Analysis of Accident Risk in China’s Petrochemical Industry

ZHAO Yan, XU Jianhua†

ACTA Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis - - Contents -

College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871; † Corresponding author, E-mail: jianhua.xu@pku.edu.cn

Abstract To design good policies for managing accident risk in petrochemical industry requires a sound understanding on the accident risks in the petrochemical industry. The authors estimated the parameters of the distributions of the frequencies and consequences of accident risks in the petrochemical industry by using Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis, based on the information of 1479 accidents in petrochemical industry from 2006 to 2015 collected from multiple sources. It was concluded that the frequency of the accidents in China’s petrochemical industry follows Poisson distribution with its mean being 156.00, the fatalities of the accidents follows generalized Pareto distribution with its scale parameter being 1.40 and its shape parameter being 0.36. The parameters of the distributions of the frequencies and consequences of accident risks vary sharply across regions. Key words petrochemical accident; accident risk; risk assessment

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