Logistics Performance of Countries and Regions along the Belt and Road and China’s Trade Potential
（1.Chang’an University，Xi’an，Shannxi710064，China；2.Wuyi University，Wuyishan，Fujian354300，China；
3.National Academy of Economic Strategy，CASS，Beijing100028，China）
Abstract：Logistic development level，especially the level of transportation and logistic infrastructure，has important impact on international trade development. Logistic Performance Index (LPI) is the important index reflecting logistic development level and the degree of trade facilitation. According to LPI and the sub-indexes of 51 countries and regions along the Belt and Road， and with the help of Expanded Trade Gravity Model，the authors make the empirical analysis on the impact of logistic performance on China’s trade potential. It is found that：logistic performance in countries and regional along the Belt and Road is not high and differences of that among countries and regions are significant；LPI significantly affects the bilateral trade volume between China and countries and regions along the Belt and Road，such sub- indexes as customs efficiency，logistics infrastructure level，international transportation，logistics capacity and competitiveness has significant positive effect on China’s bilateral trade volume with countries and regions along the Belt and Road；and the impacts of LPI and its sub-indexes on China’s trade potential in different route are heterogeneous. To better promote the free flow of resources of countries and regions along the Belt and Road and the deep integration of market of these countries and regions，and promote the deep economic cooperation，we should，first improve the quality of transportation infrastructure of these countries and regions，and promote the construction of important international logistic channel；second，we should accelerate the construction of“single window”for border ports， popularize the pattern of“Secure and Smart Trade Line Pilot Program (SSTL)”，and improve the level of custom clearance integration of these countries and regions；and third，we should promote international logistic cooperation，and the service level and competitiveness of logistic enterprises in countries and regions along the Belt and Road.
Key words：the Belt and Road Initiative；logistics performance；China foreign trade；trade potential