Slow­down seen in petroleum use

Tack­ling en­ergy is­sues could lead to less re­liance on oil

China Daily (Canada) - - BUSINESS - By DU JUAN du­juan@chi­nadaily.com.cn

The av­er­age an­nual rise in China’s petroleum use will drop to 2.5 per­cent dur­ing the years 2013 to 2020 as the gov­ern­ment tries to slow down eco­nomic growth and re­duce carbon emis­sions, said ex­perts.

The fig­ure will keep de­clin­ing to 1.5 per­cent from the year 2020 to 2030, pre­dicted Dai Ji­aquan, deputy di­rec­tor of the Oil Mar­ket Re­search Of­fice with the CNPC Eco­nom­ics and Tech­nol­ogy Re­search In­sti­tute, on Thurs­day.

“Be­cause of the en­ergy-sav­ing and en­vi­ron­men­tal pro­tec­tion poli­cies, as well as tech­no­log­i­cal de­vel­op­ment of sub­sti­tutes for ve­hi­cle fuel, there will be a ten­dency for the con­sump­tion growth for petroleum to slow down,” said Li Li, re­search di­rec­tor at ICIS C1 En­ergy, a Shang­hai-based en­ergy in­for­ma­tion con­sul­tancy.

China will use 590 mil­lion met­ric tons of petroleum in 2020 with a smaller growth rate. By the year 2030, the coun­try’s petroleum use will be about 690 mil­lion tons, ac­cord­ing to es­ti­mates of the CNPC in­sti­tute.

China used 490 mil­lion tons of petroleum in 2012, a 4.7 per­cent in­crease year-on-year.

Mean­while, China’s nat­u­ral gas use last year reached 144.5 bil­lion cu­bic me­ters, up 12.8 per­cent year-onyear — much higher than the growth in petroleum use.

Dur­ing the 11th Five-Year-Plan (2006-10), China’s an­nual use growth of petroleum was as high as 7.7 per­cent on av­er­age.

China Petroleum and Chem­i­cal In­dus­try Fed­er­a­tion es­ti­mated in a pre­vi­ous re­port that China’s petroleum an­nual growth in use will be lower than 5 per­cent on av­er­age dur­ing the years 2011 to 2015.

“As China fur­ther im­proves its eco­nomic struc­ture, the en­ergy con­sump­tion for unit GDP will con­tinue to be re­duced, which leads to slower petroleum con­sump­tion growth,” said the re­port.

The In­ter­na­tional En­ergy Agency’s newly re­leased out­look echoed the trend, say­ing that In­dia will be­come the coun­try with the fastest growth in petroleum use af­ter 2020.

The out­look also men­tioned that re­new­able en­ergy will em­brace its rapid de­vel­op­ment in the next decades.

By 2035, re­new­able en­ergy will ac­count for half of power gen­er­a­tion glob­ally with China own­ing the largest share of new re­new­able power gen­er­a­tion, ac­cord­ing to the out­look.

In ad­di­tion to re­new­ables, Li said a boom in nat­u­ral gas use will also be be­hind the slower growth in petroleum use.

It is ex­pected that the num­ber of ve­hi­cles us­ing nat­u­ral gas as fuel will reach 2.1 mil­lion in 2015 in China and con­tinue to grow to 3.2 mil­lion in 2020, which will re­sult in a soar­ing use of nat­u­ral gas in the fol­low­ing years, ac­cord­ing to Dai.

“China has a huge po­ten­tial for nat­u­ral gas use in the trans­porta­tion sec­tor as the num­ber of clean en­ergy ve­hi­cles con­tin­ues to grow,” he said.

Dai es­ti­mated that China’s nat­u­ral gas con­sump­tion in the trans­porta­tion sec­tor will reach 32 bil­lion cu­bic me­ters in 2015 and grow to 56 bil­lion cu­bic me­ters in 2020, which means it will re­place 26 mil­lion tons of petroleum in 2015 and 46 mil­lion tons in 2020.

China has wit­nessed an in­crease in nat­u­ral gas use among the pri­mary en­ergy mix­ture.

Be­tween 2000 and 2012, China’s nat­u­ral gas use grew from 900 mil­lion cu­bic me­ters to 16.6 bil­lion cu­bic me­ters.

The trans­porta­tion sec­tor ac­counted for only 4 per­cent of to­tal nat­u­ral gas use in 2000. The fig­ure grew to 11 per­cent in 2012.

LIU HAIFENG / XIN­HUA

Work­ers man an oil drill at the Da­gang oil­field in Tian­jin. A study has found that China will con­sume 590 mil­lion met­ric tons of petroleum in 2020 and about 690 mil­lion tons by 2030.

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