋温度升高约0.6℃, 积雪数量减少, 海平面上升, 温室气体浓度

增加[1]。自然生态系统对气候变化非常敏感, 最近20 年, 全球自然生态系统的破坏日趋严重[1–6]。全球气候变暖、人类活动排放的温室气体是导致自然生态系统破坏的重要原因之一[1]。

IPCC 第 5 次评估报告利用世界气候研究计划

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