Research on the Interactive Relationship between China's Agricultural Logistics and Agricultural Economy Based on the Time Series Data from 1991 to 2014

China Business and Market - - 第一页 - ZHANG Jian-Jun1,2 and ZHAO Qi-Lan1

一定的滞后效应,对农业经济发展的推动作用较小。因此,各地政府应加强农业机械购置,提高农业机械化水平和科技含量,加大对农业技术的投入力度,促进农业经济的快速发展。

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Abstract:Based on the time series data from 1991 to 2014,the authors mainly carry out the study on the interactive relationship between agricultural logistics and agricultural economic development of our country with the method of cointegration analysis and error correction model. In addition,the authors also analyze the impact of such factors as agricultural capital investment and agricultural technology on the development of agricultural economy. The results show that:the level of agricultural logistics development has significant positive influence on the development level of agricultural economy; agricultural logistics development is the granger reason of the development level of agricultural economy;the short- term fluctuations of agricultural logistics development have less effect on the development level of agricultural economy,but its longterm fluctuations have more influence on the development level of agricultural economy;agricultural capital investment and agricultural technology has a positive influence on the development level of agricultural economy;and the output elasticity of agricultural technology is greater than the output elasticity of agricultural capital investment.

Key words:agricultural logistics;agricultural economic development;coefficient of logistic demand;total power of agri⁃ cultural machinery;total investment in agricultural fixed asset

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